Everyone thinks they’re a GM, so with the offseason approaching for 22 of the 30 teams, here’s a contest to find out how good you really are. I have three people inside the game ready to judge—an assistant general manager, a scouting director, and a baseball ops guy who have all worked on hundreds of trades. Enter your best ideas for an off-season deal in “Comments,” and the winner will receive a free month of BP Premium, plus the respect of your peers. You’ll be judged on whether or not your trade is realistic, the “win-win” nature of the deal, and its creativity. Each judge will rate the entries on a 1-10 scale, and if anyone hits a 30, I’ll figure out a bonus prize. Powered by Amp Traction, on the the injuries:
Carlos Zambrano (0 DXL)
In the first inning, Zambrano looked about as I expected: better than his last outing, worse than his no-hitter stuff. I was watching his arm slot, and while normally this isn’t that important to me where most pitchers are concerned, for Zambrano it’s the external sign of how his shoulder is feeling. When the cuff is inflamed, he drops down and has to sling the ball to get a few extra mph on it. Pitching to Jose Reyes, he was in the lowest of the good slots, but he consciously dropped down slightly to get the ball past Daniel Murphy. By the time he faced David Wright in the fifth, he was forced to again drop down just to get above 90. Sadly, this is what is expected in this scenario, and it puts Zambrano’s effectiveness for the playoffs into question. While he will be available, the Cubs have hinted that he’ll not be making the first start in the NLDS that he expects to. What the Cubs can expect from him next week isn’t much better than what they got from him on Wednesday.
J.D. Drew (0 DXL)
Drew returned to the lineup for the Red Sox in Wednesday’s win, but he only played into the third inning. Drew was pulled as a precaution but, when asked after the game, he said that he felt that things went well. He was tested in the field and on the basepaths, and other than some fatigue, he had no problems, and no issues with his back. He’ll be used judiciously for the rest of the week, and it’s not clear whether he’ll be asked to play a full game before the playoffs. The Red Sox are most concerned with his ability to recover and keep the back from tightening up, so he’ll be spending a lot of time with the Sox medical staff. Given all of their problems this season and their relative lack of impact on the team’s fortunes, I’m not sure if the medical staff or the front office is the team MVP this season.
Carl Crawford (50 DXL)
Troy Percival (5 DXL)
Crawford won’t be able to make it back in time to play during the season, but he is likely to get some batting practice in. While he’s unlikely to hit enough to convince the Rays to put him on the post-season roster, there has been some discussion about the value of his legs and defense. The Rays have a number of options, and they’ll use the remaining games to evaluate some of them; they may wind up with a very interesting playoff roster. With good outfield depth and multi-position players like Ben Zobrist and Eric Hinske, the Rays could put together one of the most flexible post-season rosters since the ’02 Angels. One interesting idea that was thrown around by a front-office type is that Percival is going to need to show that he can go on back-to-back days or the Rays may be inclined to leave him off of the roster, instead going with a shorter bullpen and a power arm like David Price who can go more innings. Percival is expected back on Thursday, but may actually get a “start” in order to make sure he can go on consecutive days. The Rays are still playing for the division and for home-field advantage, but if both of those are off the table this weekend, look for Joe Maddon to get creative.
Rafael Furcal (120 DXL)
The Dodgers activated Furcal from the DL after back surgery and a series of setbacks. With just a few games remaining, Furcal is going to have to show Joe Torre that he’s their best option at shortstop. Given his competition, that shouldn’t take too much, but he was feeling radiating pain in his legs as recently as a week ago, so Furcal’s inclusion on the playoff roster involves some risk. He’s unlikely to play any full nine-inning games at shortstop just to protect him. No one seems quite sure what Torre will be looking for, aside from some sign that he can play a decent short and hit more than Angel Berroa. If Furcal is ready, the Dodgers will likely drop Berroa and use Chin-Lung Hu, the better defender, as their middle infield backup, though Nomar Garciaparra is also an option if they elect to be really risky and focus on offensive value.
