Tavares's value is in his batting average, and his batting average isn't vey good.

That's a problem.

Batting average does fluctuate a lot without any change in the underlying skills - complare Ichiro's 2003 with Ichiro's 2004 and note that he was basically the same player, with an extra 70 points of BA in the second year - so there's always a chance Tavares can lay down a .400 BABIP and be a valuable player, but it's not predictable and not sustainable.

He's a bad signing if this is how you want to use him.

It's impossible to be optimistic about the Reds when next year's rotation will have Cueto, Volquez and Bailey, and the manager is still Dusty Baker.

This is a decent signing by the Reds since they really have no other outfielders besides Bruce and Dickerson. The bad move is letting him play every day and lead off.

They should give Dickerson shot. Had they brought Willy in to platoon with Dickerson vs lefties, and to come off the bench to utilize the skills that he does extremely well (the best bunter and base stealer in the majors), the Reds outlook for 09 would be a lot more bright.

Last year I made a three year bet with a friend that, over the 08, 09, and 2010 seasons, the Pirates would win more games than the Reds. It's moves like this that make me feel good about this bet.

Willy Taveras is the new Juan Pierre, complete with the "played for Colorado" and managed by Dusty Baker bits.

Just off the top of my head, is it more difficult than normal to play center field in Colorado? His fielding numbers in Houston were notably better. Thinking of what Will said in that Unfiltered post a couple weeks ago, perhaps Jocketty has some metrics that indicate that Taveras is likely to be a better-than-"expected" defensive asset.

Building on that, Volquez, Cueto, Harang, Arroyo, AND Owings were all FB-oriented pitchers last year, per ESPN stats. Thus building outfield defense might be disproportionately beneficial to the team's success.

Why then they feel the need to employ a defense-only shortstop....

Enough silliness...

Bring in Milton Bradley to play LF and platoon Dickerson and Taveras in CF.

Trade Phillips to Milwaukee (perhaps along w/ a minor league arm, like Maloney) for Weeks and Escobar.

Bat Weeks leadoff and Bradley 3rd or 4th.

That, right there, would be a step in the right direction, in my opinion.

(By the way, I do think Phillips is, overall, a good player. I just think he's overrated. I think now is the time to shop him. If we could get Weeks to lead off and Escobar to be the future SS in the Concepcion mold, I'd be thrilled. Weeks just has to become a .260 hitter and then his OBP would probably be .370 and he'd be a fantastic leadoff hitter. If Phillips hits .260 -- which he might -- his OBP will be .310. Phillips is a great fielder, but his OBP is brutal.)

well, reds fans and a couple prominent media people in cincinnati helped chase dunn out of town because of his non-clutchiness and strikeouts, so i guess we get what we deserve.

we apparently like low obp here, what with our manager being so anti-"clogging the bases" and a gm that thinks tavares should be a leadoff hitter, etc, etc.

the good news is that corey patterson won't be playing for the team this year... and as unimpressive as taveras is, he'll be better than patterson.

If Jocketty could get Escobar and Weeks for Phillips and Maloney that deal would've been done long ago, no way the Brewers even listen to that offer.

Bradley I don't really want a part of and I can't see the Reds going that route. The FA market has some top end guys and bottom feeders and with the possible exception of Baldelli there wasn't much there I liked. I think the trade route might be the best bet to fill the LF hole. What about talking to the Yanks about Swisher now that they have Tex.

I'm not sure how much difference there is playing in Coors instead of Minute Maid. One would think his wheels would help more in Colorado with the large gaps there, but perhaps the ball hangs up a little more there too making it a little easier to get under fly balls. In a small park like the GAP though, even with a fly ball staff, should outfield defense be that much of a priority?

at least they won't clog the bases

I liked this post not only for its analysis, but also its subject matter -- A middling team near the middle of the country.

I don’t mean to complain, but I think that as Baseball Prospectus has become more established, the issues discussed in the Prospectus Today has become more conventional: players and managers from baseball’s biggest teams.

