Today we reveal the Baseball Prospectus staff predictions for the division standings and the major player awards (MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year) in the American League. The National League predictions will follow, along with the staff picks in some fun miscellaneous categories.
Each staff member’s division standings predictions may be found later in the article. Here, we present a wisdom-of-the-crowds summary of the results. In each table you’ll find the average rank of each team in their division, plus the results of our preseason MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year voting.
The wild card team is marked with an asterisk, with first-place votes in parentheses.
Team Average Boston Red Sox 1.2 (13) New York Yankees 1.8*(4) Tampa Bay Rays 3.4 Toronto Blue Jays 3.6 Baltimore Orioles 4.9
AL Central
Team Average Detroit Tigers 1.5 (9) Cleveland Indians 1.5 (8) Chicago White Sox 3.7 Minnesota Twins 4.0 Kansas City Royals 4.2
AL West
Team Average Los Angeles Angels 1.1 (16) Seattle Mariners 2.5 (1) Oakland Athletics 2.8 Texas Rangers 3.6
Individual Awards:
For the MVP voting, we’ve slightly amended the traditional points system in place that’s been used elsewhere, dropping fourth- and fifth-place votes to make it 10-7-5 for the MVP Award, and the regular 5-3-1 for the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year Awards (that’s 5 points for a first-place vote, 3 for a second-place vote, etc).
Next to each selection we’ve listed the total number of ballots followed by the total number of points, followed by the number of first-place votes in parentheses, if any were received.
AL MVP
- Miguel Cabrera, 3B, Tigers. 14, 118 (8)
- Alex Rodriguez, 3B, Yankees. 14, 106 (4)
- Grady Sizemore, CF, Indians. 7, 44 (1)
- David Ortiz, DH, Red Sox. 6, 42 (2)
- Manny Ramirez, LF, Red Sox. 4, 32 (2)
- Vladimir Guerrero, RF, Angels. 2, 12
- Carl Crawford, LF, Rays. 2, 10
- Nick Swisher, OF, White Sox. 1, 5
- Curtis Granderson, CF, Tigers. 1, 5
AL Cy Young
- Justin Verlander, Tigers. 10, 34 (4)
- Josh Beckett, Red Sox. 7, 23 (3)
- Erik Bedard, Mariners. 7, 23 (3) 11
- Felix Hernandez, Mariners. 3, 13 (2)
- C.C. Sabathia, Indians. 5, 13 (1)
- Scott Kazmir, Rays. 5, 11 (1)
- Roy Halladay, Blue Jays. 4, 8 (1)
- Joba Chamberlain, Yankees. 2, 6
- James Shields, Rays. 1, 5 (1)
- Fausto Carmona, Indians. 1, 5 (1)
- Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees. 2, 4
- Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox. 1, 3
- Rich Harden, Athletics. 1, 3
- Javier Vazquez, White Sox. 1, 1
- Dustin McGowan, Blue Jays. 1,1
AL RotY
- Evan Longoria, Rays. 12, 36 (4)
- Joba Chamberlain, Yankees. 10, 34 (4)
- Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox. 8, 24 (3)
- Daric Barton, A’s. 8, 22 (1)
- Clay Buchholz, Red Sox. 6, 20 (3)
- Alexei Ramirez, White Sox. 4, 8 (1)
- Ian Kennedy, Yankees. 1, 5 (1)
- Wladimir Balentien, Mariners. 1, 3
- Adam Miller, Indians. 1, 1
- Kevin Goldstein
- Joe Sheehan
- Dan Fox
- Christina Kahrl
- Marc Normandin
- Jay Jaffe
- John Perrotto
- Nate Silver
- Jim Baker
- Ben Murphy
- Brad Wochomurka
- Derek Jacques
- David Laurila
- Bryan Smith
- William Burke
- Jason Paré
- Caleb Peiffer
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees* Indians Mariners Rays White Sox Rangers Blue Jays Twins A's Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Manny Ramirez
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Scott Kazmir
AL RotY
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Evan Longoria
3. Daric Barton
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees* Indians Rangers Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Rays Royals Athletics Orioles Twins
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Justin Verlander
3. Roy Halladay
AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Alexei Ramirez
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees Tigers* A's Blue Jays White Sox Mariners Rays Royals Rangers Orioles Twins
AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. Justin Verlander
3. Erik Bedard
AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Daric Barton
3. Clay Buchholz
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees* Indians Mariners Blue Jays Royals A's Rays Twins Rangers Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Ortiz
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. C.C. Sabathia
3. Roy Halladay
AL RotY
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Daric Barton
3. Evan Longoria
