Carrasco is a five-star prospect with a perfect world projection as a good third starter? Seems odd. Thanks for the list.

I'm a little confused as to why Carrasco is a 5 star prospect if his ceiling is that of a mid-rotation starter...?

My guess is that the star-rankings, like most of these rankings, combine potential with proximity. The fact that Carrasco is very close to being a #2-3 starter makes him a better prospect than Drabek, whose stuff profiles better but is further away with injury and makeup questions- of which Carraso doesn't seem to have any. A guy who is 21 and who dominated Triple A at the end of the season, even if he only can be a #2-3 starter, seems to me to be one of the more valuable prospects out there.

I've been hearing some talk about Donald filling in for Utley to start the season...what are the odds he will break camp with the big league club?

I thought the same thing. A 5 star prospect should be someone who projects as a frontline starter or an impact hitter. That would be like calling a 5 star hitter "a nice #7 hitter with some speed and good D at 2nd base". That was the weirdest prospect comment so far.

Kevin - why the low confidence on Savery? I've heard it from other sources as well, but no real explanation as to the why.
Thanks.

I can't wrap my head around Carlos being a five star prospect, I think he fits perfectly in as a four star prospect, however.

The Pirates are up next. Can't wait!!!!!

Are the "Just Missed" guys 3-star or 2-star prospects?

Where would Greg Golson rank if he were still in the system?

Just for the record, the Phillies technically only have 1 up-the-middle MVP - that's Jimmy Rollins. Ryan Howard won the other one, though Chase Utley is certainly MVP-caliber.

Even though 3rd starter is overused in an incorrect way, that still wouldn't mean a five star prospect. That would mean guys like John Lannan, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathan Sanchez, Ian Snell, Jeremy Guthrie, Greg Smith and Gil Meche would have all been 5 star prospects. This seems like more of a four star player. I know you were on the edge about it, but I still feel it's a reach.

I think the best justification for giving Carrasco 5 stars is that, because he is only 21, he still has a legit chance to take another step forward.

Think of it this way ... Carrasco is on the younger end of the college juniors that were drafted in 2008 (Alvarez, Smoak, Matusz, Posey, etc.). He is literally 1 day older than Posey. But he has already past AA and shown success in limited AAA exposure. He is at least a year ahead of all the college guys from the 2008 draft and passed a major hurdle by proving himself in the high minors.

And when KG (or any other prospect guru) talks about a guy's ceiling, there is always some chance the guy takes another step forward and exceeds his "ceiling." This happens quite a bit (guy adds a few MPH to his fastball, makes a huge leap in control/command, etc.). So there is at least some chance Carrasco takes that step forward and develops into an ace. And given his age and experience, I venture to say Carrasco has a better chance at taking this step than most pitchers, even if his current stuff doesn't profile as more than a 2/3 without taking that step.

Assuming he stays relatively healthy, Carrasco probably has a 5% chance of being an ace, a 20% chance of being a #2, a 30% chance of being a #3, and a 45% chance of ending up as a back-end or good bullpen guy. I think he gets 5 stars because you have to tip your hat to his age and the fact that he still has a much better chance to take another step forward than most guys.

Put another way, if he put up these exact same stats but was 2 years older, he would still be a good prospect deserving at least 3 stars, maybe 4.

What about John Mayberry?