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“He (Ozzie Smith) plays like he’s on a mini-trampoline or wearing helium kangaroo shorts.”
Andy Van Slyke

When I began looking at creating a fielding system based on Retrosheet-style play-by-play data, there were two primary sets of data for which it seemed ideally suited. First, since fine-grained hit location data in the form of zones is not recorded at the minor league level, the system–if indeed it could be proven accurate enough–seemed ideal for measuring defense at the minor league level. Two things validate that: comparisons with UZR at the major league level, and a recent column exploring how the system stacks up against scouting judgments of the best defensive players in each organization. In the end, the three different methods largely agree. The second set of data is historical play-by-play data at the major league level that contains the crucial pieces of information needed to run the system as is. It is this data set that today’s column will focus on.

In short, there is a subset of the historical play-by-play data set that contains nearly complete records, with reference to which fielder fielded the ball and the particular hit type (line drive, grounder, fly ball, popup). Armed with this information, the SFR algorithms can be executed against data from 1988 through 1998 without having to make any corrections or allowances for missing data. Earlier this week, that’s exactly what I did, and so we’ll get in our Way Back Machine and sift through the results for that particular eleven-year period. Hopefully we’ll bring to mind a few fond–and perhaps not so fond–memories of players from that era.

So let’s start our look at the decade-plus-one in Table 1, with the overall SFR leader from each season (for a single team), regardless of position:


Year  Player           Team   Pos   Age   Balls Runners  Diff     SFR
1988  Ozzie Guillen     CHA    SS    24     804     155    36    27.0
1989  Ozzie Smith       SLN    SS    34     709     143    33    24.6
1990  Ozzie Smith       SLN    SS    35     532      92    36    27.3
1991  Ryne Sandberg     CHN    2B    31     721     162    27    19.7
1992  Craig Grebeck     CHA    SS    27     393      86    28    20.9
1993  Scott Fletcher    BOS    2B    34     522      96    27    20.2
1994  Cal Ripken        BAL    SS    33     459     105    20    15.1
1995  Cal Ripken        BAL    SS    34     574     121    27    20.5
1996  Mark Lemke        ATL    2B    30     533     111    24    18.0
1997  Rey Ordonez       NYN    SS    25     488      95    28    21.0
1998  Robin Ventura     CHA    3B    30     458      73    28    22.2

As a quick refresher: Balls are the number of balls allocated to the fielder’s virtual area of responsibility, Runners are the actual number of runners who reached base. Diff is the delta between the number of runners who would have been expected to reach versus the number who actually did, and SFR is a conversion of that difference (broken down into one and two base components) into runs saved above or below what an average fielder would have done.

Those players who bubble up to the top in Table 1 don’t really come as a surprise, which gives us confidence that the system does indeed function as expected against this data set. The list has three Hall of Famers who were certainly no slouches with the glove in Ozzie Smith, Ryne Sandberg, and Cal Ripken, as do highly-regarded defenders like Ozzie Guillen, Rey Ordonez, and Robin Ventura.

Now we’ll examine each of the four infield positions in a little more detail…

Shortstops

What’s most interesting about the shortstops shown in Table 1 is that Ozzie Smith put up those seasons of around +25 runs at the relatively advanced ages of 34 and 35. Although I haven’t run SFR for earlier seasons–for reasons explained in the introduction to this column–one wonders whether this represents a significant decline from his peak and, if so, what his peak would look like under this system. In any case, Table 2 shows the full data for the Wizard of Oz:

Table 2. Ozzie Smith 1988-1996


Year  Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR    Rate
1988    768     163    24    18.0    1.15
1989    709     143    33    24.6    1.23
1990    532      92    36    27.3    1.39
1991    638     183    -3    -2.5    0.98
1992    676     177    13     9.7    1.07
1993    692     167     9     6.7    1.05
1994    464     135    -9    -6.9    0.93
1995    178      44     7     5.0    1.15
1996    253      52    11     8.1    1.21

SFR records a decline immediately after that 1990 season, as he never topped +9.7 runs again in his final six seasons. Still, to be worth over 13 runs in less than a season’s worth of play at ages 40 and 41 (1995 and 1996) is pretty special. You’ll also notice in Table 2 that we’ve included a Rate in the final column that is simply calculated as the ratio of expected to actual baserunners for the chosen time period. Perhaps surprisingly, in 1995 and 1996 in limited playing time, Smith’s rate was actually higher than it had been since 1990. Overall during this timeframe, Smith was +90 runs at shortstop, which places him second behind only Cal Ripken’s +112.

