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“Baseball is Darwinian in its results but Newtonian in its processes. With rigorous empiricism fielders built up a solid foundation of knowledge through generations of trials and thousands of errors. Their peer-reviewed results quickly became standard operating procedures.”
–Cait Murphy, describing the evolution of defensive play in Crazy ’08: How a Cast of Cranks, Rogues, Boneheads, and Magnates Created the Greatest Year in Baseball History

Over the last couple of months, we’ve been playing around with measuring the efficacy of those “standard operating procedures” by using Retrosheet-style play by play codes, i.e. rather coarse records of each play, including hit type (line drive, groundball, fly ball, or popup) and the fielder who picked up the ball, but not batted ball location information. Because this method doesn’t use the most fine-grained data in existence, I’ve dubbed the system Simple Fielding Runs, or SFR for short. The system for infielders has gone through a couple of major revisions that have been fully discussed here, while the system for outfielders has also been revised from the ground up.

This week, we won’t be delving deeply into the methodology and making tweaks at the lowest levels of the system. After the results from last week, while we might still consider just why right fielders like Brian Giles and Juan Encarnacion show such large differences between SFR and UZR (but thank you to the readers who offered observational evidence of both), I’m pretty satisfied that the system works well enough to be useful. So this week I haven’t made any significant changes to the code.

Of course, at this point I’ve calculated data from five seasons (2003-2007) for major leaguers, and since the outfield system is heavily dependent on the inherent park effects that are captured by comparing how a particular fielder performed in a particular park to how all other fielders did (inspired by an approach from a reputable source), adding more data in the future will tend to smooth out the results. That said, I do want to break down the components of the outfield SFR system a little, look at a rate statistic, evaluate team totals, and combine SFR with throwing before putting a bow on top of this confection and finally giving you all the numbers.

Break it Down

If you’ve been following the series on this topic, you’ll know that SFR breaks down a fielder’s performance on batted balls by hit type and batter handedness. Although we haven’t shown it in the past, this means that a fielder’s total SFR can be sliced by these dimensions. For example, when looking at Grady Sizemore‘s +16.9 SFR rating (denominated in runs) in center field for the Indians in 2007, we see that on fly balls he was +20.4, on line drives he was -2.7, and on groundballs he was -0.8. This is contrasted with the RoyalsDavid DeJesus, who graded out at +13.8 runs, but with a fly-ball rate of +6.3, line-drive rate at +8.7, and ground-ball rate at -0.8. To some extent it is likely that these differences reflect differences in positioning and/or the ability to cut off line drives and groundballs in the gaps, and also to a lesser extent the factors we haven’t controlled for, including base/out situation, score, and plain old randomness. In this case, it could indicate that DeJesus plays a bit shallower than Sizemore, and hence catches more line drives that would otherwise go for hits but gives up more fly ball hits to deep center or the alleys in the process. So, let’s look at our leaders and trailers in each of the three hit types by position in 2007:

