Prospectus Today: The ... (12/18)
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December 19, 2008 Prospectus TodayThe Top o' the Market
With CC Sabathia safely ensconced in a huge pile of money and checking out prices in the New York real estate market, the priciest free agent remaining is first baseman Mark Teixeira. While I value Teixeira more highly than some, and certainly more highly than I do Sabathia, the big pitcher's seven-year, $161 million contract seems like a reasonable estimate for how Teixeira will do in the market. He may get—and deserve—more, or he may take less, but that's the range we're talking about. We do seem to be having some trouble figuring out who'll be signing the big checks, though. After what seemed like most of the American League dropping in on him over the past week, the race now seems to be between teams trying to get as far away as possible. Whether negotiating tactic, fear of a big number, or just a rush home for the holidays, interest in Teixeira has waned as quickly as it waxed, leaving him with perhaps just a couple of suitors as Santa puts away some carbs and sorts through the bubble teams trying to make the "Nice" list for 2008. This is a strange turn of events. Teixeira is the top of the market, and not in the way that Alfonso Soriano and Barry Zito were as above-average players who just happened to be free agents at the right time. Teixeira is the first-base equivalent of Carlos Beltran, a complete player who hits and fields, is available with a number of years left at his peak, and can be expected to decline gradually when the time comes. The trades that split Teixeira's last two seasons may have cost him two Gold Glove Awards, and having that hardware would help reinforce that Teixeira is a two-way player worth a win or two per year on defense alone. It's that defensive value that has had me writing that Teixeira should be the Yankees' top priority this season. With his bat and glove, he would be the perfect replacement for Jason Giambi; few teams have suffered such poor defense at first base. Moreover, Teixeira's anticipated $22-24 million salary would effectively replace Giambi, giving the team an upgrade at minimal added payroll. The Yankees, however, have focused on upgrading their pitching. The Red Sox publicly backed away from Teixeira yesterday, which seems more like a negotiating tactic than anything else. Then again, they are the one team that doesn't have an open slot for Teixeira. Were they to sign him, they would have to trade one of Kevin Youkilis or Mike Lowell, and while dealing the latter is attractive, it's hard to find a market for a 34- or 35-year-old owed $26 million who was last seen walking off the post-season stage with a bad hip. Also, because the Sox have a superior first baseman in Youkilis, they wouldn't get quite the benefit that other teams would; in fact, signing Teixeira would probably weaken their defense slightly, by forcing Youkilis to third and Lowell off of the team.
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
Outside of him not wanting to play there, is there any good reason the Indians haven't made a strong play for him? He'd be a tremendous upgrade on their offense and defense, enough to potentially put them near the top of the AL.
Are we sure that the Indians want to spend that much money, when they're not sure that Victor Martinez isn't a 1B in the end anyway? Obviously Teixeira is still an upgrade there, but not necessarily $22MM worth of marginal difference . . .
Matt Laporta makes the 22 million you'd spend on Teixeira better spent elsewhere.
Obviously, Not saying he's better. But there's no reason to spend that money on 1b when you probably have a good answer in 2010 if not 2009.