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May 6, 2008

Under The Knife

Much Better

by Will Carroll


Clayton Kershaw (0 DXL)
Is there any logic to the "Kershaw Decree" the Dodgers are employing with their young lefty? It's a marketer's version of the "Joba Rules", a limit of 25 innings per month limit designed to have him ready for September in the big leagues. Apart from that long-term goal, I guess this would also hold true if he was needed before then, but I'm not sure how exactly this is intended to work. Minor league starters average about five starts per month, meaning Kershaw would only get five innings per start; on the other hand, if he was skipped once, the workload goes up to six innings per. Of course, Kershaw threw 26 innings in April, so maybe the decree is new. Wait, no, he threw 6 2/3 in his last outing, leaving him only 18 1/3 to spread over an expected four starts, something that would nearly necessitate a tandem arrangement with somebody else on the staff. In that last outing, he threw an estimated 96 pitches, so even being low on the estimate—and I'm sure someone has the actual count—wouldn't make that a terribly taxing arrangement. If the goal is to keep his seasonal totals around the 150 mark, I can at least grasp that, though I'm sure that following some sort of logical program would be better than seemingly arbitrary edicts.

Justin Verlander (0 DXL)
Jack Morris may not be a Hall of Fame pitcher, but that doesn't mean he knows what he's talking about with pitching. Just because you're good at something based on a natural talent and a solid work ethic doesn't make you an analyst. I'll acknowledge that when it comes to the on-the-mound stuff, Morris knows more than I'll ever know, but when he ventures into my territory, Houdini-ing an injury, and does so with less evidence than he did when discussing Johan Santana's pitch selection, I have to call it like I see it. Morris claimed that Verlander looked hurt, that "he has to be hurting because he's not extending the arm"; I guess the mid-90's velocity and solid performance (albeit in a losing effort) against the Twins didn't convince him. I watched the tape of that game and Verlander's previous two starts, and compared them to a performance from last year (albeit only highlights). I don't see a significant difference. Paired with work Verlander was doing in spring training focused on movement and command over velocity and Verlander's insistence that he feels fine, I'm siding with the young pitcher over the ex-pitcher. Maybe Morris will discuss pitching to the score next.

Bronson Arroyo (0 DXL)
Reds fans might not be happy to hear that Arroyo is fine; his recent terrible results led Dusty Baker to put his starter in front of doctors and trainers for a full check-up despite Arroyo's insistence that he feels no physical problems. The medical staff concurred, finding nothing physical at the root of Arroyo's recent struggles. I asked one source who has seen Arroyo pitch twice this season if he saw anything different: "No, except he's not getting anyone out." The issue now becomes one for Baker and pitching coach Dick Pole to figure out. With his contract, Arroyo is going to be tough to trade or dump, and aside from that the Reds need someone who's going to take the ball every fifth day in order to protect the bottom of their rotation. If the team can't get him straightened out, isn't that an indictment of the coaching staff more than of the fired GM who signed him?

Scott Kazmir (0 DXL)
The best part about Kazmir's first start is that he'll make his second one. He came out of a tough initial assignment against the Red Sox feeling good, and reportedly felt just as good Monday morning, another good sign. His next two games won't get any easier, as he'll draw the Yankees and Angels in his next two scheduled starts, but an ace wants those assignments, and Kazmir is desperate to prove that he really is just that, an ace. It looks as if his elbow won't be what holds him back from achieving that goal, not now.

John Lackey (45 DXL)
Lackey made it through four innings and seventy pitches during his latest rehab start in High-A Rancho Cucamonga. While his results were mediocre, it was getting his work in without a setback that was the important part, and on that level it was a success. Lackey's had no recurrence of elbow pain or problems with his triceps during his rehab; he's scheduled to have one more start, likely back in extended spring training, before he gets activated. That last assignment is so that the Angels can control the number of pitches he throws, something they feel is important after Lackey came up a bit short of his 75-pitch plan on Monday. He's on pace to come back to the Angels in about ten days.

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<< Previous Article
Prospectus Preview: Tu... (05/06)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Under The Knife: Welco... (05/05)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Under The Knife: Fashi... (05/08)
Next Article >>
Prospectus Today: Thre... (05/06)

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