Table 1: Leaders in Fly Ball SFR for 2007
                               Fly Balls     Line Drives   Groundballs   Total
Name           Field     AdjG  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR
Coco Crisp     Center   135.3    422   26.4    199   13.4     88   -0.5    709   39.2
Grady Sizemore Center   157.1    415   20.4    222   -2.7    154   -0.8    791   16.9
Carlos Beltran Center   138.2    399   19.0    212    3.3     97   -1.0    708   21.4
Matt Holliday  Left     154.3    278   12.9    258   12.1    127    1.3    663   26.3
Luke Scott     Right     91.3    188   11.7    131    6.6     69   -0.8    388   17.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M. Cuddyer     Right    136.3    306  -12.4    169    3.4     93    0.3    568   -8.7
Chris Duncan   Left      83.3    177  -13.3    162   -6.0     62    0.0    401  -19.3
Ryan Freel     Center    49.6    153  -13.5     85    3.9     43   -0.3    281   -9.9
Raul Ibanez    Left     123.9    225  -13.8    238   -2.1    108   -0.8    571  -16.7
Pat Burrell    Left     114.7    198  -16.7    173   -0.1     97    0.8    468  -16.0
Table 2: Leaders in Line Drive SFR for 2007
                               Fly Balls     Line Drives   Groundballs   Total
Name           Field     AdjG  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR
Austin Kearns  Right    153.6    360    1.3    248   13.7    109    0.8    717   15.7
Coco Crisp     Center   135.3    422   26.4    199   13.4     88   -0.5    709   39.2
Matt Holliday  Left     154.3    278   12.9    258   12.1    127    1.3    663   26.3
Jeremy Hermida Right    109.8    237    7.7    186    9.2     82    1.4    505   18.3
David DeJesus  Center   150.8    411    6.3    239    8.7    107   -1.2    757   13.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ken Griffey Jr.Right    129.8    296   -0.7    226   -9.1     93    1.7    615   -8.1
Brian Giles    Right    118.3    242  -12.1    159   -9.3     71   -0.8    472  -22.1
Trot Nixon     Right     75.3    145   -4.3     98   -9.4     45    0.3    288  -13.5
Jason Bay      Left     138.0    285    0.7    282  -11.7    115    1.4    682   -9.6
Mark Teahen    Right    128.6    350   -6.5    237  -12.8     84   -1.5    671  -20.8

Interestingly, Austin Kearns sees almost his entire positive rating generated by his +13.7 in line-drive SFR. It should be noted that Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus system likes Kearns as well, and had him at +18, good enough for him to rank second overall in right field.

Table 3: Leaders in Ground Ball SFR for 2007
                               Fly Balls     Line Drives   Groundballs   Total
Name           Field     AdjG  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR  Balls    SFR
Alexis Rios    Right    139.7    238    0.9    217    2.0     92    2.6    547    5.5
Barry Bonds    Left      93.6    174   -5.6    142   -5.9     53    2.2    369   -9.4
Scott Hairston Left      62.8    110   -1.9    108    2.8     46    1.8    264    2.8
Andre Ethier   Right     87.2    180    3.1    127    3.5     75    1.8    382    8.4
J.D. Drew      Right    118.1    212   -1.0    149    6.3     65    1.8    426    7.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jack Cust      Right     42.4     82    0.6     73   -7.6     35   -3.0    190   -9.9
Bobby Abreu    Right    148.7    327   -7.5    225   -1.6     79   -3.4    631  -12.6
Jeff Francoeur Right    160.7    362   10.1    189   -1.2    103   -3.6    654    5.2
Carlos Lee     Left     152.6    283   -2.3    240   -0.3    137   -4.7    660   -7.3
Delmon Young   Right    126.6    267   -6.6    197    4.2     76   -5.0    540   -7.3

Since Alex Rios drifts up to the top of the list, one’s first inclination might be that a fielder’s throwing arm is a factor in the ground-ball component of SFR. After all, almost all groundballs fielded by outfielders are hits, so any difference in the total number of bases taken by the batter from what’s expected is due to the fielder’s ability to stop the batter from stretching hits. Clearly, a component of an outfielder’s ability to prevent advancement by the batter is the reputation of his throwing arm, and to a lesser extent his actual outfield kills. In Rios was have an outfielder who ranked fourth in baseball in theoretical runs contributed with his arm (a park-adjusted metric derived from the baserunning framework I developed and described in detail in an essay in Baseball Prospectus 2008), at +9.1 runs. However, while throwing arm is clearly a component and will therefore overlap to some extent, it appears that it is the smaller factor, as Jeff Francoeur and Delmon Young, both of whom rank in the top five in throwing as well, nevertheless find themselves in the bottom half of Table 3.