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees* Tigers Mariners Rays Royals A's Blue Jays Twins Rangers Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. David Ortiz
3. Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. Scott Kazmir
3. Erik Bedard
AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Clay Buchholz
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Yankees Indians Angels Red Sox Tigers* A's Rays White Sox Mariners Blue Jays Royals Rangers Orioles Twins
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young
1. James Shields
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Josh Beckett
AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Alexei Ramirez
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees* Indians A's Blue Jays Royals Rangers Rays Twins Mariners Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. David Ortiz
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Vladimir Guerrero
AL Cy Young
1. Roy Halladay
2. Josh Beckett
3. C.C. Sabathia
AL RotY
1. Clay Buchholz
2. Jacoby Ellsbury
3. Joba Chamberlain
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Yankees Tigers Angels Red Sox Indians* A's Rays White Sox Mariners Orioles Royals Rangers Blue Jays Twins
AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Nick Swisher
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Rich Harden
3. Scott Kazmir
AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Daric Barton
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Yankees Tigers Angels Red Sox* Indians A's Rays White Sox Mariners Blue Jays Twins Rangers Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Ortiz
AL Cy Young
1. Josh Beckett
2. Chien-Ming Wang
3. Justin Verlander
AL RotY
1. Daric Barton
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adam Miller
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Yankees Indians Angels Red Sox* Tigers Mariners Rays White Sox A's Blue Jays Twins Rangers Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young
1. C.C. Sabathia
2. Erik Bedard
3. Scott Kazmir
AL RotY
1. Evan Longoria
2. Daric Barton
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees Indians* Mariners Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Rays Twins A's Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Grady Sizemore
AL Cy Young
1. Erik Bedard
2. Justin Verlander
3. Dustin McGowan
AL RotY
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Evan Longoria
3. Joba Chamberlain
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees* Indians Mariners Rays White Sox A's Blue Jays Twins Rangers Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Carl Crawford
AL Cy Young
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Josh Beckett
3. Roy Halladay
AL RotY
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Evan Longoria
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Mariners Yankees Tigers* Angels Blue Jays Twins Rangers Rays Royals A's Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. Grady Sizemore
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Curtis Granderson
AL Cy Young
1. Justin Verlander
2. Erik Bedard
3. Chien-Ming Wang
AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Evan Longoria
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Tigers Angels Yankees* Indians A's Rays Twins Mariners Blue Jays Royals Rangers Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young
1. Scott Kazmir
2. C.C. Sabathia
3. Justin Verlander
AL RotY
1. Alexei Ramirez
2. Daric Barton
3. Evan Longoria
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees* White Sox Mariners Rays Tigers A's Blue Jays Twins Rangers Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Manny Ramirez
2. Vladimir Guerrero
3. Carl Crawford
AL Cy Young
1. Erik Bedard
2. Jonathan Papelbon
3. Javier Vazquez
AL RotY
1. Ian Kennedy
2. Wladimir Balentien
3. Daric Barton
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees* Tigers Mariners Rays Twins A's Blue Jays White Sox Rangers Orioles Royals
AL MVP
1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Alex Rodriguez
3. David Ortiz
AL Cy Young
1. Erik Bedard
2. Justin Verlander
3. Josh Beckett
AL RotY
1. Jacoby Ellsbury
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. Evan Longoria
Standings
AL East AL Central AL West Red Sox Indians Angels Yankees* Tigers A's Blue Jays Twins Rangers Rays Royals Mariners Orioles White Sox
AL MVP
1. David Ortiz
2. Grady Sizemore
3. Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young
1. Fausto Carmona
2. Joba Chamberlain
3. C.C. Sabathia
AL RotY
1. Joba Chamberlain
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Alexei Ramirez
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