Prospectus Today: Over... (12/12)
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December 14, 2008 Prospectus TodaySet Free
The decision whether to offer a player a contract by the December 13 deadline is automatic in most cases. Where it is not, or more accurately, when the team declines to offer a contract, it makes for an interesting statement on that player. "We don't want you, we'd rather have the roster spot." You can argue that in some cases the decision is designed to avoid an arbitration award that the team may deem excessive, but since an arbitration-determined salary is almost always below market value, that doesn't carry much water. The list of players, 42 in all, who were cut loose by their teams isn't sexy. There are some highlights, but for the most part it's a group of players who haven't been able to get their careers going, either for performance or health reasons, and who have moved from "exciting" to "disappointing" in just a few short years. A number have been regulars on the transaction wire, such as Denny Bautista and Wil Ledezma. Injury cases, where a team seems to have decided that it won't pay a player to not play or play poorly as they work back from injury, include Takashi Saito, Scott Proctor, and Chris Capuano. There are players who have played in the World Series recently, such as Willy Taveras, and a bunch who have rings: Aaron Miles, Tyler Johnson, and Randy Flores. The biggest surprise, in my eyes, was the Orioles giving up on Daniel Cabrera, Cabrera has never come close to meeting the expectations set by his talent and his performance in 2005 and 2006, when he was a strikeout/ground-ball machine who needed just an improvement in his command to become a number two starter. That improvement never came, and in chasing it, Cabrera lost what he did well and watched his strikeout rate fall to half of its peak last season, his second straight with an ERA above 5.00. The innings he threw and his service time would have led to a mid-seven-figures arbitration award, regardless. I can almost understand the decision... almost. Cabrera has shown few signs of improvement, and will be kind of expensive for a fourth or fifth starter. At the same time, the Orioles aren't exactly deep in the rotation. They have prospects coming, and coming quickly, but the major league rotation could use some bodies. To take a pitcher who at the least has established that he can make 30 starts and who retains his upside—if little chance of getting there—and turn him loose just for want of some cash seems a little shortsighted. If this were a different team, one needing to win a lot of games in '09, or one with seven or eight starters, I would feel otherwise. Cutting loose Cabrera denies the Orioles a player they could use, and cuts them off from the chance that he could find his way back. That the Orioles, who know him as well as any team, would let him go is valuable information, but I can't help but think that Cabrera is going to have 425 soft-focus, "they didn't believe in me" features written about him next summer as he starts the year 6-1, 2.66 for a new team. At least Cabrera was a back of the rotation guy for his team by performance. The Nationals cut their number two starter from last season, Tim Redding, after he made 33 starts and threw 182 innings—both team-leading marks—with a 4.95 ERA. Redding was homer-prone and posted a marginal strikeout rate, but you would think a team that used 13 starting pitchers in 2007 and 11 last year would see the value in keeping a pitcher who can take the ball that often. As with the Orioles' decision, I suspect that both of these cuts reflect a front-office mindset that is overrating the team's short-term future. Both of these teams need to play for 2010 and beyond, and in 2009 they would do well to have some stability at the cost of performance. Given that both teams are chasing Mark Teixeira, they would appear to have delusions of grandeur, seeing Cabrera and Redding not as assets on a bad team, but as below-average pitchers with limited upside. I'm not sure the answer there isn't "both," but I do know that neither team is so deep in pitching that they should be giving away talent.
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
It might not end well for AJ and the Yanks, but I think right now the Yanks are way more concerned with how it will begin than with how it will end. As long as it begins well, the team will be happy.
I think it will will begin and end very well for AJ, $82.5 million is a lot of money...
When you give someone a five year contract worth $80 million you need to pay attention to how it beings and how it ends.
Joe hates him some AJ Burnett.