The One Rate to Rule Them All

As mentioned above, we haven’t yet discussed a rate statistic in SFR terms. To correct for that omission, we can calculate a simple rate per 650 balls fielded (roughly the average for an outfielder who plays 162 adjusted games). The leaders and trailers for 2007 by position for those players who fielded 150 or more balls are shown here:

Table 4: Center Field Leaders and Trailers for 2007 in SFR Rate
Name              POS       AdjG  Balls    SFR  SFR/650
Felix Pie         Center    47.3    198   12.2    40.1
Covelli Crisp     Center   135.3    709   39.2    36.0
Alfredo Amezaga   Center    71.8    381   12.2    20.8
Johnny Damon      Center    42.0    228    7.2    20.5
Carlos Beltran    Center   138.2    708   21.4    19.6
-------------------------------------------------------
Marlon Byrd       Center    55.3    254   -6.0   -15.4
Billy Hall        Center   114.4    592  -14.1   -15.5
Ryan Freel        Center    49.6    281   -9.9   -22.9
Nick Swisher      Center    53.4    295  -12.4   -27.2
Tike Redman       Center    25.7    161   -8.5   -34.1

For the Cubs, Felix Pie is certainly ready to take up the reins defensively; it just remains to be seen how well he’ll adjust at the plate. In fact, Pie’s 40.1 rate was second only to Terrence Long‘s 2004 rate of 40.6 for all outfielders since 2003. Meanwhile, on the other side of town, one wonders whether a full season of Nick Swisher in center is such a good idea for the Sox, especially when contrasted with his encouraging right field numbers:

Table 5: Left Field Leaders and Trailers for 2007 in SFR Rate
Name              POS       AdjG  Balls    SFR  SFR/650
Matt Holliday     Left     154.3    663   26.3   25.8
Andre Ethier      Left      34.1    161    6.3   25.3
Jason Tyner       Left      34.7    170    6.2   23.8
Eric Byrnes       Left     108.4    460   16.4   23.2
Reggie Willits    Left      57.1    296   10.4   22.8
Ryan Ludwick      Left      36.3    173    5.4   20.2
------------------------------------------------------
Kevin Mench       Left      42.2    157   -4.3  -18.0
Raul Ibanez       Left     123.9    571  -16.7  -19.0
Pat Burrell       Left     114.7    468  -16.0  -22.2
Moises Alou       Left      78.3    336  -13.0  -25.1
Chris Duncan      Left      83.3    401  -19.3  -31.3

The MVP-less Matt Holliday dominates in left field, while no one could argue that any of the bottom five are being unfairly treated.

Table 6: Right Field Leaders and Trailers for 2007 in SFR Rate
Name              POS       AdjG  Balls    SFR  SFR/650
Luke Scott        Right     91.3    388   17.6   29.4
Jeremy Hermida    Right    109.8    505   18.3   23.6
Carlos Quentin    Right     64.4    270    9.8   23.6
Vladimir Guerrero Right    103.6    414   13.8   21.6
Nick Swisher      Right     46.1    193    6.4   21.6
Andre Ethier      Right     87.2    382    8.4   14.3
------------------------------------------------------
Joe Borchard      Right     31.0    164   -6.3  -24.8
Juan Encarnacion  Right     68.7    288  -12.3  -27.8
Trot Nixon        Right     75.3    288  -13.5  -30.4
Brian Giles       Right    118.3    472  -22.1  -30.4
Jack Cust         Right     42.4    190   -9.9  -33.8

Another new White Sox outfielder, Carlos Quentin, does pretty well here. Vladimir Guerrero is among the usual suspects, while Encarnacion and Giles battle it out with Trot Nixon and TTO superstar Jack Cust in the second division.

In terms of rate across seasons (2003-2007, and 1,000 or more balls fielded) the leader by a large margin is Jose Cruz Jr. at +27.8 in right field, that after his fielding 1,613 balls. In center field the leader is Sizemore at +19, while in left field Reed Johnson (+18) takes the top spot. On the flip side Ken Griffey Jr. is far and away the worst–not only in center, but at all positions–at -32.8, while Raul Ibanez just beats Manny Ramirez, -13.5 to -13.0. Our old friend Juan Encarnacion brings up the rear in right field (-12.9). The rest of the top and bottom ten are shown in Table 7:

