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January 5, 2009

Prospectus Today

Too Much Sun

by Joe Sheehan


Bear with me for a moment. I recognize that this is a relatively small issue I'm about to get into, but it's Monday, and I'm a little under the weather, and there's not much else going on other than 40,000 Manny Ramirez rumors. I understand he's accepted a sponsor's exemption to the FBR Open, and will be guesting on a three-episode arc of "House" during the May sweeps.

Last month, the Florida Marlins non-tendered right-handed reliever Joe Nelson. Nelson was the Marlins' best reliever last season, leading the team's pen in strikeouts, strikeout rate, K/BB, and ERA. That he doesn't show as well in the context-adjusted stats—he was just sixth in WXRL—points to how he was used, but inning-for-inning, he was their best reliever. The Marlins, apparently concerned about Nelson's eligibility for arbitration, declined to offer him a contract and allowed him to become a free agent. Nelson subsequently signed a one-year, $1.3 million contract with the Rays. It seems fair to say that the free-market salary Nelson got represents an upper bound on his potential cost, so the Marlins probably could have kept him for that same $1.3 million. Again: their best reliever last year, and they'd already traded away Kevin Gregg and cut loose Doug Waechter. Non-tendering him was a pretty questionable decision at the time.

Fast forward to last week, and the news emerges that the Marlins have reached an agreement with Scott Proctor on a contract for 2009 worth $750,000, and another $250,000 in incentives. Now, the Nelson decision looks so bad you might think it makes cars for a living.

The Marlins had a reliever coming off of a healthy and effective season, with some history of success in his past, who they could have retained for a minimal investment. Instead, they cut him loose and brought in a pitcher who, although two years younger, is a much higher risk, is coming off of a brutal season curtailed by injury, and who looks for all the world like a pitcher broken by a two-year stretch of overuse. Proctor is 26 months younger than Nelson, but his elbow is much, much older than 32.


                 IP     RA   BB   SO   HR
Proctor 2008   38.2   6.98   24   46    7
Nelson 2008    54.0   2.67   22   60    5

For want of $550,000—probably less than that—the Marlins traded the guy on the bottom for the guy on the top. Those lines don't reflect that Proctor will be coming off of elbow surgery, or that he made 83 appearances in both 2006 and 2007 before the elbow went bad in '08. Moreover, it's not like Scott Proctor has any upside. He's 32, and we know what his career years look like. He's never had a season like Nelson's 2008, and while it's a lot to expect that Nelson would repeat that performance, the gap in the two pitchers' upsides is significant. The Marlins don't have a slew of young arms they're making room for, as is made clear by their need to sign Scott Proctor and his sling. They simply wanted to save what amounts to a rounding error in the overall team budget.

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