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June 16, 2008

Prospectus Today

Interleague Insanity

by Joe Sheehan

Through two series of interleague play, the Red Sox are 5-1 while the Rays are 3-3. The White Sox are 4-2 while the Indians are 2-4. The Braves are 4-2, the Phillies, 1-2. The Diamondbacks are 3-3, and the Dodgers are 1-5. Interleague play has the potential to create situations in which a division winner or wild-card entrant into the postseason is actually the team with the second-best mark among its competition in its own league. Interleague play has changed the outcomes of playoff races, and has the potential to do so in every season.

Had only National League games gone towards NL playoff position last season, things would have been even more muddled than they actually were. The Cubs had one fewer interleague series than the Brewers did, and the two were separated by just a half-game in NL contests. The NL West was even more convoluted, because through 162 games, the Padres had the best record of the three contenders in NL games, 83-64, as compared to 79-65 for the Rockies and 82-65 for the Diamondbacks. Interleague play is what put the Padres into the one-game playoff, and subsequently out of the postseason.

Looking back, you can see just how unfair this arrangement was to the Padres. Each of the three teams played the Orioles, Red Sox, and Rays three games each. Here are the "not in common" interleague series (all three games) for the three teams:

Diamondbacks: Orioles (.426), Yankees (.580)
Rockies: Royals (.426), Yankees (.580), Blue Jays (.512)
Padres: Mariners (.543), Mariners (.543)

The Padres drew the short straw, even conceding that they didn’t have to play the Yankees. They had the toughest interleague schedule of the group, the worst interleague record, and they missed the postseason because of that gap. Now, no Padre will blame the scheduling for their falling short, because of the well-established credo that you take responsibility for your performance, play the schedule you’re dealt, etc. But there’s no way you can look at the schedules these three teams played and believe that it’s "fair" when all three are fighting for the same two playoff spots.