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January 16, 2009

Future Shock

Padres Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein

top 11 prospects

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Four-Star Prospects
1. Mat Latos, RHP
2. Kellen Kulbacki, RF
3. Adys Portillo, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Kyle Blanks, 1B
5. Jaff Decker, OF
6. Cedric Hunter, CF
7. Allan Dykstra, 1B
8. James Darnell, 3B
9. Matt Antonelli, 2B
10. Jeremy McBride, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Drew Cumberland, SS

Just Missed: Logan Forsythe, 3B; Will Inman, RHP; Will Venable, OF

Ranking Challenges: Who's number one? You could make an argument for many of the players here, and while I'm confident as to the four-star prospects, there are people who'd add Blanks and Hunter, although both players have their fair share of doubters as well. As for positions 10 and 11, there were ten candidates, which says more about the mediocrity of the system than it does about the talent.

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31 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

Aaron/YYZ

(34268)

KG, what's the continuing knock on Inman, just that the stuff doesn't match up with his results? Is he viewed as something like another Yusmeiro Petit?

Jan 16, 2009 10:54 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Not the worst comp, although he throws far fewer strikes than Yusmeiro. Hard to find people who see him as more than a No. 5, and that's not even universal.

Jan 16, 2009 11:01 AM

PCoughlan

(27013)

Is Allan Dykstra any relation to Lenny?

Jan 16, 2009 10:56 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

No, no relation to Lenny, or Cutter, Lenny's son in the Brewers system.

Jan 16, 2009 11:00 AM

billm21

(35836)

KG, what kind of buzz were you getting on a couple of the other recent Latin signees --- Luis Domoromo and Alvaro Aristy?

Jan 16, 2009 11:26 AM

rating: 1

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Domoromo: Big toolsy kid with huge power ceiling but lots of swing and miss.

Aristy: Plus defensive tools across the board, should hit enough to play every day, but probably as a back of the order type.

Jan 16, 2009 12:13 PM

hurling

(10264)

Will Venable had a monster year in 2008 - but not good enough to make the top 11? Surprising...

Jan 16, 2009 11:41 AM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Few see him as more than a fourth outfielder, and he really doesn't have any projection left.

Jan 16, 2009 12:15 PM

krgrecw

(44970)

KG? so you agree with Sickels that Kulbacki wins the josh willingham award of 08 as the kid who can fu**ing hit but not much else?

Jan 16, 2009 12:02 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I think he's toolsier than Willingham (and yes, that's not saying much at all). I think he'll be good enough to be an acceptable corner outfielder.

Jan 16, 2009 12:15 PM

brianpsmith

(832)

Not included in Darnell's line here is the fact he appeared with High-A Lake Elsinore in the Cal League playoffs as an injury replacement for Kulbacki. He had a couple big extra-base hits in the Lancaster series, for what it's worth.

Jan 16, 2009 12:59 PM

rating: 0

Gordon

(1198)

How does Travis Denker fit into the scheme of things? Is he one of the ten candidates for the last two spots?

Jan 16, 2009 13:12 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Not really, maybe on the fringe of that list. It's tough to be a undersized, bad defensive 2B unless you can really mash, and he's just a decent hitter.

Jan 16, 2009 14:30 PM

batpig

(1607)

Doesn't this comment: "Kulbacki will play at Double-A San Antonio in 2009, a tough place to put up big power numbers. If he can succeed there, he'll be firmly in the Padres future plans" somewhat contradict your strangely low ranking of Kyle Blanks, who is pretty much the consensus #1 Padres prospect on any other list? The dude did slug .500+ with 20 homers at that same San Antonio, at age 21. Why is he below Kulbacki after having already breezed through the "litmus test" challenge for Kulbacki NEXT year?

Jan 16, 2009 15:01 PM

rating: 1

batpig

(1607)

Plus, it ain't like Kulbacki is some jeans-selling Adonis.

Jan 16, 2009 15:03 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

He is compared to Blanks.

Jan 16, 2009 16:32 PM

batpig

(1607)

Really? I missed that part, the name "Blanks" is not mentioned in the Kulbacki profile, and "Kulbacki" is not mentioned in the Blanks profile. I think the question still stands -- why does Blanks, who has already surpassed the test that you posed for Kulbacki NEXT season, at a younger age, rank lower? Just 1st base vs. outfielder?

Jan 21, 2009 16:41 PM

rating: 1

gogotabata

(37184)

Were Jonathan Galvez or Simon Castro close to sniffing this list?

Jan 16, 2009 15:12 PM

rating: 0

radams1800

(9973)

I'm really curious about Galvez. Everything I've read about him points to him being something special. I'm guessing that his age is a big strike against him and the jury will be out for another year or two.

Jan 16, 2009 17:07 PM

rating: 0

R.A.Wagman

(32721)

Is there any hope for anything out of Matt Bush these days?

Jan 16, 2009 15:28 PM

rating: 0

radams1800

(9973)

The padres moved him to the 40 man roster before the rule 5 draft but I think that says more about the lack of talent in the organization than Bush's potential.

Jan 16, 2009 17:12 PM

rating: 0

West21

(16224)

The top 10 under 25 is just a big pile of bad.

Jan 16, 2009 16:52 PM

rating: 0

Matt

(35980)

the report on dykstra sounds good: plate discipline, intelligence, mucho power. what holds him back from being higher ranked? if it's fielding and running, that doesn't seem to hold back all the other first base prospects...

Jan 16, 2009 19:12 PM

rating: 0

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

I'll be the first to admit a bias against 1b-only types. You have to be awfully damn sure that's an impact bat, or it's not much of a prospect. NL first baseman had an 838 OPS in 2008, and that's everyone, not just starters. If you're not positive a guy can mash, it's hard to get too crazy. Plus with Dykstra, he's so below average in every other aspect of the game. 30 runner, 40 defender, just not much else there.

Jan 16, 2009 21:40 PM

Steve D.

(5312)

Welcome back, Goldstein!

Jan 16, 2009 20:34 PM

rating: 1

Kevin Goldstein

BP staff

(27460)

Good to be back! Look for the Giants on Tuesday and around three a week from here on out.

Jan 16, 2009 21:41 PM

salamander

(15530)

Hot damn!

Jan 17, 2009 14:58 PM

rating: 0

mars2001

(28654)

Is Cesar Carrillo really not a Top10 prospect for the Padres? (or is it just THAT unlikely for him to ever be healthy enough to play?)

Jan 19, 2009 13:34 PM

rating: 1

jayman4

(4850)

Kevin,

Do you know of any data-driven assessments of franchise drafting? Something like the current VORP of each draftee going back 10-15 years. Also, I wonder the distribution of VORP by draft round, by year. Is the first round consistently dominant or does one see variation, enough hidden gems to make it much more of a crapshoot (or incompletely analyzed process)? I did a clumsy assessment, looking at the top VORP producers last year to see which round they were drafted in and the first round, not surprisingly, was the typical answer.

Jay

Jan 19, 2009 15:06 PM

rating: 0

salamander

(15530)

Dykstra = Thome?

Jan 20, 2009 08:58 AM

rating: 0

Tom Pfister

(40951)

Why are there two #1's in the under-25 rankings?

Feb 27, 2009 16:21 PM

rating: 1

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Prospectus Q&A: Wes Li... (01/18)

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