Table 7: Best and Worst in Terms of Rate, 2003-2007 and >= 1,000 Balls Fielded
Name              Pos        SFR  Balls  SFR/650
Jose Cruz Jr.     Right     69.1   1613   27.8
Grady Sizemore    Center    73.1   2497   19.0
Reed Johnson      Left      31.5   1138   18.0
Nook Logan        Center    33.5   1291   16.9
Garret Anderson   Left      41.8   1760   15.4
Alfonso Soriano   Left      28.9   1221   15.4
Eric Byrnes       Left      28.2   1376   13.3
Ichiro Suzuki     Right     52.8   2588   13.3
Covelli Crisp     Center    38.6   1929   13.0
Carl Crawford     Left      63.2   3160   13.0
-----------------------------------------------
Brian Giles       Right    -39.1   2441  -10.4
Pat Burrell       Left     -40.8   2542  -10.4
Hideki Matsui     Left     -38.7   2367  -10.6
Moises Alou       Left     -29.8   1692  -11.5
Juan Encarnacion  Right    -47.8   2415  -12.9
Manny Ramirez     Left     -50.9   2541  -13.0
Raul Ibanez       Left     -52.2   2506  -13.5
Bernie Williams   Center   -34.8   1628  -13.9
Marquis Grissom   Center   -35.4   1514  -15.2
Ken Griffey Jr.   Center   -83.4   1653  -32.8

Tag Team

For the third of our four vignettes this week, let’s take a quick look at how SFR rates the teams in terms of their outfield defense. To make things interesting we’ll put up the outfield totals for the Plus/Minus system (released by THT) as well as those for the infield, which we showed a few weeks back.

Table 8: SFR vs Plus/Minus for 2007
            Infield         Outfield        Total
Team         SFR     P/M     SFR     P/M     SFR     P/M
BOS           30      17      51     -31      81     -14
WAS          -11     -41      33      45      22       4
COL           44      30      28     -33      72      -3
ARI            5       1      26      53      31      54
CHN           14      16      24      20      38      36
FLO          -64     -98      24      10     -40     -88
NYN           11      26      21      47      33      73
TEX            0     -23      18      21      19      -2
TOR           47      81      17      11      64      92
ANA            1      35      14     -47      15     -12
DET          -10      29      11      16       1      45
CLE          -16      -4       3      12     -13       8
NYA           -6      -3       2     -34      -4     -37
CHA          -28     -53      -1     -23     -29     -76
KCA           11      49      -3      17       8      66
LAN          -13     -28      -3      13     -17     -15
CIN          -26     -22      -4     -37     -31     -59
MIL          -49     -46      -5      44     -54      -2
PIT          -22      14      -6     -28     -28     -14
ATL           12      -1      -7      69       5      68
BAL           12      -2     -12     -12       0     -14
HOU          -18      12     -12     -29     -30     -17
MIN            5      30     -17     -36     -11      -6
PHI           11      23     -20      -4      -9      19
TBA          -43     -68     -23     -39     -66    -107
SDN           38      -6     -23      30      15      24
OAK           30      22     -26       3       4      25
SFN           37      47     -36     -31       1      16
SEA          -17     -25     -37     -24     -54     -49
SLN           13      41     -40      -5     -27      36

You’ll notice I’ve sorted the table by outfield SFR, and as you can tell the two systems, while agreeing to a large degree in the infield (correlation coefficient of 0.79), do not match nearly so well in the outfield (correlation coefficient of 0.25). Graphically, the match on outfield defense looks like this:

Figure 1: SFR vs. Plus/Minus in the Outfield for 2007

+/- in the OF, 2007

There are obviously some real outliers here. In particular, there’s Atlanta, which Plus/Minus had as the best team in baseball but which SFR shows as slightly below average, but there’s also both Boston and Colorado, which Plus/Minus rated very poorly, and whom SFR liked. It should be noted that Plus/Minus does not include any park effects, and the placement of two teams with relatively extreme parks makes one wonder what effect that has on the results. Even so, there also many teams (Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, Toronto, Texas, Chicago (NL), Florida, New York (NL), Arizona, and Washington) that the two systems substantially agree upon.

