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August 23, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Saturday's Games to Watch

by Marc Normandin

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Dodgers (65-63) at Phillies (69-59), 3:55 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Clayton Kershaw (72 2/3 IP, 3.59 RA, 1.51 WHIP, 64 K) vs. Cole Hamels (181 2/3, 3.67, 1.06, 157)
Pythagorean Record: Los Angeles, 67-61 (537 RS, 513 RA); Philadelphia, 72-56 (615 RS, 538 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Los Angeles, #14; Philadelphia, #12
Prospectus: The Phillies are just 2½ games behind the Mets in the National League East, and it's their recent sputtering that has put them there. They've gone 5-5 while the Mets have rattled off four wins in a row to go 9-1, opening up some space between the two clubs. The two shared the same 52-44 record at the break, and while the two are still close, the Mets have outplayed them in the second half with a +29 run differential. Since the All-Star break the Phillies' run differential has been -1 (134-135) during a stretch that saw them go 17-15.

Pitching has not been the Phillies' strong suit, but it has performed well lately, giving up a line of just .258/.341/.390 since the break. Even more impressive is that the bullpen hasn't had to shoulder the load by themselves, with the rotation holding opponents to a .245/.319/.379 showing. The problem has been with the offense: the 4.2 runs per game the Phillies have scored since the break is far below what they did in the first half, when they averaged five runs per contest, and even with the solid performance by the pitching staff, it's going to be tough to win when your lineup pumps out an inadequate .239/.313/.414 line. Point your finger at Jimmy Rollins (.223/.287/.369) and Ryan Howard (.215/.294/.388) if you're looking for someone to blame, as the two sluggers have been awfully quiet at the plate for the past month.

Matchup: Padres (48-80) at Giants (56-72), 1:05 p.m. PT
Probable Starters: Dirk Hayhurst (84 IP, 3.86 RA, 1.32 WHIP, 98 K—Triple-A) vs. Barry Zito (134 1/3, 6.03, 1.70, 86)
Pythagorean Record: Padres, 52-76 (487 RS, 603 RA); San Francisco, 53-75 (490 RS, 593 RA)
Hit List Rankings: San Diego, #28; San Francisco, #24
Prospectus: Hayhurst makes his major league debut today, and though he has been almost exclusively a reliever during his past few seasons in the minors, he's slotting in as a starter. Hayhurst was an eighth-round pick by San Diego in the 2003 amateur entry draft out of Kent State University. He spent four full years in college, which in part contributed to his being old for every level he's been assigned to, starting in Low-A ball at the age of 22, and making it to Triple-A Portland for the first time during his age-25 campaign in 2006. Hayhurst did not make it onto Kevin Goldstein's Top 11 Prospects list for the Padres coming into the season, but he's had a breakout year of sorts as a reliever at Portland, striking out 10.5 hitters per nine while walking 2.6, a quality follow-up to his impressive Double-A figures from 2007 (8.3 K/9, 1.4 BB/9). Hayhurst has made just a pair of starts for the Beavers this year, striking out 14 and walking a pair over ten innings while giving up one run; the Padres hope for the same kind of success against a Giants lineup that ranks 15^th in the NL in EqA.

Matchup: Yankees (68-60) at Orioles (61-66), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Carl Pavano (14 IP, 3.86 RA, 1.36 WHIP, 13 K—Double-A) vs. Jeremy Guthrie (177, 3.41, 1.16, 110)
Pythagorean Record: New York, 68-60 (619 RS, 575 RA); Baltimore, 63-64 (654 RS, 656 RA)
Hit List Rankings: New York, #8; Baltimore, #17
Prospectus: Pavano has not pitched in the majors since April 9 of 2007, when his season ended early after just 11 1/3 innings. The last time he pitched regularly in the majors was all the way back in 2005, his first season with the Yankees. Even in that year he wasn't available all the time, as he tossed just 100 innings over 17 starts, and then threw just 28 2/3 innings in the minors the next year without making it to the majors at all. The only season of his career where Pavano was both productive and available to pitch was 2004, the year that netted him his four-year, $39.95 million contract with the Bombers. It's just a hunch, but regardless of how Pavano throws today and for the rest of the year—knowing Pavano, those two statements could be one and the same—chances are good that the Yanks won't be picking up his $13 million option for 2009, though they do have to pay him nearly $2 million for a buyout.