Since Ripken is the leader, it’s worth taking a look at his numbers as well:

Table 3. Cal Ripken at Shortstop 1988-1997


Year  Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR    Rate
1988    673     155     5       4    1.03
1989    756     166    22      16    1.13
1990    643     137    18      13    1.13
1991    785     182    25      19    1.14
1992    688     178    17      13    1.09
1993    717     176    12       9    1.07
1994    459     105    20      15    1.19
1995    574     121    27      20    1.23
1996    666     168     4       3    1.02
1997      3       1    -1       0    0.35

One of the main differences in looking at Ripken versus Smith is that this timeframe covers Ripken’s age-27 through age-36 seasons, so we might expect his values and his rates to be consistently a little higher. When Ripken moved to third base full time in 1997 he rated at +5.5 SFR / 1.08 Rate and performed equally well in 1998 at +8.7/1.15. Taken together, Ripken is by far the fielder who contributed the most runs over that time span at +127, with Mark Lemke second at +93, followed in turn by Smith.

But these questions about rates leads directly to wondering which shortstops (and, by extension, fielders at other positions) rated the best and worst in terms of rate over this time period. Table 4 provides the answer for those shortstops who had 1,000 or more balls assigned to their area of responsibility, and it’s not surprising that Ripken and Smith occupy two of the top four spots:

Table 4. Top and Bottom Shortstops by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996


Name                 Span      Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR   Rate
Rey Sanchez        1991-1998    1723     388     74   55.1   1.19
Deivi Cruz         1997-1998    1184     299     36   27.0   1.12
Cal Ripken         1988-1997    5963    1389    149  111.6   1.11
Ozzie Smith        1988-1996    4911    1157    121   90.2   1.10
John Valentin      1992-1996    2361     561     58   43.6   1.10
Alan Trammell      1988-1996    3234     744     61   45.9   1.08
Greg Gagne         1988-1997    5777    1388    111   82.7   1.08
Jose Valentin      1993-1998    2513     619     45   33.7   1.07
Nomar Garciaparra  1996-1998    1336     334     24   18.1   1.07
Ozzie Guillen      1988-1998    5749    1349     97   72.1   1.07
------------------------------------------------------------------
Edgar Renteria     1996-1998    1715     504    -38  -28.1   0.93
Andres Thomas      1988-1990    1674     439    -39  -29.5   0.91
Rafael Ramirez     1988-1992    2061     562    -51  -38.1   0.91
Jose Offerman      1990-1996    2597     775    -72  -54.3   0.91
Wil Cordero        1992-1995    1689     513    -48  -35.8   0.91
Chris Gomez        1993-1998    2620     792    -77  -57.7   0.90
Dale Sveum         1988-1997    1149     333    -34  -25.7   0.90
Andujar Cedeno     1990-1996    2391     762    -90  -67.3   0.88
Kurt Stillwell     1988-1996    2214     646    -82  -62.3   0.87
Ricky Gutierrez    1993-1998    2084     684   -104  -78.2   0.85

Although Rey Sanchez also played a significant amount at second base during this period (part-time in 1994 and 1997, and full-time in 1995 for the Cubs) covering his age-23 through -30 seasons, he ends up rating the highest of any shortstop at allowing 19 percent fewer runners to reach base than would have been expected. He rated especially well in 1992 (+16/1.38), 1996 (+13/1.20), and 1998 (+13/1.29). At second base Sanchez placed eleventh overall in Rate at 1.06 with 1,043 balls assigned to his area.

Deivi Cruz takes second on the strength of just two seasons (1997 and 1998 with the Tigers) when he rated at +20/1.23 and +7/1.05. Special mention here should also be made of Craig Grebeck,who took the top spot overall in 1992 for the White Sox at +20.9 runs. From 1990 through 1998 he was at +32 runs and, if the threshold were lowered to 500 balls fielded, would rank second in Rate at 1.21, just slightly behind Mike Benjamin at 1.27.

On the flip side, we find Ricky Gutierrez on the bottom of the heap at -78.2 runs and a rate 15 percent below average. Although he played a smattering of games at second and third for San Diego and Houston during this period, he was nothing if not consistent defensively, putting up SFR numbers of -8, -12, -17, -12, -10, and -19 in consecutive seasons. Many of the remaining names on the bottom of this list–perhaps with the exception of Edgar Renteria who, it should be remembered, is only represented in three of the overall sample’s seasons–should come as no surprise to those who saw them play. It should also be mentioned here that Chris Gomez and Kurt Stillwell recorded the two lowest seasonal SFR totals at shortstop for a single team, with Gomez at -25.8 in 1997, and Stillwell at -24.2 in 1991.