In any case, from an overall perspective, SFR likes the Red Sox (+81), Rockies (+72), and Blue Jays (+64) when infield and outfield are combined, while Tampa Bay (-66), Seattle (-54), and Milwaukee (-54) bring up the rear.

Throwing in the Towel

In our final section today, we’ll finally and officially answer the question we set out to answer when we began this journey back in December. At that time, spurred on by a question about new Twins outfielder Delmon Young, we were looking for a simple measure of total outfield defense. So now we can combine version 1.0 of the outfield SFR with the throwing metric to come up with a total defensive measure, calculated in terms of theoretical runs above or below what an average fielder would have produced (yes, as mentioned previously here is overlap between the two and no, it was not corrected for and so an exceptional thrower will likely receive a little boost). So without further ado, here are the 2007 leaderboards in total defense:

Table 9: Center Field Total Defense, 2007
                          Total            Throwing
Name                AdjG  Balls     SFR    OA    Opps    Thr  Total
Coco Crisp         135.3    709    39.2     7     529   -1.2   38.1
Carlos Beltran     138.2    708    21.4     6     560   -0.6   20.8
Alfredo Amezaga     71.8    381    12.2     8     338    3.4   15.6
Felix Pie           47.3    198    12.2     1     135    0.4   12.6
Grady Sizemore     157.1    791    16.9     3     704   -4.6   12.3
Jacque Jones        72.1    351     5.9     8     266    4.3   10.2
Nyjer Morgan        24.7    148     8.7     3     131    1.5   10.2
Nook Logan          84.4    444    13.0     2     365   -2.8   10.2
David DeJesus      150.8    757    13.8     5     646   -4.8    9.0
Melky Cabrera      119.7    680     8.3    14     638    0.7    9.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Ryan Freel          49.6    281    -9.9     3     264    2.1   -7.8
Aaron Rowand       153.1    778    -9.7    11     689    0.6   -9.1
Tike Redman         25.7    161    -8.5     1     150   -0.8   -9.2
Torii Hunter       146.4    777    -7.0     5     657   -2.6   -9.6
Hunter Pence        94.1    493    -9.6     6     419   -0.2   -9.8
Billy Hall         114.4    592   -14.1     5     535    3.0  -11.1
Mike Cameron       148.0    742    -9.3     8     648   -2.2  -11.5
Chris B. Young     140.7    729   -11.0     7     639   -0.8  -11.8
Juan Pierre        157.9    747    -6.5     4     669   -7.2  -13.7
Nick Swisher        53.4    295   -12.4     1     294   -2.0  -14.4

Despite the poor arm ratings for Crisp, Sizemore, Nook Logan, and DeJesus, all of them make the top ten, although Alfredo Amezaga, Jacque Jones, and Nyjer Morgan are clearly aided by their throwing. As expected, Juan Pierre sinks considerably once account for his lackluster throwing.

Table 10: Left Field Total Defense, 2007
                          Total            Throwing
Name                AdjG  Balls     SFR    OA    Opps    Thr  Total
Matt Holliday      154.3    663    26.3     7     630    1.5   27.8
Alfonso Soriano    118.7    546     8.9    19     531   12.6   21.5
Eric Byrnes        108.4    460    16.4     8     392   -0.8   15.6
Jason Botts         23.6    104    11.7     2      98    1.6   13.3
Ryan Church         80.3    401    10.6     3     374   -1.0    9.6
Norris Hopper       12.9     76     7.0     1      79    1.6    8.6
Reggie Willits      57.1    296    10.4     2     274   -2.5    7.9
Garret Anderson     80.6    332     5.3     7     333    2.6    7.8
Jason Tyner         34.7    170     6.2     2     147    1.2    7.4
Carlos Gomez        20.0     81     6.2     2      70    0.7    7.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Josh Willingham    131.6    558    -9.6     9     614    1.5   -8.1
Jason Bay          138.0    682    -9.6    13     746    0.8   -8.8
Manny Ramirez      110.8    463   -10.5     8     458    0.4  -10.1
Moises Alou         78.3    336   -13.0     7     334    0.6  -12.4
Barry Bonds         93.6    369    -9.4     2     336   -3.4  -12.8
Luis Gonzalez      111.0    462   -10.8     4     451   -3.1  -13.9
Adam Dunn          132.6    604    -9.9     4     594   -5.3  -15.2
Pat Burrell        114.7    468   -16.0     8     496    0.8  -15.2
Raul Ibanez        123.9    571   -16.7     9     608    1.2  -15.5
Chris Duncan        83.3    401   -19.3     5     430    1.7  -17.6

On the back of his 19 assists, Soriano challenges but still can’t surpass Holliday, while Garrett Anderson also moves up considerably.

