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February 29, 2008

Future Shock

Organizational Rankings, Part 1

by Kevin Goldstein

16. Chicago Cubs
Last Year's Ranking: 21
Why They're Up: The struggles of Donald Veal and the graduation of Felix Pie are both offset by Geovany Soto's breakout seasons and what is looking like a very strong 2007 draft.
Strengths: Solid offensive prospects at nearly every level, with Josh Vitters providing big-time potential. Despite disappointing 2007 performances, there are several power arms in the system.
Weaknesses: Very little pitching that is close to being ready to help; Soto's move to the majors leaves little else in the way of power.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Down a tad. Soto is now in the majors; Sean Gallagher and Eric Patterson could both be moving on or out as well.

17. Pittsburgh Pirates
Last Year's Ranking: 25
Why They're Up: Neil Walker's transition to third base has been a rousing success; Steven Pearce proved to be a good hitting prospect; things could be even better if they did the right thing in the draft.
Strengths: Andrew McCutchen, Pearce and Walker give them three players who should be everyday players by 2009--few other teams can match that.
Weaknesses: They're light on pitching, especially in power arms who can start; position prospects after the big three offer little upside.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Up. The number two overall pick in June (and a new administration to make the decision) should add a future star to the organization.

18. Minnesota Twins
Last Year's Ranking: 12
Why They're Down: Kevin Slowey (innings) and Matt Garza (innings, then traded to Tampa Bay) lost their eligibility; their 2006 draft picks disappoint in full-season debuts; would have been much worse without the Johan Santana deal.
Strengths: The system still has more pitching depth than most; young center fielders Ben Revere and Joe Benson provide toolsy upside.
Weaknesses: Only power prospects are still in the raw category; pitching favors control types over power arms.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Some upward movement. The Twins have three or four breakout candidates, and it only takes one...

19. Arizona Diamondbacks
Last Year's Ranking: 6
Why They're Down: Justin Upton, Chris Young, Miguel Montero, Mark Reynolds, and Micah Owings arrived in the big leagues; much of what's left was sent to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal.
Strengths: The '07 draft adds arms of both the power and finesse types; some very athletic position players.
Weaknesses: There's very little power left in the system; there will be a gap while they wait for the young arms to develop.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Up slightly. Six of their Top 11 Prospects begin this year in A-ball, so it's more of a glass half-full thing.

20. Cleveland Indians
Last Year's Ranking: 13
Why They're Down: Top four prospects going into the year (Adam Miller, Chuck Lofgren, Trevor Crowe, John Drennen) all took big steps backwards, while Tony Sipp missed the entire year due to injury. Wes Hodges had a strong full-season debut, but it's not nearly enough to make up for the problems at the top.
Strengths: There is some depth here, and the emergence of Nick Weglarz and first-round pick Beau Mills give them some potential impact bats.
Weaknesses: Most of the best hitters are first base/designated hitter types; they have very little at catcher or shortstop.
Outlook for 2009 Ranking: Neither good nor bad. The Indians have a number of players capable of rebound seasons, but those don't happen as often as one might think or wish.