Ben Sheets (5 DXL)
Yovani Gallardo (0 DXL)
CC Sabathia (0 DXL)
Sheets won’t start today due to continued pain in his arm, so instead it will be Gallardo. It’s a bit of a surprise, but I tipped people to this on XM’s Fantasy Focus earlier this week. The thing is, Gallardo won’t be making a normal start; yes, he’ll start the game, but he’s essentially acting as a long reliever at the beginning of a “bullpen game.” He’ll be on a hard pitch limit, and is unlikely to throw more than 50 pitches. Sheets remains a possibility for a start or in relief, but only as part of the Brewers‘ kitchen-sink approach to pitching over the last week. Sunday will be Sabathia, again on short rest, after he won his Wednesday start (throwing 108 pitches). The Brewers are certainly getting their money’s worth out of Sabathia during his stint in Milwaukee, but the move will leave them without the big man available to start in any of the possible tie-breaker scenarios.
John Maine (30 DXL)
Maine declared himself ready to go after having only “normal soreness” after his simulated game. The Mets aren’t quite so quick to decide, though indications are that Maine will be activated today. Once again, Jerry Manuel appears to be the one who’s not excited by the idea of adding Maine to the bullpen, just as he’s resisted the idea of using Pedro Martinez as his closer. In a game where managers stay safe by being unoriginal, Manuel’s insistence on going with what’s available seems foolhardy. While Maine isn’t going to make a huge difference and may not be a significantly better option, there’s no reason to not at least activate him to make him available. Comparing the non-use of Maine to the use of Luis Castillo certainly brings some questions to mind, and using six pitchers behind Oliver Perez begs that many more questions as well.
Maicer Izturis (75 DXL)
One of the tougher things to do is follow players who won’t be available in the first round of the playoffs. They often don’t stay with the team, electing either to stay at home or to go to the instructional leagues to keep up with some baseball activities. Izturis is just getting back into the swing of things, and at best will be available for the World Series if the Angels make it that far. His thumb injury has kept him out since July, and while a mid-October return is possible, it will depend on the Angels’ needs at that point.
Todd Jones (1 last DXL)
Jones has chosen to hang it up rather than have surgery on his shoulder. He announced it in his Sporting News column, and he did it with self-deprecating style. While you may have cursed his white-knuckle saves or his old-school ways, he still had quite the career. I wouldn’t want to be Todd Jones, but I sure would have liked to have been in his shoes. Good luck, Todd, in whatever you choose to do next. Sadly, there’s always going to be some creaky closer that will fill the space in UTK.
Quick Cuts: Thanks for all of the participation in UTK
Interactive. It seemed to work out well, so I’m sure we’ll see that one again from time to time. … Mark DeRosa left Wednesday’s game with a strained calf after getting some big hits. No word on the severity, but I’ll be watching this closely. … Edinson Volquez is done for the season after being scratched from his latest start with a sore knee. … Andy Pettitte will miss his last start with a sore shoulder. … Chipper Jones will only pinch-hit for the rest of the season. … Aaron Cook has been shut down. … Todd Helton will have a microdiscectomy next week and is expected to be ready for spring training. … Willy Taveras is done for the season with a stress fracture in his shin. … Paul Maholm only lasted six in his last start of the year, coming up one inning shy of the Verducci Effect; his control problems reflect some of the attendant issues. … Adam LaRoche was back in the Bucs lineup, but still appears bothered by his hamstring. … Cliff Lee will be shut down unless their game against the White Sox is significant, but there’s no injury. … With the season ending soon and fantasy players on edge for position, I’ll be doing a normal UTK tomorrow rather than a Wrap. I get e-mails from time to time about how UTK has helped people win (or lose) their leagues. I’d love to hear from more of you via e-mail, especially the winners.
Thank you for reading
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Rangers begin to address SP depth while adding a big ceiling bat who is a few years off. Reds find a catcher for 2010 and beyond and decent LF for 2009.
