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January 23, 2008

BP Fantasy Beat

Middle Infield Review

by Marc Normandin

This week it is time to take a look at the middle infield, which seems to have turned into a less productive set of positions the last few seasons. At both shortstop and second base there are only a handful of players who can really help out your fantasy team, and picking from the rest seems more like an exercise in trying to avoid creating a sinkhole position. Using 2007 performance, we'll try to sort out some of the latter group today.

Rickie Weeks came on strong after a short stint in the minor leagues and a poor first half of the season to finish the year at .235/.374/.433. Weeks did generate 26.1 VORP, 14^th among second basemen, but while this line seems decent enough, there is room for improvement. His BABIP was .289, right around the league average, but his liner rate of 17.1 percent was well under his career mark (and a couple of points below average for everybody) so far. He hit more fly balls than normal while cutting down on his grounders as well, but he didn't see his power move up as much as he could have, in part thanks to an increase in infield flies. Weeks pops up often, coming in at 14.8 percent and 17.4 percent of all fly balls the past two years. If he can cut down on that even a little bit while hitting a few more liners, we should see his batting average climb. Weeks did manage to hit .273/.442/.553 from August 10 onward, but that may be a bit lofty to expect over a full season.

Considering he's just 25 years old and coming back from injuries that hampered his development, the idea that Weeks can improve by leaps and bounds isn't out of the realm of possibility, and a .270/.400/.500 campaign in 2008 doesn't seem improbable. Just try not to reach for him too soon at your draft or auction, because the chance that he will burn you exists as well. Gaging the next year's performance off of second-half surges or lapses can be risky, especially in small samples, but from the data we do have Weeks looks like he may have finally figured something out in his approach.

Orlando Hudson is known mostly for his defensive abilities, but he has been able to hit well the past two seasons while in Arizona. This should not come as a surprise--his home park inflates scoring--but most of Hudson's improvement has come from some improvement in his pitch recognition and an ability to get hits on ground balls. Last year's thumb injury shouldn't handicap his power in 2008 much, if at all, since most of his extra-base hits come from liners and hard-hit grounders that find a hole to the outfield, allowing him to get a double or a triple.

The one thing that you need to watch out for is his BABIP, as it was a bit higher than it should have been last season, by 16 points. That may not seem like much—adjusting his line for that inflation brings him to .278/.360/.425—but you have to remember that this is a player who has hit in offensive havens his entire career. Last year, he managed to hit .302/.382/.511 at home, against his hitting just .286/.370/.369 on the road. His three-year splits tell the same story: .295/.367/.473 at home, .274/.334/.403 on the road. This isn't a Kaz Matsui-esque Coors boost we're talking about here, but it's significant considering where Hudson may be drafted in some leagues due to his run and RBI totals at second base. If you're going to draft Hudson, make sure you do it later on in the draft when the options are scarcer; drafting a backup for Hudson's road games wouldn't be the worst idea either.