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July 4, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Friday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Red Sox (51-37) at Yankees (45-41), 1:05 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Josh Beckett (101 IP, 3.74 RA, 1.19 WHIP, 101 K) vs. Darrell Rasner (57, 4.58, 1.40, 38)
Pythagorean Record: Boston, 52-36 (442 RS, 366 RA); New York, 45-41 (406 RS, 383 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Boston, #1; New York, #7
Prospectus: Not only is today the anniversary of our nation's declaration of independence from Great Britain, but also of perhaps the most famous words spoken in the history of baseball. Forty-nine years ago, on July 4, 1939, Lou Gehrig--forced to retire that season by the disease that would later take his life and eventually bear his name--stood before the Yankee Stadium crowd on the day his number 4 jersey was retired and said, "today I consider myself the luckiest man on the face of the earth." Here are some other highlights of Independence Day in Yankees history (taken from NationalPastime.com):

• 1925: Two future Hall of Famers, Yankees lefty Herb Pennock and Athletics ace Lefty Grove, match zeros for 14 innings at Yankee Stadium before the Yankees score off of Grove in the bottom of the 15^th to win 1-0.
• 1932: Senators outfielder Carl Reynolds collides with Bombers catcher Bill Dickey at the plate, prompting Dickey to punch Reynolds in the face, breaking his jaw. Dickey is suspended for 30 days.
• 1983: Dave Righetti throws a no-hitter against Boston at the Stadium in a 4-0 Yankees victory.
• 1984: Phil Niekro, pitching for the Yankees, strikes out Larry Parrish of the Rangers to become the ninth major leaguer to fan 3,000 batters.

The milestones for the Bombers on the Fourth of July haven't always been positive, however. Back in 2003, the Red Sox hit seven homers in a 10-3 win in New York, the most long balls ever allowed by the Yankees in one game. Jason Varitek, Bill Mueller, and David Ortiz hit two apiece, and Manny Ramirez added the seventh. (The Red Sox have enjoyed batting on the Fourth--in 1977, they set a then-major league record with eight homers in a home win over Toronto.) Three years after that '03 blowout, the Yankees suffered a further embarrassment on Independence Day when they lost 19-1 to the Indians in Cleveland.

If something seems strange about this series between the long-time rivals, it's that neither team is in first place. The last time New York and Boston clashed without one or the other being atop the East was in September of 1997, when the Orioles were wrapping up their first division title since 1983 (and their last winning season).

Matchup: Dodgers (41-44) at Giants (38-48), 1:05 p.m. PT
Probable Starters: Derek Lowe (111 1/3 IP, 4.45 RA, 1.27 WHIP, 82 K) vs. Jonathan Sanchez (102, 3.88, 1.34, 102) Pythagorean Record: Los Angeles, 43-42 (348 RS, 341 RA); San Francisco, 39-47 (352 RS, 391 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Los Angeles, #19; San Francisco, #23
Prospectus: Tonight's opener of the great imported New York City rivalry will also mark the return of two veteran former All-Stars for Los Angeles, as both Andruw Jones and Nomar Garciaparra join the club following protracted absences. Before he went down in late May, Jones was putting up a .192 EqA, the worst mark by any center fielder in baseball. Garciaparra was not much better, at .235. That number, however, would still represent a significant improvement upon the performances of the three players who have filled in for injured shortstop Rafael Furcal: Luis Maza (.202), Angel Berroa (.146), and Chin-Lung Hu (.130). Garciaparra can likely still outhit that trio even as the darkness settles in on his storied career, but can he still play shortstop well enough to justify the switch? That is what the Dodgers apparently intend to find out. The last time Garciapparra played shortstop was in 2005 with the Cubs, when he made six errors in 26 games and had a 4.02 Range Factor (compared to the 4.51 league average that year). According to FRAA, the last year Garciaparra was above-average was 2002, and from 2004-05 he racked up a combined -18.5 SFR at the position for the Red Sox and Cubs. Garciaparra would also seem to be a poor bet to stay healthy while playing the more physically taxing middle infield position, for one of the primary reasons he was moved to third base (and then later first) was to keep his fragile fading star on the field.