I can’t fault anyone for covering flashier (and generally more successful) clubs. However, I’d like to see some of the little fish get the same great analysis and coverage.

Regarding what Jocketty says, when a GM signs a player the PR part of his job mandates that any good thing SOME-body might believe about the player is his to then say. So if he's signing Taveras for his 'D', he's also professionally obliged to talk about his upper limit 'O' potential as if it can be expected. Regardless of whether he honestly is silly enough to expect it, or actually juggling contingency plans at the same time he's mouthing those words.

I'd suggest that the major market teams, particularly in the offseason are making the most news. They also have the most options available, which makes dissecting their moves and potential moves a more useful exercise than debating the Pirates rotation.

Patterson was last years OF flop. He led off 32 times last year finishing with a .238OBP on the year. One of Dusty's boys?
Now, we have Taveras. Although his low OBP will actually be an upgrade from Patterson, there is little to get excited about here.
How about sticking Dickerson in the leadoff slot? Last year he had just as many extra base hits as Taveras with only a fraction of the Ab's
Extra base hits/ at bats in 2008
Dickerson 17/102
Taveras 18/479
An then there's the OBP
Dickerson .413
Taveras .308
Dickerson will only swipe a handful of bags, but the Reds need to look at the big picture here.

Milton Bradley really would have looked nice on this team, and would have made the Reds a true contender.

At least the Reds were on the periphery of contention at best prior to this signing. He MAY pump up the perceived value of some of their non-core pitching assets (SEE: Harang, if healthy), which Jocketty in the past has parlayed into admirable swag (READ: Bottenfield for Edmonds).

Now compare this to the Cubs' signing of Joey Gathright and the ominous proclamations of Piniella and Hendry about how often he will start in CF, and it makes a good argument that Taveras may not be the worst low-OBP speedster acquisition of the offseason.

Taveras is outstanding....as a 4th outfielder. As a starting centerfielder he flat out sucks. Low obps and slugging. He has a good arm in center and his speed gives him upside defensive potential and his offensive skills, such as they are, are smallball skills that play best off the bench. But handing him 650 PA's in that homerpark is a travesty of epic rallykilling proportion.

The money just came out. Per the Denver Post, "According to information obtained by The Denver Post, Taveras received $6.25 million on his two-year deal. He will make $2.25 million this season and $4 million in 2010. He can make an additional $250,000 this season if he reaches 600 plate appearances."

I hate my team.

Taveras -class a arm for a center fielder, stls at will -even on pitchouts, good chance at beating it, ie, best base stealer in baseball.
Just because Taveras has (mostly) sucked thus far on getting on base, knows what his job is - get on base. It's just that he only gets walks on pitchers' random control problems - at that rate - like Pierre in that regard.

Taveras is a worse hitter than Pierre, but with his limited and realistic approach with the appropriate emphasis on slap hitting, bunting, etc..don't think a 350 obp is out of the question. If he can get to that, can have some effective Pierre-like years.

$6.25MM over 2-years. I like the deal even less now that I've seen the figures.

The only way that Taveras differs from Pierre: Pierre has an historically bad deal, whereas Taveras has "just" a bad one.

I feel like we should all take a collection and send the proceeds to Otis Nixon.

Or Rickey Henderson. He's still claiming he's not retired, right?

Take that back..Taveras is surprisingly bad at making contact with the ball, which means he caught between a rock and a hard place...really can't afford to let anything looking like a strike go by, ie, really can't afford to check out the pitcher for having a bad control event and take good advantage of that random 2-3% walk rate that goes to anyone standing at the plate with a bat. Unlike say Pierre, Taveras lacks the skill of begging walks, even though he has the right attitude. A player like Taveras has to maintain a 340 obp, even that's low, and over a span of 600 at-bats, he's lookin like a very predictable 310 at best. unacceptable.

he's a dud.