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October 3, 2008

Future Shock

Missing Bats

by Kevin Goldstein

A great deal of the e-mails and chat questions that I receive concern pitching statistics, with most writers wanting to know what numbers they should look at when evaluating prospects, and which are more relevant than others. My answer usually begins with the caveat that you really have to have scouting reports, and that you can never judge minor leaguers at any level by numbers alone. While it's still baseball, the minor league game is very different than the major league version, and there are certain skill sets that can lead to great-looking numbers in the minors, with little or no promise of big-league success.

That said, there are numbers that I do look at, and they involve keeping the ball out of play (strikeouts), and keeping runners off base (hit and walk rates). Combining those things, I use a simplistic measurement I call MBN, or Missed Bat Number. The simple formula is K-H-BB, or strikeouts minus baserunners allowed. Divide that by innings pitched and one gets MBR or Missed Bats Ratio. On a basic level, any positive number (which would indicate more strikeouts than runners allowed) is outstanding, and the all-time major league record is +116 by Pedro Martinez in his ridiculous 1999 season that included 313 strikeouts against only 128 hits and 32 walks. No ERA qualifier this year had a positive number, although Tim Lincecum came as close as one can get with 265 strikeouts, 182 hits allowed and 84 walks, for a -1. Falling just short of the innings minimum, Rich Harden was by far the most dominant starter in the big leagues this year, compiling a +24 mark in 148 innings by allowing just 96 hits, walking 61 and punching out 181. Closers are often in the positive range, as this year's leader among relievers was Mariano Rivera, with an amazing +30 in just 70 2/3 innings.

Getting back to prospects and the minors, there were 11 players with 100 or more innings who compiled a positive MBN, and here they are, ordered by MBR, and with a discussion on just how real it is in each instance.

1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants

Stats: +32 at Low-A (141.2-111-21-164); MBR: 0.23