The hangup could be the Reds giving up on Bailey to acquire a guy who would supplant 2007\'s first round pick, Devin Moreseco. The Rangers may be hesitant to trade away Teagarden without get a major leaguer in return.
None liked this idea and thought the Rangers got \"nothing.\"
The Rockies get:
-another young power arm
-a potential leadoff man who can cover a lot of ground and
-they finally get a legitimate 2B prospect.
Broad range here. One didn\'t think Bailey had value, another though the change might help. The 6 thought it was a nice return on Holliday but that he likely wouldnt do this deal, just build around it.
Washburn can provide innings at a reasonable cost for next year, holding Shaun Marcum\'s place for his return from TJ in \'10. With Burnett probably off the books, the extra three million in contractual cost can be covered by the Jays, and maybe they can get the M\'s to pitch in for part of that to help them make more room for Morrow next year.
None thought the Jays would make this deal on the increased salary unless the M\'s put some cash in.
All three said the Rangers wouldn\'t be getting enough.
No one thought COL would give up Stewart.
The Dodgers need at least one starting pitcher. It seems that they would be much better off using free agent money on Rafael Furcal, instead of risking more Kevin Brown/Jason Schmidt fiascos.
I\'m not sure what Hu is worth at this point, but I\'d try Anthony Swarzak (excelled at TripleA) and Philip Humber if needed.
The Twins could afford a starter and offer Slowey for Hu and Dewitt or Blackburn for Hu and Josh Bell or Ivan DeJesus.
Bailey (SP) for G. Laird (C) and E. Andres (SS).
Reds get a catcher that can play today and a SS that\'d be playing for a job in the spring. Plus Andres is a speed guy that Dusty could lead off with.
Rangers clear the lowest rung on some of their positional log jams. Catcher is obivous but they are keeping all the intriguing picks (possibly to tradae one later). Texas is also stocked at SS with Young now and Lemon in the future. And they get a Native son pitcher who is clearly the winner of the 2008 \"needs a change of scenery\" award.
7/4/6 = 17
This also leaves the Blue Jays trying to win the AL East with very inexperienced corner outfielders that haven\'t proven much. It seems the Jays are in excellent position right now.
Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Rios to Florida
Mike Jacobs, Kevin Kouzmanoff to Blue Jays
Cody Ross, Cameron Maybin, Chris Coglan, Sean West to San Diego
Matt Kemp could be the next Bernie Williams. What difference does it make if it\'s Kemp and not Melky or Austin Jackson?
Send Cano and Jackson (try Gardner first) for Kemp, but only if you\'ve got Orlando Hudson or the like set up to replace Cano.
Send Hughes and Kennedy for Matt Cain.
No more than half of pitching prospects work out. Cain is working out already. He pitches just as well outside AT&T as in, and might throw a lot more strikes with some offensive support. I think both sides get plenty here, but a useful minor-league player could balance this.
If you can add Melky to that deal for Rowand (and his salary) then go for it if you can\'t get Kemp. The Giants are lousy with outfielders. I also say Randy Winn would be an excellent complement to Nady and an excellent fourth outfielder--plays all three outfield positions, switch hits, hits both lefties and righties, excellent on-base skills, and steals bases. So, if not Rowand, this is the kind of complementary player the Yankees have always had and need now.
Sorry, Delgado.
Matt Cain for Adrian Gonzalez
A-Gon away from PetCo this year: .308/.369/.573
Cain away from AT&T this year: 3.88 (and 4.17 in his career)
All say \"need more for Cain. He\'s the best trade-available pre-arb pitcher.\"
It works, though Shoppach and Barfield are further along in pre-arb. Hermida is about to get expensive, but is the type of player CLE seems to like. Sinkbeil\'s the tough part here.
Brewers trade Prince Fielder to the Blue Jays for Alex Rios and Marco Scutaro
assuming Crede is brought back
So many pitchers, so little power...Kouz has improved his defense and ability to hit righties. If the Padres want more...give them more...Duensing? Bonser? Someone out of options or who doesn\'t fit into any long range plans.
