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August 19, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Tuesday's Games to Watch

by Marc Normandin

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Braves (56-69) at Mets (68-57), 7:10 p.m. ED
Probable Starters: Jo-Jo Reyes (82 2/3 IP, 5.66 RA, 1.57 WHIP, 64 K) vs. Oliver Perez (142 2/3, 4.35, 1.35, 131)
Pythagorean Record: Atlanta, 63-62 (566 RS, 566 RA); New York, 68-57 (610 RS, 551 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Atlanta, #16; New York, #7
Prospectus: Things were not looking good for the Mets as they entered the second half of the season; on July 1 they were 41-42, 3½ games back of first place, and with a run differential that suited their record. Things would start to change for the club on the fifth of the month, in the second game of a four-game set against the then first-place Phillies. The Mets would win the last three games of that series, and go on to win another seven in a row to vault themselves back into contention. They're just 1½ games up on those same Phillies, but their play has improved dramatically over the course of the past six weeks. They've gone 21-15 since the beginning of July, with 224 runs scored against 161 allowed, jumping their run differential from a disappointing -4 to a solid +59. Improvements to the rotation since the axing of the former coaching staff have done wonders to keep this New York club in the race, as Pedro Martinez has managed to put together a few solid outings—though with far too many homers, despite the improvements elsewhere—while tonight's starter, Perez, has dropped his ERA in six of his previous eight starts, down from 4.98 (with a peak of 5.29 during this stretch) to his current 3.91 mark. Whether this resurgence is due to the influence of the new pitching coach, or to the talent inherent in the rotation, the Mets and their fans will take what they can get after a depressing start to the year following last September's disaster. If they can't maintain their turnaround and secure the divisional crown, they'll have to contend with Milwaukee and St. Louis for the wild card, and whether they have the horses to keep up with the Brat Pack (now with more bratwurst, and less Emilio Estevez) has been questionable ever since the Brewers added CC Sabathia to the fold.

Matchup: Tigers (61-64) at Rangers (62-64), 7:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Armando Galarraga (133 1/3 IP, 3.71 RA, 1.15 WHIP, 92 K) vs. Vicente Padilla (137 1/3, 5.44, 1.48, 93)
Pythagorean Record: Detroit, 63-62 (632 RS, 622 RA); Texas, 58-68 (702 RS, 765 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Detroit, #15; Texas, #22
Prospectus: Detroit's rotation has been full of disappointments this year, with Jeremy Bonderman's awful showing finishing with a season-ending DL visit, Justin Verlander's inability to pitch well with any consistency, Kenny Rogers showing his age, and Nate Robertson's perpetual problem of being the luckless Nate Robertson. It's easy to see why Detroit has failed to keep up in the AL Central race—especially when their rotation isn't even the weakest aspect of this one-dimensional team—but at least they've had Armando Galarraga to cheer them up every fifth day. He has been their most productive pitcher via SNLVAR, coming in nearly a win ahead of their second-best starter, Justin Verlander. He'll take on his former organization—another pitching-starved one, at that—in tonight's contest.

Galarraga is an average pitcher where his ground-ball/fly-ball distribution is concerned, and his success has been based on a solid strikeout rate mixed with decent walk totals and just one homer per nine on the year. His ERA is a bit ahead of where it should be given his average across-the-board peripherals, and his 4.26 FIP confirms this, at over a full run ahead of his current 3.11 ERA. That ERA is a product of his .249 BABIP, a well-below average figure that has allowed Galarraga to give up a meager opponent line of .217/.285/.372. This showing is a surprise, as the Tigers .701 Defensive Efficiency is run of the mill. Given all of this, it would not be a surprise for Galarraga to regress during the last month and a half of 2008, and it can be expected for 2009. Not that the aging Tigers need more to worry about in their future, but Galarraga's not being able to hold opponents to his current Johan Santana-esque opponent line in the future.

Matchup: Padres (48-76) at Diamondbacks (64-60), 6:40 p.m. MST
Probable Starters: Josh Banks (78 1/3 IP, 4.60 RA, 1.39 WHIP, 39 K) vs. Doug Davis (99 2/3, 5.24, 1.54, 82)
Pythagorean Record: San Diego, 51-73 (474 RS, 579 RA); Arizona, 66-58 (572 RS, 536 RA)
Hit List Rankings: San Diego, #29; Arizona, #13
Prospectus: Immediately following the All-Star break, I wrote a piece for the New York Sun detailing how the Diamondbacks were on pace to become the first team to finish the season in first place in their division with a record under .500. Technically, the 1994 Rangers are the only club to ever do so, but without a divisional crown on their head, they don't truly fit the bill. Since that time, the D'backs have gone out and made a few trades to improve their team, most notably their addition of Adam Dunn's bat to an offense-starved lineup. Yes, they've lost Orlando Hudson to injury, which doesn't do Brandon Webb any favors, but this is a team that has played better since the second half began. Since the break, the D'backs have improved their run differential from +3 to +36, thanks to a stretch where they went 17-11 and outscored opponents 145 to 112. Sadly for the D'backs, their closest rival for the divisional crown in Los Angeles did some summer shopping of their own, and came away with a few new bats to distance themselves from their sub-.500 past as well. Despite their improved play and upgrades to the team, the Snakes are further from securing the divisional title than they were when they were semi-pathetic to watch. The Dodgers and D'backs are now tied for first place with identical records, so the season begins again today for these two new-look late bloomers.