Printer-friendly

September 23, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Tuesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Royals (71-86) at Tigers (71-84), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Zack Greinke (195 1/3 IP, 4.01 RA, 1.29 WHIP, 179 K) vs. Freddy Garcia (58 IP, 6.05 RA, 1.60 WHIP, 50 K—2007)
Pythagorean Record: Kansas City, 68-89 (664 RS, 768 RA); Detroit, 75-80 (791 RS, 814 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Kansas City, #24; Detroit, #17
Prospectus: The Tigers opened the season by losing seven straight games, and 10 of 12. They are now threatening to go out in similar fashion, with losses in the last four and 10 of their last 11. If the Royals beat Detroit again tonight, they will move percentage points ahead of the Tigers in the AL Central for the first time since May 23. Finishing in last place would be a particularly embarrassing fate for a Tigers team expected to contend for the division title, one that also sports the second-largest payroll in the American League ($138 million). The Tigers will rely upon their latest purchase to help keep them from slipping into the cellar, and Chief looked strong in his first outing, giving up only an unearned run and two hits in five innings while throwing his fastball in the upper 80s. While Garcia looks to build investor confidence for the off-season shopping period, Greinke will try to neatly wrap up an already-outstanding season. Greinke has already struck out more batters this year than any Royals pitcher has since Kevin Appier fanned 196 in 1997.

Royals outfielder David DeJesus picked up four hits in KC's 6-2 win last night, scoring twice while driving in one. Batting primarily in the leadoff spot (with 103 starts there in 133 games), DeJesus has nevertheless managed to drive in 73 runs, second most on the team, thanks to his average of .419 with runners in scoring position, the best in the majors this season. That average with RISP is also the second-best in Royals history, next to the .469 that George Brett put up in 1980, when he hit .390. Brett that season drove in 118 runs in 117 games, good for the best OBI% in the BP database, knocking in 26.9 percent of runners on base. DeJesus hasn't approached that mark, but his 21.4 percent leads all batting title qualifiers this season.

Matchup: Indians (79-77) at Red Sox (91-65), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Cliff Lee (216 1/3 IP, 2.62 RA, 1.09 WHIP, 162 K) vs. Tim Wakefield (170, 4.50 RA, 1.21 WHIP, 108 K)
Pythagorean Record: Cleveland, 82-74 (772 RS, 726 RA); Boston, 93-63 (815 RS, 657 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Cleveland, #14; Boston, #1
Prospectus: The Red Sox take another crack at clinching the AL wild-card berth tonight at Fenway, but it will be against the likely American League Cy Young winner. As Joe Sheehan mentioned in a recent post on Unfiltered, Lee has faced a relatively easy schedule this season in comparison with his main competitor for the hardware, Roy Halladay. That doesn't take anything away from his remarkable campaign, but it does mean that his first start against Boston this season could be his toughest assignment of the year, given that the Red Sox have hit left-handers better than any other team (846 OPS) and are also a particularly dangerous offense at Fenway Park (845 OPS). Lee is in search of his 23^rd win, which would be the most in the AL since Barry Zito won 23 in 1999 [Correction: 2002], and if he gets it will have the shot to become the first AL pitcher with 24 or more victories since Bob Welch won 27 for the A's in 1990. Going 1-0 or 2-0 in his final two turns would give Lee the best winning percentage in baseball history amongst pitchers with at least 200 innings or 20 decisions in a season, beating out the 55-5 season of Al Spalding from 1875; he simply needs to avoid losing to become the first pitcher to make more than 30 starts in a season and not fall more than twice.

Lee will have to deal with a couple of his competitors for the MVP award in the Red Sox lineup, including Dustin Pedroia, who hit his 52^nd double of the season over the weekend. With one more, Pedroia will move past the total that he shares with David Ortiz from last season, and into a tie with Tris Speaker for third place on Boston's single-season list. If he gets four more in the last six games, he could also tie Nomar Garciaparra's total of 56 from 2002, second in the team annals to only the greatest seasonal doubles total of all time, the 67 hit by Earl Webb in 1931. Jacoby Ellsbury is closing in on a team record, as well, and if he is able to get on base enough over the next several days could snag the five stolen bases he needs to tie Boston's single-season record, set at 54 by Tommy Harper in 1973.