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May 15, 2008

Prospectus Today

McCann versus Martin

by Joe Sheehan

Last Friday on "Fantasy 411," Cory Schwartz and I went back and forth a bit about Brian McCann and Russell Martin. Now, we were talking about fantasy value, and Martin’s green light on the bases tends to tip the balance to him in most formats for that game. That's because stolen bases are generally divorced from their costs in fantasy, and so have disproportionate value. Even though McCann is likely to hit for a higher average and more power, Martin is probably a better fantasy catcher.

Of course, that’s only an interesting debate if you own one of them, or are considering trading for one of them. To me, the more interesting question is which is the better player now in real baseball, and who will be the better player over the next few years. Let’s take a run at comparing the two.

I am a long-time advocate of McCann’s going back to '04, when the 20-year-old slugged .494 in Myrtle Beach back when Myrtle Beach was the Death Valley of minor league parks. Less than a year later, McCann was the Braves’ starting catcher. In a chat session some time back, I mentioned that I would rather have McCann than Joe Mauer, owing to my doubts about Mauer’s long-term viability at catcher and McCann’s power edge over the Twins’ icon. So, yeah, I’m a fan.

Martin didn’t have that one standout marker like McCann’s power at Myrtle Beach, but he has yet to have a bad performance as a professional. Drafted in 2002, Martin advanced at about a level a year, drawing more walks than he struck out in his minor league career, hitting for a respectable average and doubles power, and even running well for a catcher. Martin joined the Dodgers in May of 2006, after Dioner Navarro—a 22-year-old who had been playing well himself—suffered a bruised right wrist. Martin played so well that the Dodgers dealt Navarro to Tampa Bay before he returned from the DL. They were rewarded with a .282/.355/.436 performance that might have garnered more attention had the NL not seen one of the greatest rookie crops in MLB history—that helped Martin finish only ninth in the Rookie of the Year voting.

Now, Martin is almost exactly one year older than McCann, which gives the latter an advantage in a discussion of this nature. Let’s compare them at equivalent ages to get a sense of how each has developed. Throw out the age-18 year—Martin wasn’t a pro, while McCann was playing unimpressively in the Gulf Coast League. We’ll start with Martin’s draft year.