No doubt I’ll field some questions this week about Derek Jeter if I don’t show his numbers as well, so Table 5 includes his 1995 through 1998 seasons:

Table 5. Derek Jeter 1995-1998


Year  Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR   Rate
1995    61      19      -3   -1.9   0.86
1996   704     191      -9   -6.9   0.95
1997   702     213     -30  -22.4   0.86
1998   589     158       9    6.7   1.06

With a good rating in 1998 he comes out at only -25 runs during the time period.

Second Base

Moving on, Table 6 lists the top and bottom second basemen in terms of Rate, once again looking only at those fielders who’ve been assigned 1,000 or more balls.

Table 6. Top and Bottom Second basemen by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996


Name                 Span      Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR   Rate
Mike Gallego       1988-1997    1936     393     65   48.3   1.17
Jose Oquendo       1988-1995    2318     464     72   53.9   1.16
Mark Lemke         1988-1998    3576     780    118   87.6   1.15
Tony Phillips      1988-1997    1330     268     37   27.2   1.14
Manuel Lee         1988-1995    1001     184     21   15.7   1.11
Scott Fletcher     1989-1995    2516     527     58   42.6   1.11
Lou Whitaker       1988-1995    3494     760     60   44.8   1.08
Ryne Sandberg      1988-1997    5207    1199     83   61.8   1.07
Luis Alicea        1988-1998    2612     591     38   27.8   1.06
Jim Gantner        1988-1992    1941     410     25   19.1   1.06
------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Frye          1992-1997    1655     431    -26  -19.7   0.94
Ray Durham         1995-1998    2310     602    -45  -33.4   0.92
Mariano Duncan     1989-1997    2110     549    -50  -37.2   0.91
Tony Womack        1994-1998    1277     372    -34  -25.6   0.91
Terry Shumpert     1990-1998    1046     293    -28  -21.4   0.90
Nelson Liriano     1988-1998    1867     474    -47  -35.5   0.90
Juan Samuel        1988-1998    2160     574    -61  -46.0   0.89
Joey Cora          1989-1998    3313     888   -102  -76.7   0.89
Carlos Garcia      1992-1998    2076     568    -71  -53.0   0.87
Gregg Jefferies    1988-1993    1230     326    -51  -38.3   0.84

Mike Gallego and Jose Oquendo take the top two spots at second base, but Mark Lemke logged much more time there, and did almost equally as well from a rate perspective, topping the charts with a SFR of +87.6 runs. Interestingly, his career line shown in Table 7 reveals no apparent age-related decline from ages 22 through 32.

Table 7. Mark Lemke at Second Base 1988-1998


Year Team   Balls Runners   Diff    SFR    Rate
1988  ATL     80      17     -1    -0.9    0.93
1989  ATL     56      12      1     0.7    1.09
1990  ATL    161      28      8     5.5    1.27
1991  ATL    306      67     10     7.2    1.14
1992  ATL    530     152      7     5.4    1.05
1993  ATL    571     114     24    17.5    1.21
1994  ATL    412      90     12     9.1    1.14
1995  ATL    429      88     12     8.8    1.13
1996  ATL    533     111     24    18.0    1.22
1997  ATL    415      90     13     9.7    1.14
1998  BOS     84      12      9     6.6    1.73

Perhaps fittingly, Ryne Sandberg and Lou Whitaker are virtually tied, with Whitaker edging Sandberg in Rate, but Sandberg played significantly more, resulting in 17 additional runs saved. Whitaker had his best season in this period in 1990, putting up a +20/1.35, while Sandberg had two seasons of approximately +20 runs, at +20/1.16 in 1991 and then +21/1.16 in 1992, which ranked second and fifth in the single-season leaders. However, the top single season by a second baseman goes to Jose Oquendo, who recorded an SFR of +23.8 in 1990 for the Cardinals.

Readers will no doubt recall that Greg Jefferies was moved around a bit in an effort to hide his glove, thereby logging significant time at both third and first base as well as in the outfield. He did his damage at second base putting up -16/0.81, -14/0.85, and -7/0.89 from 1989 through 1991 at ages 21 through 23.

Although Carlos Garcia rated more poorly, Joey Cora logged the most time at second base of any of the bottom ten. He racked up a significant percentage of his -76.7 total runs (most for a second baseman) with four consecutive consistently poor showings from 1995 through 1998 after being acquired by Seattle. In those years–which were his age-30 through -33 seasons–he rated at -19/0.80, -16/0.84, -18/0.83, and -17/0.83.

The lowest single season total by a large margin belongs to Tony Womack, who put up a -29.2 in 1997 for the Pirates. The next-closest competitor is Todd Walker‘s -24.3 in 1998 for the Twins.

