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September 24, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Wednesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Athletics (75-82) at Rangers (76-82), 1:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Dana Eveland (163 IP, 4.14 RA, 1.46 WHIP, 114 K) vs. Matt Harrison (77 2/3 IP, 6.37 RA, 1.60 WHIP, 35 K)
Pythagorean Record: Oakland, 75-82 (628 RS, 655 RA); Texas, 72-86 (867 RS, 951 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Oakland, #19; Texas, #20
Prospectus: The A's and Rangers are playing out a minor drama in the season's final week as the pair battle back and forth for second place in the AL West. Oakland won the series opener on Monday night to move percentage points ahead of the Rangers for the first time in nearly two months, but the Rangers took second place back last night with a 6-4 victory. The A's could muster just six hits yesterday against the major league-worst Texas pitching staff, lowering Oakland's slugging percentage to a sluggish .366. That is the lowest any team has put up since the 1993 expansion Marlins slugged .346. The A's don't even have a few players who are putting up strong power figures—Jack Cust is at .465, but no one else on the team is even above .400 besides rookie Aaron Cunningham, who's slugging .429 in just 71 at-bats. Since the end of the 1970s, the only team to have just a single player slug .400 or better in at least 100 at-bats was the 1988 Astros, who slugged .351 as a squad despite the .478 effort of first baseman Glenn Davis. The 1992 Angels did them one better, slugging a horrifying .338, with nobody higher than .398.

This year's A's are also last in the majors with a .241 team batting average, and lead the AL with 1,183 strikeouts—paced by Cust, who has already eclipsed Rob Deer's AL-recrod 186 strikeouts from 1987. (Cust also has 31 home runs and leads the AL in walks, making him the Three True Outcomes threat in the A's lineup all year.) The Rangers rank second in the AL in strikeouts, but those have been packaged with a great deal of power, with a team slugging percentage almost 100 points higher than that of the A's. Milton Bradley went 3-for-3 last night against his former club to push his OPS back above 1000, and he now needs just seven more plate appearances to guarantee qualification for the league batting title and lock his name atop the AL leaderboards for both OBP (.435) and OPS.

Thanks to Jason Paré for database research.

Matchup: Yankees (86-71) at Blue Jays (83-74), 7:07 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Phil Hughes (26 IP, 8.31 RA, 2.04 WHIP, 17 K) vs. A.J. Burnett (213 1/3, 4.51 RA, 1.35 WHIP, 220 K)
Pythagorean Record: New York, 83-74 (753 RS, 703 RA); Toronto, 89-68 (690 RS, 599 RA)
Hit List Rankings: New York, #10; Toronto, #5
Prospectus: After the Red Sox beat Cleveland last night to clinch the wild card, the Yankees will take part in a game following their elimination from the playoff race for the first time since 1993. That season was also the last time that the Blue Jays finished ahead of New York in the AL East standings. Toronto entered this three-game set just two games behind the Bombers, but losing the opener last night means they will now need to win the next two of games as well as getting some help over the weekend if they're to have a shot at ending the year ahead of New York. The Blue Jays and Yankees have split their 16 games thus far, so the Jays also have a shot at closing the season with a winning mark versus the Bombers for the first time since 2000, when they were 7-5 against them. Helping Toronto towards that goal will be 20-year-old rookie outfielder Travis Snider, who is hitting .333/.381/.526 in 63 plate appearances since getting the call in late August, an impressive performance for the youngest player in the American League this year, and one who began the season in the High-A Florida State League.