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July 25, 2008

Under The Knife

Not a Wrap

by Will Carroll

Normally on Friday we do the UTK Wrap, a review of the week's injuries that's published both here at BP.com and at SI.com, but with this week's Free Preview there's no real need for a review. Everything's been out in the open, letting subscribers and non-subscribers take a look at what we do all year long here at BP.com. So for a little bit of a change, we'll do a 'normal' UTK here, and take a look around the league at the injuries that are affecting your favorite teams, as well as your fantasy rosters. I'll toss Injury Cost in today, the Wrap's extra statistic, since the more I work with it, the more I feel like it's the most accurate description of value lost. I'd love to have a measure that worked in runs or wins rather than dollars, but while we have a system that works in retrospect, no one has yet developed one that works contemporaneously. On to the injuries:

Jorge Posada (30 DXL/$2.6 million)
Hideki Matsui (30 DXL/$1.5 million)<
Posada has decided to delay surgery, hoping that a strengthening program will hold his shoulder together long enough for him to be able to come back and help the Yankees make a late-season charge. That's the plan for now, with Posada on the DL until at least August 5, though it's more likely that he'll be out until mid-month; if the Yankees hold on without him, that's when their real decision point on which way to go will be. The delay does call into question whether or not Posada will be able to make it back by the start of next season, and especially his ability to come back as a catcher. It's tough to gauge how quickly he'll recover from this, given the lack of comparable injuries and his relative defensive deficiencies; it's his bat, not his glove, that holds the value. The Yankees are also watching Matsui closely to see if he'll contribute anything more this season. His knee has been drained again, for the final time. If it still swells with activity, the rusty iron man will need surgery to correct the problem, effectively ending his season. He'll begin hitting next week, but no one seems optimistic that he can stay healthy. With both players, the Yankees are just hoping that they can contribute something, anything, without depending on them for any major impact.

Tim Hudson (0 DXL/0)
Chipper Jones (7 DXL/$0.7 million)
The Braves' decision on whether they'll be buyers or sellers—and I still think they'll end up standing pat—may hinge on whether Hudson and Jones have more than just dings. Jones is already well-known for his leg problems and his quick, effective comebacks, but even Chipper is going to have issues with strains on opposing sides of his leg. With both a recurrent quad strain and an acute hamstring strain, Jones has no way to protect the muscle, which puts his kinematics into deep deficit. Even Jones himself sounded a bit negative. He got the offday on Thursday and will be re-evaluated, but I would expect him to be affected, if not rested, at least through the weekend. I'll rate his chances of hitting the DL as a coin flip now, and split the difference on his DXL. Things don't look as serious for Tim Hudson. While it's never good to have the team's ace come out of a game with elbow soreness, Hudson and the medical staff think it's a muscular issue and that he won't miss a start. Given their lack of acceptable options for a sixth starter, the Braves have to hope that Hudson can answer the call early next week.

Kerry Wood (17 DXL/$0.2 million)
Did you know that a retroactive move can only be backdated ten days? I didn't, not until the rule was quoted to me in regards to Wood. Good to know, I guess. Wood tried to get back out on the mound, but hasn't healed enough yet to get there. So, the Cubs pushed him to the DL and will continue to use Carlos Marmol as the closer in the meantime. The interesting thing here is that Lou Piniella doesn't seem to grasp that moving Marmol, rather than leaving him in the late-inning set-up role, doesn't necessarily mean that he won't still have the kinds of problems that he's had. I don't understand why smart guys like Piniella don't get this. Wood's blister remains just an annoyance rather than a real problem, and he should be back as soon as the rules allow, which is now next Tuesday.

Chris Carpenter (120 DXL/$4.4 million)
As much as I like Injury Cost, here's the type of situation where it fails. Everyone knew Carpenter to be injured coming into the season, and PECOTA "saw" that as well, cutting his expectation for playing time and starts down to the point where his projection and his calculated value fall well below his actual economic cost to the team. It's the one failing of the system that I see right now, but without a heavy-duty mathematical correction, this 'quick and dirty' system isn't terrible here, it's just not as accurate as it feels on most injuries. Carpenter is making good progress, and while his results on the mound during his first rehab start weren't ideal—he had typical post-TJ wildness—his elbow came through it just fine. There's a small chance that Carpenter could make only one more rehab start, scheduled for Friday in Double-A Springfield. It's much more likely that he gets at least one or two more starts, but the Cardinals are a bit desperate for anything resembling pitching, especially after being swept this by Milwaukee.