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May 10, 2008

Prospectus Preview

Saturday's Games to Watch

by Caleb Peiffer

Today's Full Slate of Games

Matchup: Reds (14-21) at Mets (17-15), 1:10 p.m. ET, 7:30 p.m. ET
Probable Starters: Matt Belisle (14 1/3 IP, 8.16 RA, 1.88 WHIP, 7 K) vs. Johan Santana (46 1/3 IP, 3.11 RA, 1.01 WHIP, 47 K) in Game One; Bronson Arroyo (32 1/3 IP, 9.74 RA, 1.95 WHIP, 29 K) vs. Mike Pelfrey (27 1/3 IP, 5.27 RA, 1.90 WHIP, 11 K) in Game Two
Pythagorean Record: Cincinnati, 15-20 (146 RS, 170 RA); New York, 17-15 (152 RS, 143 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Cincinnati, #22; New York, #8
Prospectus: After yesterday's rainout, we have a day-night doubleheader in which Santana will start the day game, looking for his first home win as a Met. Five of the seven home runs Santana has given up this season have come over 12 1/3 innings in his two starts at Shea, a park that has historically suppressed homers even more than it has runs. Santana will need to be wary of having that trend continue, as the Reds are coming off a seven-homer barrage in their last game, a 9-0 win over the Cubs on Wednesday. Cincinnati hit four homers in the second inning, including back-to-back blasts from Joey Votto and Adam Dunn; Votto was later involved in another back-to-back pairing in the fifth with Brandon Phillips, and added a third shot in the sixth. The left-handed Votto hit his second homer of the game against southpaw Sean Marshall, and over the course of his short big league career now has a 973 OPS against lefties in 59 plate appearances, versus 908 off right-handers in 135. Unless Votto has made a major adjustment, those numbers versus southpaws appear to be due mostly to sampling error, for while Votto has smoked righties in the minor leagues, he has not performed as well against left-handers. Last season in Triple-A, Votto hit .242/.325/.354 with two homers in 120 AB versus lefties, and in 2006 at Double-A his line against them was .262/.357/.399 with five homers in 183 AB.

Opposing New York's ace in the opener is Belisle, who has gotten pounded in his three starts since taking the spot of Josh Fogg. The Reds' fifth starter slot has been a disaster, as Belisle and Fogg have combined to give up 38 runs in 36 2/3 innings. Belisle could use a strong outing this afternoon to stave off for at least another turn what looks to be the inevitable recall of Homer Bailey from Triple-A. Reds fans are likely wondering why the organization hasn't already addressed the carnage at the back of the rotation by bringing Bailey to the majors, for the 22-year-old righty has a 2.72 RA, 1.06 WHIP, and 39/12 K/BB ratio in 46 1/3 innings for Louisville. If Bailey comes up and pitches well and Bronson Arroyo reverts to his career averages, then the Reds would have one of the best rotations in the NL, a unit that could give them the chance to get into the wild card hunt.

Matchup: Diamondbacks (23-13) at Cubs (20-15), 2:40 p.m. CT, FOX
Probable Starters: Max Scherzer (8 1/3 IP, 5 R, 1.20 WHIP, 12 K) vs. Ryan Dempster (43 IP, 4.19 RA, 1.07 WHIP, 29 K)
Pythagorean Record: Arizona, 23-13 (202 RS, 151 RA); Chicago, 22-13 (198 RS, 152 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Arizona, #1; Chicago, #5
Prospectus: Arizona's heterochromatic rookie flamethrower takes the hill for his second career start and first on national television. Scherzer's initial start was not nearly the eye-popping affair that his debut out of the bullpen was, as he gave up five runs in four innings to the Phillies. Today he has a seemingly more favorable matchup against the heavily right-handed Cubs lineup. Chicago has drawn the second most walks of any team in the majors, however, and command will still likely be Scherzer's biggest hurdle this season--he walked nearly five an inning at Double-A last year, and his top PECOTA comparable is Mike Pelfrey, another young midwestern college product with an electric fastball but far less fully developed secondary stuff and command.

Scherzer will be going up against Dempster, whose move into the starting rotation from the bullpen has so far produced a 2.72 ERA, 10^th best in the NL. Dempster has not pitched as well as that mark would indicate, however: he is tied for the major league lead with seven unearned runs allowed, and is also tied with Scott Olsen for the lowest BABIP in the NL amongst ERA qualifiers, two clear warning signs. That BABIP figure is particularly out of whack considering that Dempster has a high ground-ball percentage of 54.8, eighth in the NL, and has a higher ground-ball/fly-ball ratio than he did each of the previous two years pitching out of the bullpen. A look at Dempster's pitch data shows that he has not been throwing as hard this season as he did while serving as the team's closer--90 mph on the heater as compared to 92 the past two years--which is logical, and also that he is throwing more fastballs (59 percent to 46 percent) and fewer sliders (22 percent to 33 percent) this year than last. The decreased velocity and increased reliance on the fastball over the slider, as discussed in relation to Chien-Ming Wang recently, helps explain why Dempster's strikeouts are down but his ratio of ground-ball outs has risen.