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November 10, 2008

Prospectus Today

The Arizona Fall League

by Joe Sheehan

Less than 18 hours after the last pitch of the World Series, I was sitting in the sunny, warm stands of Scottsdale Stadium watching baseball. The contrast was striking in just about every way—temperature, intensity, caliber of play, size of crowd, my alertness level—but the Arizona Fall League provides an opportunity to rage against the dying of the light that is the end of the baseball season. If this is denial... no, it's not!

Just eyeballing the rosters and following the coverage coming out of the league, it certainly seemed as if the league was deeper this year, especially on the pitching side. There are more high-value young pitchers on rosters who already have MLB experience, such as Max Scherzer, Philip Hughes, and Clay Buchholz, and the caliber of hitting prospects seems to be up a tick as well. Scherzer was gone when I got there and I didn't see either of the other two, but in general, sending players like that to the AFL can only be a good thing. The caliber of pitching in the league had slipped so far in recent seasons that evaluating the hitting prospects was becoming problematic.

As you read what follows, remember one primary rule: I Am Not A Scout. I've watched a lot of baseball, I've talked to people, I spent time out there listening to First Pitch Arizona prospect hounds like John Sickels, Deric McKamey, and Jason Grey, but I am not a scout. Take all of the below with many grains of salt.

For me, the biggest surprise of the weekend was Eric Young Jr. I hadn't considered him a prospect, instead seeing him as more of a speed guy who didn't have much feel for baseball. He's played in some excellent hitters' environments coming through the Rockies system, so his reasonably impressive stat lines were a bit inflated. Problems making contact and so-so stolen-base rates added to the image of a player more on the Reggie Abercrombie end of the tools scale.

Watching him last week, though, I saw a lot of skills mixed in. From the left side of the plate, he both yanked a homer off the scoreboard at Phoenix Municipal Stadium and beat out a well-placed bunt to the right side. I also saw him work a six-pitch walk. In three games, he showed some power, some plate discipline, and plenty of speed. It's not enough to make him a regular—he's mediocre defensively at second base and incredibly awkward in left field—but watching him, you could see how he'd be a valuable player on a bench right now, able to lead off innings, pinch-run, and be used in double-switches.