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April 27, 2008

Future Shock

Hot Starts

by Kevin Goldstein

Christina Kahrl quoted from the film Repo Man in a recent article, but little does she know that she’s really just the number two fan of the film here at BP. [Ed. Note: Pistols at dawn, there's just no way.] Early in the film, when agents are investigating the fried corpse of a highway patrolman who made the mistake of opening the trunk of a car filled with aliens, the head of the conspiracy brushes it off with the line, “People just explode.” Well sometimes prospects just explode, and small sample sizes sometimes are damned, as here is one player from each of the full-season leagues who is exploding, but also has the scouting reports or existing potential to confidently up their stock. Some are already good prospects, some are working their way up to that status.

Triple-A International League: Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pirates
The 2005 first-round pick disappointed many with a .258/.327/.383 line at Double-A last year, but scouts still were completely in love with the tools and remained very high on McCutchen. Look out, because here comes the power, and here comes the patience. They often go hand in hand—good hitters only swing at good pitches, and good things happen—and with McCutchen that's evidenced by a .294/.375/.576 line so far in 21 games for Indianapolis, including 14 of his 25 hits going for extra bases, with five home runs. Last year, he might have been a bit rushed, but this year, he’s well on his way to being a solid Rookie of the Year candidate in 2009.

Triple-A Pacific Coast League: Hernan Iribarren, OF, Brewers
Iribarren has always hit—he entered the season with a career minor league average of .324—but his defensive shortcomings always got him dinged him as a prospect... a little too much. A bat like this always plays, and while the Brewers moved the 23-year-old Venezuelan to the outfield this year, he’s still hitting, to the tune of .348/.426/.413 in 12 Nashville games wrapped around a brief big league debut. He doesn’t have much in the way of power, but his contact ability is big league-worthy as an occasional starter and high-end utility guy.

Double-A Eastern League: Greg Golson, OF, Phillies
Golson entered the year with a career batting line of .260/.304/.399, including 493 strikeouts and just 89 walks in 405 pro games. At the same time, he might possess the best package of tools in all of the minor leagues. Off to the best start of his career at .321/.367/.512 in 20 games for the Reading Phillies, Golson’s 25 strikeouts and six walks in 84 at-bats is nothing to write home about, but it’s also leaps and bounds above his previous ratios, and he still has plenty of power potential, tons of speed, and a cannon arm that might the best of any center fielder around. It’s the first time in five years that he’s shown tools and production, but his ceiling ranks with nearly anyone else around.

Double-A Southern League: Michael Saunders, OF, Mariners
Saunders broke out a bit last year, batting .299/.392/.473, but many worried that it was a California League-generated mirage. The big Canadian always had a lot of athleticism, but he was incredibly raw, which is understandable considering his cold-weather upbringing in hockey land. Now batting .316/.402/.513 in 21 games for San Antonio, his transformation from athlete to baseball player continues to make progress, and if he can tap into his power potential, there’s really no weaknesses in his offensive game, as he’s a plus runner with a patient approach.