On the Beat: The Rays'... (10/10)
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October 10, 2008 Future ShockWho are the Next Rays?
The Tampa Bay Rays are the talk of baseball right now, and for good reason. After beginning the year with 10 straight seasons of 90-plus losses, they're in the American League Championship Series, and more importantly, this isn't a fluke year. Thanks to a core of young talent and an outstanding minor league system, the Rays are going to be a consistent playoff contender for the remainder of the decade, if not even further out. So what's the next team we might expect to do this? Let's look at four consistent (or at least semi-consistent) bottom feeders in each league and assess their chances, beginning in the American League. Resumé: They have finished fourth or fifth in the American League East with a losing record in each of the last eleven years, except for a third-place finish in 2004 (78-84) when they nonetheless finished 23 games out. Going Well at the Major League Level: Nick Markakis is an exciting young star, and center fielder Adam Jones has the potential to become the same kind of talent. Brian Roberts is a difference maker at the top of the lineup. After being given up on by the Indians and scouts throughout the league, Jeremy Guthrie has transformed into a reliable, above-average starter. Not Going Well at the Major League Level: Much of their run production comes from players who are not part of their long-term plans, such as Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora. After Guthrie, the rotation is an utter embarrassment, as no other starting pitcher had an ERA under five, and three of them (Garrett Olson, Brian Burres, and Radhames Liz) made 17 or more starts with a six-plus mark. The bullpen is a shambles as well; while George Sherrill recorded 31 saves, he also had untrustworthy peripherals, as did others who had good seasons like Jim Johnson and Matt Albers.
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Fantasy Focus: First Base Rankings Review
I think it will be a very interesting off-season for the Orioles. In some ways the key is whether they get a long term deal for Roberts. If they do, it means the O's hope to contend in the relative near term. If not, Roberts will be dealt for prospects, and we are looking at a long term plan. Either way the O's should be looking to try to get prospects for Huff, Hernandez and Mora. They should also try to get a mid-level starter or two to bridge the gap from the present to a future with Matusz, Tillman and the other promising arms who are not ready yet. Expect the O's to make a token effort to sign Teixeira (a local boy) but not get it done.
Signing Teixeira when this team is a couple years from contention would be a waste of resources in my opinion.