How about Edwin Encarnacion for Slowey and Humber. The Twins might be willing to move Liriano because of greviance. Garza was seen as a malcontent and was moved.
A\'s have lots of 2b on the way (Weeks and Cardenas) and although Pennington is supposed to be a good fielder, he doesn\'t do anything offensively except walk, and Crosby officially appears to be a bust. Cedeno is a good young SS who is completely expendable for the Cubs, Hill needs a change of scenery and would be landing in a ballpark that could forgive his flyball tendencies. Cubs bullpen would be ridiculous with Wood, Marmol, Samardzija, and Street, and with Howry sucking and coming off the books soon, there is a spot available.
The Tampa Bay Rays trade Reid Brignac, Andy Sonnanstine (or Edwin Jackson), Desmond Jennings and one more pitcher like Heath Rollins to the Baltimore Orioles for Nick Markakis.
The O\'s need help all around, but especially at SS and Brignac would give them a young SS who could develop into a very good player. Either Sonnanstine or Jackson is better than anyone on the O\'s rotation not named Guthrie and Jennings could be special, adding to the O\'s minor league depth.
For the Rays, after having a system that was outfield heavy, the injuries to Crawford and Upton really showed how there is no depth there anymore (it is amazing they kept holding onto the lead for the AL East while starting the OF for the Durham Bulls). I think Markakis would give them another key to future success. Only problem would be how expensive Markakis would get for them.
Okay, so that last part is wishful thinking. Maybe substitute Argenis Reyes for Castillo and the giant bags with dollar signs on the sides.
Yanks sign O-dog, and Tex.
Giants sell Robinson Cano as a big bat (somebody might believe it) but know that it\'s montero that\'s the prize
4/5/5 = 14
Jays send Scott Downs to NYM - Mets absolutely need a releiver who can get batters out without handedness prejudice.
Mets send Endy Chavez, Mike Carp and a minor league arm (something High A, mid. level upside) to ChiC. The Mets never seem to mind sending away kids and Carp plus arm type seem to be within their means of expense. Cubs could use Chavez next season as another push to Pie. Edmonds is walking. The Cubs also lack a solid young prospect (Hoffpauer isn\'t really a prospect) to back up Lee in case of injury.
Cubs send Rich Hill to Tor. Jays need a starter next year, Rich Hill needs a change of scenery something awful.
Voila!
The trade should give the Mets some bullpen depth and fill the A\'s need of rebuilding and adding major league ready depth to their OF.
Jeff Francouer, Brent Lillibridge, and a minor league pitcher to Dayton Moore\'s liking (Reyes, Hanson, Morton..etc.. for:
Zack Greinke, and the carcass of Jose Guillen.
The only stretch I see is for the braves to take on Guillen, but I think Moore will insist on it, because I don\'t know how motivated he will be to move Greinke.
The braves get a young valuable starter in the mold of a young Maddux and a right fielder stop gap to Jason Heyward.
The Royals would be betting on the rise back to stardom for Francouer, rise to relevance for Lillibridge, and also a young starter to replace Greinke in the rotation.
The second trade comes next!
Kelly Johnson, Brandon Jones, and a minor league starting pitcher
to:
Oakland for:
Justin Duchscherer and a relief pitcher..
The braves get another starting pitcher they need that won\'t cost a fortune and some relief depth
Oakland gets a cost effective player to take Marc Ellis\' place.(Kelly Johnson)
More outfield depth in the corner(Brandon Jones)
and another starting pitcher prospect that they love to keep adding to their pile.
The key to both of these trades is twofold:
the need for Braves starting pitching next year is very dire
and the need to NOT go into the free agent market to get it is also just as dire.
They don\'t have the reputation for doing it anyway(always trade for it) and they finally are going to get some good draft picks out of this horrible setback of a season.
Don\'t wanna lose them on signing somebody like Ben Sheets or Derek Lowe.
Thoughts?
None though the Brewers would do this, but it\'s a credible offer to build from. Lee is a tough one to read on how a particular team would scout and how the Indians see him internally, esp with Carmona and Westbrook signed.
