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July 7, 2008

Future Shock

Monday Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

Trevor Cahill, RHP, Double-A Midland (Athletics)
In Friday’s piece on Michel Inoa, I noted that Inoa would likely rank as Oakland’s top prospect by the end of the year. Now I doubt that Cahill reads BP, but maybe he does—if he didn’t sign with Oakland, he was going to play his college ball at Dartmouth. Either way, Cahill stated his case for the top slot with yet another outstanding outing over the weekend, striking out 10 over eight shutout innings while allowing only two hits in just his third Texas League start. His fastball was touching 94 mph on Friday, his curveball remains a more than plus offering, and his ascension to the big leagues continues well ahead of schedule. Perhaps the decisions this offseason on the Oakland rankings will be tougher than I thought.

Travis D’Arnaud, C, Short-Season Williamsport (Phillies)
D’Arnaud is another one of those players who was easy to forget about during the first half of the season. A supplemental first-round pick last June, D’Arnaud ranked as the sixth-best prospect in the Philadelphia system going into the year, but was held back until the short-season leagues began, where the 19-year-old took over everyday catching duties in the New York-Penn League. With two-hit games in each of his three weekend contests, D’Arnaud is more than holding his own in a league primarily stocked with players with some college experience, and is batting a brisk .375/.419/.516 in 18 games, showing average-to-plus raw power and solid defensive skills. Catching prospects who project as everyday players are a rare commodity, but with Lou Marson’s offensive explosion at Double-A this year, there’s no reason to rush D’Arnaud.

Dexter Fowler, CF, Double-A Tulsa (Rockies)
Fowler had already been having a breakout season at Double-A, but now the breakout is turning into a monster season, because after a 7-for-12 weekend, Fowler has had seven straight multi-hit games, and is batting .438 in his last 25 (.330/.407/.518 overall). Fowler’s power potential remains the subject of debate, but nobody was arguing about it on Sunday while he walloped his eighth and ninth home runs of the year. Unlike many toolsy players, Fowler has a patient approach, although he is prone to strikeouts and needs to improve his base-stealing prowess. Other than one good year by Preston Wilson in 2003, the Rockies have never had a dynamic power/speed combo player in center field, but it appears that Fowler will likely hold the position a good bit longer than Wilson did.

Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Triple-A Sacramento (Athletics)
Quick quiz: What’s Gio Gonalez’ ERA? Before you guess, let me remind you that Gonzalez began the year by allowing only one earned run in each of his first three outings. Just three starts ago, he delivered eight innings of one-hit shutout baseball while striking out 12. Friday night? Even better, with nine innings of one-hit ball and 13 strikeouts, while sitting at 92-93 mph, touching 95, showing a vicious curve, and looking like one of the better lefty prospects in the game. So how is it possible that his ERA is 4.84? That just doesn’t seem right, but there it is, a result of his being lit up around once every three starts. Take May 23^rd, when Tucson scored ten runs against him before he escaped the fourth inning. Or just two weeks ago, when Salt Lake scored six times before Gonzalez was pulled in the third. No one seems to have a good explanation for this inconsistency. When he’s on, he’s really on, but when you add it all up, there’s a lot of "really off" there as well.

Aaron Hicks, OF, Rookie-Level GCL (Twins)
When Minnesota made Hicks the 14^th pick in the draft this June, we knew what they were getting into. Hicks was without question one of the best combinations of athleticism and toolsiness available in the draft, but his baseball skills were a bit raw, though it seems that no one has told Hicks that. In an extra-inning marathon on Friday he went 4-for-7 with a double and his first professional home run, and followed that up with a three-hit effort on Saturday. Even with an 0-for-4 collar on Sunday, Hicks is hitting a healthy .327/.407/.462 in his first 12 games as a pro, with a surprising seven walks in 52 at-bats. Every one of Hicks' raw tools are above average, and they’re showing themselves on the baseball field sooner than most expected.