Prospectus Q&A: Sal Fa... (10/07)
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October 7, 2008 Future ShockArizona Fall League Preview
The Arizona Fall League kicks off its 17th season today, and while the league continues to struggle on a purely economic level, teams remain willing to subsidize the league due to its importance in the developmental process. One look at this year's All-Star game says it all, as 36 of the participants had time in the Arizona Fall League on their resumé. Instead of simply going through all of the rosters, here are ten stories I'll be following during the six-week campaign: 1. Are we getting ready for wave of catching talent? Teams are still desperate for catchers. There are still plenty of organizations that don't have a single player in the system who projects as an everyday backstop. Nonetheless, just as we had a run on highly-regarded third basemen recently, the same might be happening for catchers. Everyone knows that Baltimore's Matt Wieters (Rafters) is arguably one of the top prospects in the game following a .355/.454/.600 season split between High- and Double-A, but here's a quick quiz for you: What first-round pick in 2007 is also a catcher, played at the same levels as Wieters, and hit just as many home runs (27)? The answer is Toronto's J.P. Arencibia (Desert Dogs), who hit a combined .298/.322/.527 between the same two levels. There are some holes in his game—taking only 18 walks, and defense that, while projectable due to his athleticism, is not not quite there yet—but Arencibia somehow flew under the radar this year and deserves mention among the top catching prospects in the game. Beyond those two are a pair of catchers who are lined up to take over big-league jobs sooner rather than later based both on their own talent and the lack of any roadblocks ahead of them on their organization's depth charts. Milwaukee's Angel Salome (Javalinas) is coming off of a .360/.415/.559 season at Double-A, and while he remains below-average defensively, he's certainly better than Jason Kendall right now. On a similar level, Philadelphia's Lou Marson (Solar Sox) is already better than incumbent Carlos Ruiz. An on-base machine and an above-average defender, Marson hit .314/.433/.416 at Double-A this year, and will compete for the big-league job next spring. 2. Wait, where are those A's prospects playing? The Phoenix Desert Dogs roster didn't make much sense at first glance when seeing where some Oakland prospects were listed. Josh Donaldson? First base. Sean Doolittle? Outfield. Adrian Cardenas? Shortstop. While that might seem a little off at first, it also comes down to some of the intricacies of AFL roster development. Teams are able to assign 'priority players' in order to ensure playing time, and other players get moved, but don't read too much into it. Donaldson will actually be spending his mornings at Oakland's minor league facility working on his catching, Doolittle will learn to play the outfield without necessarily moving there, and Cardenas will play shortstop, second, and even some third base. Many wondered if he could stay at second, but Oakland surprised everyone by moving him over to the left side of the infield following their acquisition of Cardenas from Philadelphia in the Joe Blanton deal. He's a bit of a hard one to evaluate defensively; at shortstop, he has the soft hands and strong arm one would normally associate with the position, but his range falls well short (no pun intended) of big-league expectations.
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals
Seeing somewhat established players such as Buchholz and Hughes joining the AFL party begs the question, is this a work-out or a try-out. Both players stock took significant hits this season, however, both still exhibit tremendous potential. Seeing as the Red Sox already have a strong ML core coupled with a strong farm system (lacking a projectable catching prospect) and the Yankees probably looking to make a splash in both the FA and trade market, could this be a way to "resuscitate" their stock?
I would imagine the Red Sox would pursue offers for either Buchholz or Bowden if Marson is on the table. Likewise, I could see a short-sited Yankee trade netting them Holliday (along with his price tag). Either way, it should be interesting to see the numbers these guys put up, as well as the numbers others put up against them.
I'd argue Hughes is very much in the plans for the Yankees next season. I'm not so sure getting him time in the AFL is anything more than getting him developmental innings this year. Let's not forget Hughes was hurt and missed a lot of time this summer. What better chance for Hughes and the Yankees to get him innings than in the AFL against the top minor league talent? I would imagine the innings Hughes will throw in the AFL are preferred over an invitation to instructs.
As for next season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Hughes start in AAA, with the Yankees picking up a short term back of the rotation guy.
I agree that the AFL is important to Hughes, not necessarily developmentally, because I believe he has shown he can dominate that level. Clearly he needs the opportunity increase his workload, while developing a better understanding of how to get ML hitters out. I don't doubt Hughes ability to pitch at the big league level, I just believe that Hank/Hal are prepared to acquire "proven" commodities rather than placing value on what they believe is a question mark. He probably won't be moved, but not because faith has been restored. The glut of SP's on the FA market should assuage the front office from giving up young arms to get older, more expensive ones.
The difference with Buchholz is that the Red Sox have a pressing need at the catching position and have no way of efficiently solving it via free agency. By increasing his stock in the AFL, they may be able to net a L. Marson, M. Ramirez, or even C. Iannetta (all teams they reportedly have discussed some trade or another involving at least one of these players). Granted, if they could swing a deal sending Bowden in Buchholz' place, I believe that's a trigger they'd pull.