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October 13, 2008

Player Profile

Jon Lester

by Marc Normandin and Eric Seidman

Jon Lester has made headlines each of the past few seasons, but this is the first year that he's garnered attention due to his performance as a major league starting pitcher. Prior to the end of the regular season, Red Sox announcer Jerry Remy stated that Jon Lester was the best pitcher in the Red Sox rotation, and based on his performance both this season and in the playoffs, it's a tough position to argue against. How did he get to this point, and will he able to keep it up in the future?

Jonathan Tyler Lester was selected by the Red Sox in the second round of the 2002 amateur entry draft as their first overall pick, since they lost their own first-rounder due to the free-agent signing of Johnny Damon. He was a standout basketball player at Bellarmine Preparatory School in Tacoma, Washington, and in addition to pitching, he was also a first baseman. The 18-year-old was given a $1 million bonus to sign with the club, the largest of anyone selected in the second round, and was assigned to the Gulf Coast League Red Sox to start his professional career. Since he didn't sign until mid-August, Lester was able to pitch just 2/3 of an inning total, and would have to wait until 2003 to do anything substantial.

Baseball America would rate Lester as the eighth-best prospect in the Red Sox organization, comparing his athleticism to that of Mark Langston, and saying that "his fastball has room to grow because he has a projectable body and easy arm action." In addition to the fastball Lester had a changeup, and his curveball had improved during instructional league, though it was a pitch that still required refinement. His first full season in the minors went well, though it was obvious that Lester was still raw and needed more experience to develop his repertoire and approach. He posted a 3.65 ERA, but struck out just over six hitters per nine while walking 3.7 in 106 innings pitched. It was certainly good for a 19-year-old, but he suffered from tightness in his shoulder early on in the season, and, in a move reminiscent of the Dodgers' handling of Clayton Kershaw this year, he was kept on a strict pitch count for most of the season.

Baseball America would rank Lester eighth-best in the Sox system again for the 2004 season, saying that he was ready for High-A, but was still at least 2½ years away from the majors based on his raw stuff. Baseball Prospectus 2004 sang the same tune, saying "As a tall left-hander with good command and composure, he has the smooth repeatable delivery that scouts love. He'll need to improve his peripheral numbers to find success as he climbs the ladder." Lester would do just that pitching in the Florida State League; though his ERA was 4.28, he had a better season with 9.7 punchouts per nine to go with 3.6 BB/9 over 90 1/3 innings pitched. His velocity increased slightly, and he spent more time at the high end of the 88-93 mph spectrum he had flashed in his career, increasing his strikeouts significantly.

That was good enough to rate Lester the fourth-best prospect in an absolutely stacked Red Sox system—along with the lefty, the Red Sox had Hanley Ramirez (ranked first), Jonathan Papelbon (third), Anibal Sanchez (fifth), Dustin Pedroia (sixth), and Kelly Shoppach (eighth) in their top ten. Baseball America said that Lester had a "stronger arm" than most left-handers, as he had the ability to touch 96 and lived around 92-93 with his fastball. They also gave the cut fastball that he picked up midseason credit for his massive improvement after jumping a level, but stated that he also needed to refine his secondary pitches in order to earn a slot in the Boston rotation.