Third Base

As we move to the hot corner, consider Table 8, which lists the top and bottom third basemen, once again in terms of Rate.

Table 8. Top and Bottom Third basemen by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996


Name                 Span      Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR   Rate
Edgardo Alfonzo    1995-1998    1018     187     35   27.7   1.19
Scott Brosius      1991-1998    1533     282     49   38.1   1.17
Matt Williams      1988-1998    3757     678     97   74.9   1.14
Robin Ventura      1989-1998    3660     676     85   66.5   1.13
Gary Gaetti        1988-1998    3825     727     90   70.4   1.12
Brook Jacoby       1988-1992    1526     286     30   23.4   1.10
Chris Sabo         1988-1996    2287     440     44   34.6   1.10
Tim Wallach        1988-1996    3368     633     61   47.2   1.10
Scott Cooper       1991-1997    1366     284     27   21.0   1.09
Wade Boggs         1988-1998    3680     698     65   51.3   1.09
------------------------------------------------------------------
Sean Berry         1990-1998    1688     401    -24  -18.1   0.94
Bobby Bonilla      1988-1998    2619     585    -35  -27.5   0.94
Dave Magadan       1988-1998    1307     303    -19  -14.5   0.94
Leo Gomez          1990-1996    1619     374    -30  -24.1   0.92
Mike Blowers       1989-1998    1534     368    -35  -27.1   0.91
Todd Zeile         1990-1998    3282     803    -76  -60.4   0.90
Dean Palmer        1989-1998    2491     623    -67  -52.4   0.89
Gary Sheffield     1989-1993    1458     357    -40  -31.8   0.89
Howard Johnson     1988-1995    1396     338    -44  -34.3   0.87
Jim Presley        1988-1991    1121     266    -41  -31.9   0.85

During this time period, Edgardo Alfonzo and Scott Brosius both did very well from a rate perspective, but a trio of third sackers–Matt Williams, Robin Ventura, and Gary Gaetti–played significantly more often, and each saved their teams roughly 70 runs over those years. Of those three, Williams stands a little above the others in both rate and total SFR; we can see in his career line that SFR recorded only one sub-par season (1996, his final year with the Giants) out of those eleven. Once again, there is no age-related decline to speak of.

Table 9. Matt Williams at Third Base 1988-1998


Year Team   Balls Runners   Diff    SFR    Rate
1988  SFN    135      21       4    3.2    1.20
1989  SFN    206      23      15   11.9    1.65
1990  SFN    483      74      18   14.4    1.25
1991  SFN    488      94       2    1.5    1.03
1992  SFN    444      83       7    5.6    1.09
1993  SFN    429      87       6    4.6    1.07
1994  SFN    357      65      16   12.1    1.24
1995  SFN    274      55       5    3.6    1.08
1996  SFN    296      66      -5   -3.5    0.93
1997  CLE    442      76      18   13.9    1.23
1998  ARI    202      33      10    7.6    1.29

While Williams’ rates were consistently higher (outside of 1996) Ventura recorded two of the top seven SFR seasons during this period, with his +16 in 1992 and a +22 in 1998 at the age of 30. Ventura also ranked above average in each of his ten seasons at third base while Gary Gaetti did so in ten of eleven seasons. Honorable mention goes to Chris Sabo, whose 1988 SFR of +24.3 with the Reds was the single highest total for a third baseman for a single team, with Terry Pendleton‘s +23 in 1989 for the Cardinals a close second.

Gaetti, Ken Caminiti, and especially Tim Wallach were all particularly good at fielding bunts, with respective SFR totals and opportunities of +11/178, +12/194, and +14/166. On the other side of the coin, Dave Magadan (-8/61), Jim Thome (-7/67, before being shifted permanently to first base in 1997), and Kevin Seitzer (-7/80) were… not so good.

At the bottom of the stack we find a collection of notably poor defenders, including a young Gary Sheffield who was tried at third by the Brewers, Padres, and Marlins after recording a collective -14/0.84 at shortstop for the Brewers in 1988 and 1989 at the tender ages of 19 and 20.

In terms of total runs, Todd Zeile is our “winner” at -60.4, who managed to record subpar SFR totals and rates in all eleven seasons. He was particularly poor on bunts, recording an SFR of -9 in 157 opportunities–the lowest total among third baseman. His work at catcher and first base drops his overall total to -65 runs and, when combined with his baserunning efforts (an EqBRR of -38), during this time period he cost his teams on the order of 100 runs in these “secondary” skills.

