March 9, 2008

Prospectus Today

The Teflon Manager

by Joe Sheehan

I’m trying to maintain my optimism about the Cincinnati Reds, but it’s hard. I see a team that had a good offense last year, that has two rotation anchors, four of the top 40 or so prospects in baseball, and no real holes in the lineup.

I also see a team with a manager completely and totally ill-suited to his personnel, with an outsized reputation that far exceeds his actual performance and more control over the roster than he should be allowed. Sometimes I think I’m too hard on Dusty Baker, given that he has managed successful teams, made postseasons, won a pennant, owns a career .527 winning percentage from the dugout. Maybe I make him a caricature, a toothpick-chewing, OBP-hating Luddite who doesn’t trust anyone under 30.

Then he starts talking…

“On [Joey] Votto: ‘He needs to swing some more. I talked to him about that. Strikeouts aren’t the only criteria. I’d like to see him more aggressive.’

“’A lot of this on-base percentage is taking away from the aggressiveness of some young kids. Most of the time you’ve got to put handcuffs on a young to keep him from swinging.’”

(A nod to John Fay at the Cincinnati Enquirer.)

I left the last sentence in for completeness, even though it seems to say the exact opposite of the one prior to it. The keys are Baker attempting to ruin Votto, and his persistence in regarding OBP as a negative. A few years back, the blogosphere had a field day with Baker’s talk about “clogging the bases” while he was with the Cubs. We’re right back to that point again, with Baker not getting one of the most basic things about baseball: not making outs is the best thing you can do. Baker is fixated on the end result—the event that leads to a runner crossing the plate—and still doesn’t understand that in the big picture, keeping the line moving will put more runs on the board.

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