Prospectus Today

Decisive Drama

by Joe Sheehan

Someone's rui... nope, wait, used that one.

It's not a bad notion, though. Last night's NLCS Game Four was the senior circuit's answer to ALCS Game Two, a dramatic series of great plays, controversial decisions, and lead changes that left fans slack-jawed and breathless. From the opening lineup (Juan Pierre?) through the middle innings (Chase Utley!) and the dramatic denouement (MATT STAIRS!!!), last night's game was a well-crafted symphony, playing on our emotions, bringing us up and taking us down, and in the end, leaving us, Dodgers fans, Phillies fans, baseball fans, agreeing on one thing: baseball is a great game.

What will stay with you the longest depends on your particular loyalty. I have no rooting interest, but I do have a longstanding affection for Matt Stairs, who I remember as a second-base prospect for the Expos back in my college days. That particular career path ended abruptly, but Stairs just kept hitting, was an early BP favorite, and ended up, to some extent, as the public image of the early-Billy Beane A's, a fireplug who raked and didn't have much defensive skill. When Stairs swings, he swings hard, but he also works counts and draws walks and even hits lefties from time to time. He's never even had a chance to play this far into a season—three Division Series appearances were his furthest previous—so that he would be able to push his team within a game of the World Series last night, crushing an absolute bomb into the right-field bleachers... that's a great moment for a guy who has been around a long time without having moments like that.

Prior to that homer, Chase Utley had the top spot in my mind. Utley's defense is terribly underrated—his +/- numbers in John Dewan's system are off the charts—but that might change some after his game-saving catch and diving tag in the sixth, turning a double play that got the Phillies off the field down just two runs. The case for Utley as MVP—and there's been one in each of the last two seasons, even as the guys around him get the love—is in no small part built on his being a +10, +15 second baseman who also happens to hit like that. Because he doesn't often make the spectacular play, no one realizes how good he is. He more usually just turns baseballs into outs.

Of course, Shane Victorino was all over this game, a day after being the center of controversy. In the first inning, he short-circuited a big inning by grounding into a double play, a rare event; Victorino grounded into just eight all season, and his DP% of 11.2 percent was below average. In the sixth, Victorino was asked to lay down a sacrifice with men on first and second and nobody out, facing a rookie pitcher who hadn't retired a batter yet. In a game loaded with managerial miscues, this was a big one; it was reminiscent of the 2001 World Series, 10 days of watching Bob Brenly and Joe Torre play "live grenade" with the World Championship. Giving Kershaw an out when he hadn't gotten one on his own is a standard mistake, but bunting runners over to bring up the inevitable matchup—Kershaw versus Dobbs, or after the inevitable dance steps, Park versus Feliz—was giving away value. As I put it in last night's chat, you can have Victorino face Kershaw with first and second and no out, or Feliz face Park with second and third and one out. Oh, Ryan Howard is the lead runner, so you're probably going to need a hit to score him. In a tied game, in a later inning, the latter gambit might be viable, but down one in the sixth, there's no way you should choose it. Feliz and Taguchi both popped out, and even though a Park wild pitch enabled the tying run to score, the tactical decision was awful.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

31 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

jkaplow21

(27759)

Lidge didn't come in with a runner on second, he gave up a double to Manny with nobody on and two outs (though Manny was struck out on the pitch prior).

Oct 14, 2008 10:21 AM