2) Daric Barton for Brandon Wood
The finances of the deal are too much for me to figure out, but they both are under (expensive) contract for 1 more year with teams that don\'t want them.
Orioles Get:
Chin Lung Hu, Rickie Weeks, Delwyn Young
Brewers Get:
Melvin Mora, George Sherrill, Hong Chi Kuo
Dodgers Get:
Brian Roberts, Lorenzo Cain, Carlos Villenueva
Dodger fan? :)
Thought process was something like:
Orioles need a SS desperately, and the Dodgers seem to be really down on Hu. Hey, the Dodgers need a 2B or 3B next year assuming they don\'t do something stupid and resign Blake! But that just shifts the blackhole from SS to 2B in Baltimore, maybe I can pull in a third team.. Ooh, Milwaukee seems to be burying Weeks, maybe he could use a change of scenery. They do have holes at 3B and Closer, maybe I can get Baltimore out from under that... Now what else do I need to shuffle around to even things up so this actually gets done *throws prospects into the mix all over*.
Baltimore gets younger with up the middle players that it needs, while giving up guys that won\'t be good when the rest of the roster is. Milwaukee has Hardy to shift to 2B, Escobar to play SS, and fills a pair of big holes. That it doesn\'t sufficiently address the pitching depth in MIL may be the scary part, although Gallardo/Parra/Suppan/MacDonald/Bush doesn\'t seem like *that* bad a rotation next year, with Jeffress knocking on the door. Dodgers obviously get the veteran leadoff hitter that is just the type of player Ned & Joe like, while giving up players they don\'t have a position for or seem to care about. Dewitt shifts back to 3B.
Comments on the misses in this reading of it welcome.
Not enough for Street, tho the market is very fluid on closers.
I think that deal works for both teams pretty well and is about market value for Street. Plus these teams worked out the Harden deal earlier, and Oakland seems willing to take on the Cub\'s excess talent.
Looking over Ivan\'s year I would hope the Dodgers say no but I still propose this trade because I could see the Dodger front office doing this. But I must ask: does Olsen still hold any viable value?
Sorry Will, but I\'m going to keep doing this as long as you allow. I haven\'t thought this hard since.............
Reasonable, but everyone thinks they\'d need to keep Dunn to make this possible and getting the Angels to deal anything is tough
The bait will be one of their young starting pitchers. Matt Cain makes the most sense. His age and make-up keep him very attractive to any other team who doesn\'t spend all day and night worrying about future costs.
While Ryan Howard is a good fit, he is a $10+ MM hitter and the Giants need more than one hitter to make the leap towards 85 wins and play-off contention. With Cain under control for three more seasons, anything the Giants get back would have to match/or exceed those years of control.
Matt Cain and Nate Schierholtz to the Chicago White Sox for 1B/OF Nick Swisher and 3B Josh Fields.
Brewers drop Fielder before he gets expensive (and before he suffers from Mo Vaughn syndrome) and get something for Weeks before his value drops further (he\'s already 26). Greinke pairs with Gallardo for a very strong 1/2, and DeJesus gives them a CF to replace Cameron and the leadoff man they\'ve been lacking. Slide Gamel into first, and that\'s a pretty good team.
The Royals get a marketable superstar for an attempt at contention (whether they should attempt this push or not is another matter, the Meche and Guillen signings indicate they\'ll try). They also get a flier on Weeks, who could still develop into an All-Star.
Twins send Boof Bonser, Francisco LIriano, and Joe Nathan to the White Sox for ........A.J. Pierzynski.
Twins then sign Armando Benitez 4yr/40m, opens up a spot to bring Livo back, and install Joe Mauer as their bullpen catcher.
If this isn\'t genius, I don\'t know what is. And it proves not everyone can be a GM.
This assumes that Teixeira goes elsewhere as a free agent. Gamel slides to first for the Brewers, Wood is groomed as their 3B, with likely trades of Hall and Hardy ahead.