Printer-friendly

August 15, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Friday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Blue Jays (62-60) at Red Sox (71-51), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Roy Halladay (182 IP, 3.16 RA, 1.05 WHIP, 155 K) vs. Paul Byrd (131, 4.81, 1.30, 56)
Pythagorean Record: Toronto, 65-57 (518 RS, 482 RA); Boston, 73-49 (632 RS, 504 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Toronto, #10; Boston, #1
Prospectus: The Indians decided to capitalize on their post-season neutrality by selling arms to a principal militant in the (AL) East, and now Boston will show off its new firepower tonight against one of the biggest guns in the American League. Cleveland's trade of Byrd to Boston was not really a trade, but a cash transaction, as the Boston Globe reported that the Tribe will receive nothing beyond the financial relief of not having to pay the remaining $2 million on the right-hander's 2008 contract. Byrd steps into the Red Sox rotation tonight to take the turn of Clay Buchholz; due to Charlie Zink's rough outing three nights ago, Red Sox management is just pushing Buchholz back a few days rather than bumping him from a starting role. Now 37 years old, Byrd was doing his usual league-average thing in Cleveland, and has a great matchup tonight for his attempt to make an excellent first impression upon Red Sox nation. Byrd gave up just two runs in a complete-game victory over Toronto last Saturday, his first complete game in nearly two years, and in seven career starts versus the Blue Jays he has posted a 3.22 RA and 0.89 WHIP in 50 1/3 innings, with just two walks against 25 strikeouts.

The Red Sox recalled Jed Lowrie from Triple-A Pawtucket when Julio Lugo went on the DL on July 12, and Lowrie has proven to be more than an adequate fill-in for the struggling veteran. Starting at shortstop, and last night at third base in the absence of Mike Lowell, Lowrie has hit .310/.381/.464 in this latest stint (he'd been up from late-April to early May originally). Lowrie has helped the team even more than his raw stats show due to a fortunate stacking of his hits in key situations—the rookie knocked a two-run double in three straight games from Monday through Wednesday while adding a one-run two-bagger last night, and for the season is hitting .317 and slugging .561 in 48 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, including five hits in 10 bases loaded at-bats. Contrastingly, Lugo had just a 429 OPS in 104 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, and Lowrie already has seven more RBI in 146 plate appearances than Lugo had in 307. Since the All-Star break, Lowrie has knocked in 22 runs, more than any other major league shortstop.

Matchup: Diamondbacks (62-59) at Astros (62-59), 7:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Brandon Webb (169 IP, 3.36 RA, 1.13 WHIP, 139 K) vs. Wandy Rodriguez (104, 4.67, 1.33, 91)
Pythagorean Record: Arizona, 63-58 (549 RS, 526 RA); Houston, 58-63 (555 RS, 576 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Arizona, #11; Houston, #23
Prospectus: Webb goes for his 18^th victory tonight in Houston, which would tie his career high set last season. He already stands alone amongst major league pitchers at 17, although Cliff Lee can reach that mark today with a win over the Angels. The game's ultimate ground-ball pitcher, Webb is currently lapping the field in terms of G/F ratio, as his 3.57 mark is well ahead of the 2.59 of Derek Lowe, who ranks second among qualifiers. Webb's sinking stuff should come in especially handy now, given the state of the Diamondbacks' outfield defense. Chris Young in center field is currently flanked by a converted first baseman in left (Conor Jackson) and a converted left fielder in right—the newly acquired Dunn, who is seeing his first action in right field since 2003. Dunn did make an error in last night's ballgame, but the situation is not as dire as it may seem. His move is a creative short-term solution to the absence of Justin Upton, allowing the run-starved Snakes to stuff as many bats as possible into the lineup, and as discussed recently, Jackson has actually been strong with the glove at his new position. Manager Bob Melvin recently said that Jackson "has been real comfortable out there," and that he would "like to keep him out there." If that is indeed so, then Adam Dunn will likely be donning a first baseman's glove upon Upton's return sometime next week.

Both Arizona and the Dodgers won yesterday and remain tied atop the NL West. Next up for the D'backs is a hot Houston club which has won eight games in a row to climb three above the .500 mark, scoring 7.5 runs a game over that stretch. In the absence of Carlos Lee, whose career year was cut short by a broken pinky last week, Lance Berkman's new running mate is Ty Wigginton, who is also enjoying the best season of his major league tenure. Wigginton has started in left field each of the past five games, and is doing a passable impression of the Panamanian slugger on the season, batting .288/.367/.502 with 13 homers in 305 plate appearances. Minute Maid Park is a stronger venue for right-handed hitters than lefties, and Wiggy has indeed feasted at home, slugging .575 with a 946 OPS in Houston (compared with .436 and 799 on the road).