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September 18, 2008

Prospectus Hit and Run

The Underachievers

by Jay Jaffe

It lacked the fanfare of a division-clinching victory, or the exuberance of Francisco Rodrigurez's record-setting 58^th save, but around the time that the Angels popped the champagne corks last week, they surpassed another record. Roughly two weeks since I pointed out their impending date with history, they inched past the 2004 Yankees' all-time mark of 12.7 wins above their third-order Pythagenpat projection—that is, their projected won-loss record after adjusting for run elements, park, league, and quality of competition. Since then, they've just kept going; through Wednesday, the Halos held a 92-59 record, the best in the major leagues despite their having outscored their opponents by just 63 runs. After adjusting for everything under the sun to get a truer bead on the quality of their offense, the Adjusted Standings show them as 14.2 games above their third-order projection of 77.8-73.2. While it's possible they could backslide a bit before the season ends, right now they have a solid claim as the most overachieving club of all time.

Here's the updated all-time top 10:

Rnk Year Team       W-L    Pct    R     RA  AEQR  AEQRA   D3    Won
 1  2008 Angels    92-59  .612   698   635   689   667   14.2   Division + ???
 2  2004 Yankees  101-61  .623   897   808   911   831   12.7   Division
 3  1970 Reds     102-60  .630   775   681   757   676   12.6   Pennant
 4  2007 D'backs   90-72  .556   712   732   708   739   12.2   Division
 5T 1954 Dodgers   92-62  .597   778   740   782   749   12.1
 5T 2005 ChiSox    99-63  .611   741   645   740   684   12.1   World Series
 7  1905 Tigers    79-74  .516   512   604   524   601   11.9
 8T 1924 Dodgers   92-62  .597   717   679   717   684   11.7
 8T 2002 Twins     94-67  .584   768   712   759   741   11.7   Division
10  1954 Indians  111-43  .721   746   504   717   511   11.4   Pennant

To put the Angels' performance this year into a bit more context, consider that the team with the second-best record in the majors, the Cubs (91-59, half a game behind the Halos), has a raw differential of 184 runs, just shy of three times the Angels' mark. Meanwhile, the team with the most similar third-order projection to the Angels is the Indians, with a projected record of 78.7-73.3. Despite outscoring opponents by 36 runs, their actual record stands at 75-77 at this writing. This bears repeating: the Angels have a record better than the Cubs, but considering their run differential and strength of schedule, they're closer to the Indians in terms of quality.

When I covered the Angels and their fellow overachievers in this space a few weeks ago, I promised to follow up with a look at history's great underachievers. There's no team chasing the pot of fool's gold at the other end of the projected record rainbow this year; the most underachieving team is just 7.3 games below their third-order projection, a total that wouldn't crack the bottom 100. More on the identity of that team in a moment; for now here is the list of historical underachievers:

Rnk Year Team        W-L     Pct    R     RA  AEQR  AEQRA    D3
 1  1993 Mets       59-103  .364   672   744   672   736   -15.1
 2  1935 Braves     38-115  .248   575   852   593   835   -14.6
 3  1986 Pirates    64-98   .395   663   700   666   697   -13.6
 4  1946 A's        49-105  .318   529   680   529   662   -12.8
 5  1905 Browns     54-99   .353   512   608   521   601   -12.7
 6  1937 Reds       56-98   .364   612   706   620   700   -12.4
 7  1939 Browns     43-111  .279   733  1035   752  1003   -12.2
 8  1962 Mets       40-120  .250   617   948   631   924   -12.1
 9  1917 Pirates    51-103  .331   464   595   468   579   -11.9
10T 1984 Pirates    75-87   .463   615   567   612   564   -11.8
10T 1975 Astros     64-97   .398   664   711   668   711   -11.8
12  2001 Rockies    73-89   .451   923   906   910   870   -11.5
13  1993 Padres     61-101  .377   679   772   681   764   -11.4
14T 1961 Phillies   47-107  .305   584   796   599   782   -11.1
14T 1924 Cardinals  65-89   .422   740   750   745   752   -11.1
16T 1967 Orioles    76-85   .472   654   592   657   602   -11.0
16T 1907 Reds       66-87   .431   526   519   527   522   -11.0
18  1936 Phillies   54-100  .351   726   874   739   869   -10.9
19  2006 Indians    78-84   .481   870   782   882   800   -10.7
20T 1912 Dodgers    58-95   .379   651   744   665   742   -10.4
20T 1952 Tigers     50-104  .325   557   738   563   716   -10.4

Topping this ignominious list is the 1993 Mets, a team best remembered for Bobby Bonilla's infamous threat to New York Daily News writer Bob Klapisch: "I'll show you the Bronx!" Klapisch had just co-authored a book about the 1992 Mets—a team that finished 72-90 despite having the majors' top payroll—called The Worst Team Money Could Buy, but the irony is that their successors were so much worse. The 1993 Mets were a 74-win team that somehow found a way to lose an extra 15 games, thus claiming primacy not only on this list, but also setting a record for marginal payroll dollars per marginal win according to a lengthy study by the late, great Doug Pappas. At $3.394 million per marginal win, a record that stood until the 1996 Tigers came along, they richly deserved their sobriquet.