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September 18, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Thursday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Mariners (57-94) at Royals (68-84), 1:10 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Ryan Feierabend (32 2/3 IP, 5.79 RA, 1.65 WHIP, 21 K) vs. Zack Greinke (188 1/3, 4.16 RA, 1.32 WHIP, 172 K)
Pythagorean Record: Seattle, 63-88 (621 RS, 750 RA); Kansas City, 65-87 (637 RS, 752 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Seattle, #28; Kansas City, #26
Prospectus: Ichiro went 3-for-3 in a losing effort last night, reaching 200 hits for the eighth consecutive season to tie the major league record set by Willie Keeler from 1894 to 1901. Fittingly, his 200^th hit was a grounder up the middle that he beat out for an infield single. Just three other players besides Ichiro and Keeler have notched at least eight seasons of 200 hits—Pete Rose holds the record with 10, Ty Cobb had nine, and Paul Waner also had eight. Back in July Ichiro was in some danger of not reaching the record, but a .349 average over his last 48 games has allowed him to clear the bar again with plenty of room to spare and get his average back to its customary place above .300. Ichiro has played in every game for the Mariners this season, and since he entered the league has missed just 16 games in eight years, playing in more contests during that period (1,269) than any other player. Ichiro also snagged another stolen base, his 43^rd of the year against four times caught, bumping his stolen-base percentage to an astounding 89.9 since the start of 2006.

Ichiro could not fully enjoy his big night, however, thanks in part to Ryan Shealy, who hit a solo homer to put Kansas City on the board in the fourth. The shot was the sixth that Shealy has hit in 39 at-bats since being called up from Triple-A Omaha, where he had 22 homers and an 879 OPS. Shealy has nearly doubled the home-run total of Kansas City first basemen in just 10 games; before the slugger's September call-up, Royals first basemen, led by Ross Gload, had just seven homers all season. Take out Shealy's production and the Royals have had just a .275/.320/.369 line out of first base in 572 plate appearances, but that poor production out of such a key offensive spot should disappear next year. The Royals not only have the righty-swinging Shealy, but also Kila Ka'aihue, a 24-year-old left-handed masher who launched 37 homers between Double- and Triple-A this season, and ranked fifth in all of the minors with a .628 slugging percentage.

Matchup: Brewers (84-68) at Cubs (91-59), 1:20 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Dave Bush (172 IP, 4.55 RA, 1.15 WHIP, 103 K) vs. Rich Harden (137, 2.23, 1.04, 170)
Pythagorean Record: Milwaukee, 82-70 (704 RS, 649 RA); Chicago, 93-57 (797 RS, 613 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Milwaukee, #7; Chicago, #2
Prospectus: After a 12-day layoff due to some arm troubles—what exactly they were was not made clear—Harden beat the Cardinals last Thursday with a six-inning, two-run performance. His fastball was down in velocity a bit averaging 90 mph, compared with 92 for the season, and 94 the last several years. He also struck out just three, his second-lowest total of the season. Still, he held the Cards at bay for a quality start, and given the quality of the Cubs' bullpen, six strong innings are probably all that Chicago needs out of Harden.

Dale Sveum has only been in charge for two games, but has already put his stamp on the Brewers, or at least on their batting order. Sveum quickly ended the brief tenures of Corey Hart and his .310 OBP in the leadoff spot and Ray Durham in the three hole, a configuration Ned Yost resorted to in both games of Sunday's doubleheader, which was his last experiment before the axe fell. Instead, Sveum has elected to hit Mike Cameron leadoff, a position he occupied just once earlier this season, while moving J.J. Hardy out of the two hole in place of Durham and bumping the slumping Ryan Braun back up to his usual position batting third. Putting Cameron atop the order is an interesting move, but the veteran center fielder's .333 OBP is lower than the major leagues' leadoff man average of .343. Getting on base is a team-wide problem for Milwaukee, with the best choice still seeming to be Durham and his .378 mark. Durham has seen much more playing time since returning from a strained shoulder earlier in the month, as the Brewers, finally fed up with Rickie Weeks' disappointing season, have elected to go to a straight platoon at second: Durham has started each of the last four games, all against right-handers, while Weeks played the two against lefties before that. Going to the timeshare is the correct call according to the numbers: Durham is at .309/.386/.463 this year versus righties, while Weeks is at .259/.392/.430 against southpaws, and both players have a sub-700 OPS versus the other hand.