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June 24, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Tuesday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Rays (44-31) at Marlins (40-35), 7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Andy Sonnanstine (89 2/3 IP, 5.42 RA, 1.42 WHIP, 58 K) vs. Scott Olsen (92 1/3, 4.39, 1.30, 50)
Pythagorean Record: Tampa Bay, 41-34 (338 RS, 307 RA); Florida, 38-37 (368 RS, 366 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Tampa Bay, #4; Florida, #15
Prospectus: The Marlins lead the majors with 112 home runs, and should get a power boost tonight when left fielder Josh Willingham returns to the fold following a nearly two-month absence brought on by a back injury. Willingham was living up to his nickname before he went down, with six homers and a .637 slugging percentage in 91 at-bats; all other Marlins left fielders this season have combined for four homers and slugged .441 in 188 at-bats. Five Marlins are currently on pace to hit more than 20 homers this year, and if Willingham can also get there--not an unreasonable assumption given his good start and 47 combined long balls between 2006-07--Florida would become just the second National League team in history to boast six players with at least 20 home runs, joining the 1965 Milwaukee Braves, who had Joe Torre, Felipe Alou, Eddie Mathews, Mack Jones, Hank Aaron, and Gene Oliver. And if Jeremy Hermida continues his recent slugging--two homers in his past three games, and eight on the season--Florida might be able to tie the major league record of seven players with 20 or more, held by the 1996 Orioles and the 2000 Blue Jays.

The Marlins could break all kinds of home run records and still not stick around the division lead in the second half due to their rotation, which is the worst in the National League by SNLVAR, and has also tossed the fewest innings in the majors, 5.4 per game. Olsen got off to a strong start through his first seven outings, but his peripheral numbers--namely, an extremely low BABIP--hinted at a course reversal, which has occurred over his past eight starts: a 6.60 RA in 43 2/3 innings. However, that Olsen has been effective at all this year (1.8 SNLVAR) is impressive given that his velocity has fallen steeply: Olsen is averaging 87.4 mph on his fastball, down from 90.1 last year and 90.9 in 2006, and the speed of his slider is also off. Often such a velocity drop indicates an injury, but Olsen has kept his name out of Under the Knife so far.

Matchup: Orioles (38-36) at Cubs (48-28), 7:05 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Jeremy Guthrie (102 2/3 IP, 3.86 RA, 1.21 WHIP, 68 K) vs. Sean Marshall (31 2/3, 3.69, 1.01, 25, Triple-A)
Pythagorean Record: Baltimore, 36-38 (329 RS, 343 RA); Chicago, 49-27 (418 RS, 306 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Baltimore, #17; Chicago, #2
Prospectus: The Cubs implement phase one of the Marshall Plan tonight, bringing up Sean from Triple-A Iowa to take ace Carlos Zambrano's spot in the rotation. Zambrano's injury is not serious and he is expected to miss just the minimum, so given the quality performance of fifth man Sean Gallagher, Marshall will likely return to the cornfields after pitching tonight and on Sunday. The 25-year-old left-hander has gotten a bit of a raw deal this year from the parent club, as he was not given a legitimate shot to win a spot in the starting rotation out of the spring after he made 19 starts and put up an ERA 19 percent better than league average last year. Chicago had Marshall pitching in an ill-fitting lefty specialist role out of the bullpen, then sent him down to resume starting in Iowa, where he has thrown well in seven starts. Guthrie has also gotten a raw deal from the Orioles, who have scored just 3.5 runs per game in his 16 starts. Guthrie has tossed 12 quality outings, but has been credited with just three wins thus far, or 3.4 fewer than his performance has deserved. Guthrie can't complain too loudly, however, given that those batters who have failed to put up runs for him have supported him fully in the field, as the Orioles are now way out in front of the other 29 teams with a defensive efficiency of .723.

Cubs pitchers have been outstanding this season, but if there has been an Achilles heel for the staff, it is control. Rich Hill has already lost his, and now Carlos Marmol is going through a stretch where he can't find the plate. In his last two outings, Marmol has faced 10 batters, walking five and hitting two, and five of which scored, which has raised his ERA from 2.09 to 3.07. Marmol, however, has not given up a hit in his last six appearances, and on the season has now allowed just 18 safeties in 44 innings, or 3.7 H/9. If the season ended today, Marmol would own the lowest H/9 rate in a season with 40 or more innings pitched in major league history, besting the 4.0 that Eric Gagne allowed in 2003.