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July 25, 2008

Fantasy Focus

The Unpredictability of Pitching

by Dalton Del Don

After 100 games in the 2008 season, the top three ERA leaders are Justin Duchscherer, Cliff Lee, and Edinson Volquez. There have certainly been surprises with hitters as well, but not to this extent. The day that baseball becomes predictable will also be the time it becomes boring, but 2008 has brought an especially erratic season for starting pitchers.

There are numerous aspects of this that are important to examine, if for the sole reason of discovering whether waiting to draft starting pitchers is prudent in fantasy baseball, something that’s no doubt paid off handsomely so far this year. One obvious reason is the unnatural act of throwing a baseball, which leaves pitchers far more susceptible to injury than a hitter is, making it a position that’s inherently riskier to rely on when building your team. That still leaves the main issue unanswered, though: How can so many unheralded and often undrafted hurlers be so instructive to winning fantasy baseball in 2008?

The Big Three

Justin Duchscherer: Entering 2008, Duchscherer hadn’t started a game since 2003, and yet he’s been baseball’s most consistent starter this season. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in all but one start, and he gave up just three in the other. He’s used McAfee Coliseum’s spacious foul territory to his advantage (1.36 ERA, 0.71 WHIP), but Duchscherer’s ability to keep hitters off balance has produced solid results regardless of venue. Still, this is one example of a small sample size resulting in a mirage. Duchscherer’s .215 BABIP is the lowest mark in all of baseball. His .82 strand rate is the highest mark in all of baseball. His 5.5 K/9 is below league average, while his 2.7 strikeouts for every walk ratio ranks 28^th. Just 5.8 percent of his fly balls have turned into home runs, which is the second lowest in the league. In other words, no pitcher in baseball has been luckier in 2008. Add in the fact that he’s already passed his career high in innings by 19 1/3, and has nearly doubled his total from the past two seasons combined, and Duchscherer is a candidate to both wear down and regress badly. It’s unlikely he’s still among the ERA leaders come season’s end.

Cliff Lee: After posting a 6.29 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 2007, Lee followed that up with a 5.68 ERA during six starts in spring training this year, gaining a spot the last rotation slot with the Tribe mainly for lack of alternatives. Fast forward to July 24, and he leads the American League with a 2.29 ERA. There’s unpredictable, and then there’s Lee’s 2008 campaign. Of course, he was a former fourth-round pick who was solid in 2005, so some skills were clearly hidden beneath the surface. His first six starts this season were historically good (0.67 ERA, 44:2 K:BB ratio), but the question remained: Is he for real? With a major league-leading ratio of 5.5 strikeouts for every walk, the answer is yes. Only 4.2 percent of Lee’s fly balls have left the park, which is the lowest rate in baseball. But that just raises the question: Can someone with a 2.29 ERA not have some luck involved? Unless he’s striking out 15 batters per nine innings, probably not, and in Lee’s case, his .301 BABIP is hardly lucky. Moreover, because of his newly-discovered pinpoint control (1.4 BB/9), even when more of those fly balls leave the yard, many will be solo shots, and Lee has done a solidly average job of keeping the ball on the ground anyway (1.1 G/F). Some luck has no doubt contributed to Lee’s breakout 2008, but he’s also developed a skill set that suggests he’s now an elite hurler. He’s here to stay.