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September 4, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Thursday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Pirates (59-79) at Reds (61-78), 12:35 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Tom Gorzelanny (99 1/3 IP, 6.70 RA, 1.77 WHIP, 60 K) vs. Josh Fogg (75 1/3, 7.65, 1.58, 44)
Pythagorean Record: Pittsburgh, 57-81 (624 RS, 759 RA); Cincinnati, 60-79 (593 RS, 692 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Pittsburgh, #29; Cincinnati, #26
Prospectus: The Pirates and Reds will give new meaning to the phrase "getaway day" this afternoon when they send Gorzelanny and Fogg to the hill in the series' final game, with Pittsburgh looking for a sweep. Fogg and Gorzelanny have both been lit up like no others this season—among National League pitchers with at least 75 innings, Fogg ranks last in ERA at 7.29, and Gorzelanny second to last at 6.61. Despite their struggles, though, this game will be a battle between the moveable object and the resistable force, for neither the Pittsburgh nor Cincinnati offense is potent after recent trades stripped both of their major salable parts. The Pirates at least have some reason for optimism regarding Gorzelanny; after being hit hard by Milwaukee in his first start after returning from a demotion to the minors he came back against the same Brewers last Friday and turned in a quality outing. Gorzelanny pitched very well down at Triple-A Indianapolis as well: in seven starts, he gave up 11 runs over 35 innings (2.83 RA), with a 0.91 WHIP and 33/4 K/BB ratio.

The 25-year-old lefty lasted just two-thirds of an inning in his last outing at the Great American Ball Park, the shortest start of his career, but that was back when the Reds still had both Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn, and when Gorzelanny was in the midst of his early-season struggles. Gorzelanny fell victim to Tom Verducci's Year After Effect, as his innings increased by 40 from his rookie season of 2006 to 2007, and his performance this season has suffered badly, likely at least in part both because of that innings jump and the way that he was pushed last September. If Gorzelanny can make his way back to the form he showed throughout most of the '07 campaign, he could team with fellow southpaw Paul Maholm, himself in a breakout campaign, to form an excellent young left-handed rotation tandem in Pittsburgh.

Matchup: Angels (84-54) at Tigers (67-72), 1:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Ervin Santana (184 2/3 IP, 3.46 RA, 1.12 WHIP, 183 K) vs. Kenny Rogers (167, 5.66, 1.59, 80)
Pythagorean Record: Los Angeles, 75-63 (639 RS, 582 RA); Detroit, 69-70 (704 RS, 709 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Los Angeles, #7; Detroit, #16
Prospectus: The Angels will be celebrating their second straight AL West title and fourth in the last five years sometime in the coming week, as the team's magic number for clinching the division is down to seven. Los Angeles is not without problems however, and the luxury of resting up for the playoffs in September has become a necessity for the Angels in the infield. The Angels are currently down their two starting middle infielders, who are both suffering hamstring woes: second baseman Howie Kendrick hit the DL last Thursday with the same strain that kept him off of the field for 42 games during the first two months of the year, and shortstop Erick Aybar is not with the team on its current six-game road trip because of soreness in his left hammy as well, instead remaining at home in Anaheim to receive treatment. Super-sub Maicer Izturis is already out for the season with a torn ligament in his left thumb, so the Angels have consequently been starting a pair of 23-year-old rookies up the middle: Brandon Wood at shortstop, and Sean Rodriguez at second base. Wood started out as a shortstop before being moved to third last year, and was moved back to short again this season. If he can stick at the more difficult defensive position, Wood could be a tremendous asset; the 23-year-old has tremendous power, hitting 31 homers this season at Triple-A Salt Lake to go along with a .595 slugging percentage, and he has mashed 122 long balls over the past four minor league seasons. Rodriguez hit even better than Wood this year for the Salt Lake Bees, putting up a 1042 OPS. Given that hamstring problems often linger, and that both Kendrick and Aybar clearly have difficulty with remaining in working order for any length of time, both Wood and Rodriguez could end up playing a larger role in LA's October quest than either they or the team originally thought.

Matchup: Nationals (54-86) at Braves (60-80), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Shairon Martis (116 1/3 IP, 4.02 RA, 1.38 WHIP, 99 K—Double- and Triple-A) vs. Jo-Jo Reyes (90 1/3, 5.86 RA, 1.63 WHIP, 73 K)
Pythagorean Record: Washington, 55-85 (544 RS, 693 RA); Atlanta, 67-73 (642 RS, 674 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Washington, #30; Atlanta, #21
Prospectus: Martis will make his major league debut tonight after being called up in Washington's September roster expansion. At 21 years old and with a March, 1987 birth date, Martis will become the second-youngest pitcher to appear in the majors this season (the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw was born in March of '88). Martis is just the 10^th major league player to hail from the Netherlands Antilles, and coming from Willemstad, on the island of Curacao, he's only the second pitcher (along with Braves rookie starter Jair Jurrjens). He is also the second player from Curacao to be called up by the Nats this September, following in the footsteps of outfielder Rogearvin Bernadina. Martis pitched for the Netherlands in the inaugural World Baseball Classic in 2006, and tossed a seven-inning no-hitter against Panama. He came to the Nationals near the trade deadline in 2006 from San Francisco in exchange for Mike Stanton.