Table 11: Right Field Total Defense, 2007
                          Total            Throwing
Name                AdjG  Balls     SFR    OA    Opps    Thr  Total
Jeremy Hermida     109.8    505    18.3     7     481    0.4   18.8
Jeff Francoeur     160.7    654     5.2    19     605   13.1   18.3
Luke Scott          91.3    388    17.6     8     351   -0.3   17.3
Austin Kearns      153.6    717    15.7     9     660    0.3   16.1
Alexis Rios        139.7    547     5.5    10     551    9.1   14.6
Vladimir Guerrero  103.6    414    13.8     6     392   -0.6   13.1
Carlos Quentin      64.4    270     9.8     2     237    0.6   10.4
Shane Victorino    102.6    461     1.0    10     443    8.0    9.0
Gabe Gross          32.4    137     7.0     2     127    1.5    8.6
J.D. Drew          118.1    426     7.1     4     382    1.3    8.4
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Lance Berkman       25.7    110    -6.9     1     104   -3.0  -10.0
Bobby Abreu        148.7    631   -12.6     6     582    1.0  -11.6
Jermaine Dye       128.8    603    -7.4     9     595   -5.1  -12.6
Shawn Green        102.4    406    -8.5     2     345   -4.3  -12.7
Jack Cust           42.4    190    -9.9     1     185   -3.0  -12.9
Mark Teahen        128.6    671   -20.8    16     628    6.7  -14.0
Juan Encarnacion    68.7    288   -12.3     2     286   -2.4  -14.7
Trot Nixon          75.3    288   -13.5     4     279   -1.4  -14.8
Ken Griffey Jr.    129.8    615    -8.1     4     564   -8.6  -16.7
Brian Giles        118.3    472   -22.1     2     444   -7.9  -30.0

Jeff Francoeur leads right fielders in throwing but still finishes second to Jeremy Hermida overall, while Rios and Shane Victorino make a push into the top ten. On the bottom half of Table 11 there is little to like, as only Mark Teahen and Bobby Abreu do themselves any favors with their arms.

To wrap up, we can take one final step. Just as we calculated a rate statistic for SFR which incorporates range, sure-handedness, and positioning, we can also create one for throwing calculated as runs per 550 opportunities. Using those two data points we can now draw some plots (you didn’t really think you’d get away without some graphs did you?) and place each outfielder in one of four quadrants, rating both his pure fielding performance and his throwing. This is shown in figures two through four for fielders with 150 or more balls fielded in 2007. Those in the upper right quadrant are both good fielders and throwers (Alfredo Amezaga, Alex Rios). Moving clockwise we see good throwers but poor fielders (Michael Cuddyer, Mark Teahen), poor throwers and poor fielders (Juan Pierre, Jack Cust), and finally ending with good fielders but poor throwers in the upper left (Johnny Damon, Nook Logan).

Figure 2: Center Field Defensive Ratings 2007

CF Def Ratings

Figure 3: Left Field Defensive Ratings 2007

LF Def Ratings

Figure 4: Right Field Defensive Ratings 2007

RF Def Ratings

Come and Get It

As a reward for your patience, and also as a way of saying thank you for all the suggestions and feedback in developing the system, you can now download a spreadsheet with all the major league data from 2003 through 2007 in separate tabs. In this file you’ll find not only the outfield SFR data broken down by hit type (as shown above), you’ll also see the throwing ratings, the rate statistics, and the total defensive metric. But you will have to create your own charts.

Thank you for reading

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Dan Fox

 

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