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August 2, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Saturday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: White Sox (61-47) at Royals (50-60), 2:55 p.m. CT, FOX
Probable Starters: Mark Buehrle (144 IP, 4.38 RA, 1.29 WHIP, 83 K) vs. Kyle Davies (58, 4.66, 1.60, 30)
Pythagorean Record: Chicago, 62-46 (543 RS, 465 RA); Kansas City, 47-63 (456 RS, 532 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Chicago, #4; Kansas City, #23
Prospectus: Ken Griffey Jr., one of three future Hall of Famers to be traded at this year's deadline, made his White Sox debut in center field last night, going 2-for-3 with two RBI in Chicago's 4-2 win. In terms of offensive production, as Christina Kahrl discussed, trading for Griffey was a good move for the south siders. Griffey's presence will serve to bring some balance to the White Sox lineup, for Chicago has received fewer plate appearances from left-handed batters this season (28.1 percent of their total through Thursday) than any other American League team. (Detroit, one of the teams chasing the White Sox, is also overly right-handed at 28.7 percent.) Griffey's bat had perked up lately; he hit .271/.386/.541 in 101 plate appearances in July, a significant improvement over Paul Konerko (who he'll likely be replacing in the lineup most days) who hit .209/.274/.284 in 67 PA for the month after his return from the disabled list. Griffey currently stands at 608 home runs, and with two more will pass North Side legend Sammy Sosa and move into fifth place all time. Between Griffey and Jim Thome, the White Sox now have two of the six greatest left-handed home-run hitters of all time in their regular lineup.

Of course, the biggest issue regarding the newly-pinstriped Griffey is his defense, for the White Sox plan to employ a 38-year-old in center field, where he hasn't played since 2006, and where he has not even been average (by Range Factor) since 2000. General Manager Kenny Williams isn't concerned about Griffey's play at the position, and he stated on Thursday that "Center field is actually the easiest of the outfield positions to play from a health perspective...we feel he's going to give us at least what we were getting out there. Remember, we didn't have the prototypical guy out there in the first place." Williams' assertion is backed up by the numbers: the White Sox got a collective 2.20 Range Factor from their center fielders (Nick Swisher, Bryan Anderson, DeWayne Wise, and Alexei Ramirez) before Griffey's arrival, the lowest of any team in the majors at the position. The bar Griffey will attempt to clear has been set pretty low then, although that alone does not justify the move.

Matchup: Athletics (53-55) at Red Sox (62-48), 7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Dana Eveland (123 IP, 3.95 RA, 1.46 WHIP, 83 K) vs. Jon Lester (139 1/3, 3.36, 1.32, 96)
Pythagorean Record: Oakland, 59-49 (450 RS, 410 RA); Boston, 63-47 (540 RS, 457 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Oakland, #12; Boston, #2
Prospectus: Red Sox fans got their first look at Jason Bay manning the monster last night, and greeted the team's new left fielder with a lengthy standing ovation before his first at-bat, in which he walked and later scored. It turned out to be a memorable debut for the former Pirates star, who ended up recording Boston's second (and winning) run as well: Bay hit a wall-ball triple with two outs and none on in the bottom of the 12^th inning, then came in to score on Jed Lowrie's infield single. The Oakland loss soured what was another excellent performance by sidearming right-hander Brad Ziegler, who turned in two more scoreless innings to up his major league-record streak of shutout frames to open a career to 32. (The previous record was 25 innings, held by George McQuillan of the Phillies in 1907.) Ziegler also holds the record since 1956 for consecutive scoreless appearances to start a career with 25, surpassing the 22 clean outings in a row that situational left-hander Matt Smith posted for the Yankees and Phillies in 2006.

The A's carried over into August the offensive futility they displayed in July, which explains why Ziegler's shutdown showings haven't led to many Oakland wins. In their 25 games last month, the Athletics hit .235/.302/.346 and averaged 3.4 runs per game, leading to an 8-17 record. It wasn't that the hitters suffered a depression which bled into their bats following Beane's unloading of Rich Harden and Joe Blanton while Oakland was still close to the Angels in the AL West. The fade has been an accurate valuation of the team's true talent level—it is really the offense, and not the pitching, that has led to the A's recent swoon. Oakland was getting lucky early in the season: it managed to score 4.4 per game from April through June despite a 703 team OPS. Oakland did get Frank Thomas back yesterday following more than a two-month absence due to a quad injury, which should certainly help out. Thomas was the Athletics' best offensive force in the 108 plate appearances before he went down, and will add some badly-needed power, for Oakland ranks last in the American League in slugging, being led by the .437 mark of Jack Cust.