Although Zeile’s -15.2/0.86 performance for the Cardinals in 1993 was among the poorest showings by a third baseman during this period, it was Russ Davis playing for Seattle in 1998 who almost lapped the field, recording an SFR of -25.8 and a Rate of 0.73. The next closest competitor was Howard Johnson at -16.4 in 1989 for the Mets.

First Base

Finally, we’ll wrap up with a look at first basemen, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10. Top and Bottom First Basemen by Rate, >= 1,000 Balls 1988-1996


Name                 Span      Balls  Runners  Diff    SFR   Rate
John Olerud        1989-1998    2433     295     73   58.7   1.25
Sid Bream          1988-1994    1163     122     25   19.3   1.20
Jeff King          1989-1998    1072     142     27   20.7   1.19
Rafael Palmeiro    1988-1998    3299     440     63   49.4   1.14
Pete O'Brien       1988-1993    1369     161     23   18.1   1.14
Mark Grace         1988-1998    4122     528     73   57.0   1.14
Ricky Jordan       1988-1996    1167     134     15   12.0   1.11
Glenn Davis        1988-1993    1101     135     11    8.2   1.08
Wally Joyner       1988-1998    3132     432     34   26.3   1.08
Jeff Bagwell       1991-1998    2644     376     29   22.7   1.08
------------------------------------------------------------------
Randy Milligan     1988-1994    1221     177     -6   -5.2   0.97
Fred McGriff       1988-1998    3158     470    -17  -12.4   0.96
Will Clark         1988-1998    3537     521    -23  -19.0   0.96
J.T. Snow          1992-1998    1499     228    -11   -7.7   0.95
Rico Brogna        1992-1998    1126     186    -10   -7.9   0.95
David Segui        1990-1998    1712     287    -23  -17.7   0.92
Cecil Fielder      1988-1998    1771     290    -26  -20.3   0.91
Paul Sorrento      1989-1998    1617     266    -27  -22.0   0.90
Frank Thomas       1990-1998    1694     294    -40  -31.1   0.87
Pedro Guerrero     1988-1992    1033     170    -28  -21.8   0.84

Keep in mind that SFR does not include a key component of first base defense–fielding throws from other infielders. Even so, notable scoop artist John Olerud comes out well on top, at +58.7 runs and a rate of 1.25, and scoring positively in every season from 1991 through 1998. His top season came in 1998 at the age of 29, when he was with the Mets and recorded a +17/1.50. Both Rafael Palmeiro and Mark Grace played more, as did Wally Joyner and even Jeff Bagwell. Grace’s seasonal totals are shown in Table 11:

Table 11. Mark Grace at First Base 1988-1998


Year Team   Balls Runners   Diff    SFR    Rate
1988  CHN     300     45      -7   -5.2    0.85
1989  CHN     396     53       2    1.2    1.03
1990  CHN     468     59       3    2.3    1.05
1991  CHN     489     59      12    9.4    1.20
1992  CHN     451     45      21   16.9    1.47
1993  CHN     370     42      10    7.9    1.24
1994  CHN     247     37       3    2.2    1.08
1995  CHN     322     43       5    3.6    1.10
1996  CHN     341     37      11    8.4    1.29
1997  CHN     367     41      12    9.7    1.30
1998  CHN     369     66       1    0.7    1.01

Both Grace and Olerud capture three of the top ten seasonal totals during the time period, with Olerud’s 1998 season topping the charts, followed by Grace in 1992. One of the seemingly clear differences between Olerud and Grace is that Grace performed much better on bunts, recording a total SFR of +8 runs in 280 opportunities, far outdistancing Andres Galarraga (+4/192) and Jeff Bagwell (+4/223). Meanwhile Olerud recorded just +1 runs in 102 opportunities.

Pedro Guerrero, playing for the both the Dodgers and Cardinals, recorded the lowest rate: just 0.84 in 1,033 opportunities at first base. Interestingly, he still ranked last despite a healthy positive contribution on bunts at +4 runs in 57 opportunities. When you also consider his 1988 experience at third for the Dodgers–where he recorded a -9/0.65–his total in the infield drops to -32 runs.

Will Clark and Fred McGriff logged the most time at first base and Clark recorded the single lowest SFR total at first in 1998 with the Rangers at -15.2/0.77.

In perusing this table, one might be surprised (like I was) that J.T. Snow appears on the bottom, since he developed a good defensive reputation over the years. In fact, SFR overall doesn’t like him very much, recording negative values in six of the eleven seasons on which it has data (1992-1998 and 2003-2006) with a whopping -10 in 1995. In only one season is his SFR above 5, when it was +5.6 in 1998.

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Dan Fox

 

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