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December 3, 2007

The Mill

Day One Chatter

by Baseball Prospectus

There is a growing sense around the various lobbies and atriums of the Opryland Hotel and Resort that Johan Santana may not be going to either the New York Yankees or the Boston Red Sox. The two superpowers are trying to trade for the Twins' ace left-hander, and the Yankees want an answer by the end of the day. If the Twins and Yankees don't reach a deal, there is an increasing chance that the Red Sox will pull their various offers off the table and keep Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester. If that is the case, Minnesota would be forced to trade Santana somewhere else for what would likely be a lesser package, or just hang on to him for the 2008 season, take a run at one more American League Central title, and then lose him as a free agent next winter, and settling for the two draft picks they'd get as compensation. Santana has said he will not waive his no-trade clause during the season, which rules out a deadline deal in late July.

Kansas City continues to be the front runner to land free agent outfielder Jose Guillen. The Royals look at Guillen as the hitting version of Gil Meche, the right-hander they signed to a five-year, $55 million contract as a free agent at last year's Winter Meetings in an attempt to show that the franchise is again interested in being competitive. The Royals were criticized for signing Meche, but he wound up with a 5.3 SNLVAR last season, which ranked 17^th in the American League last season.

--John Perrotto, 3:45 p.m. ET.

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The Santana deal is still holding up the Meetings, with Twins GM Bill Smith not backing off his demands. However, the Yankees won't include Ian Kennedy or Jose Tabata, while the Red Sox won't add Clay Buchholz. Despite the Yankees' deadline, this situation is one that's not budging today. In response, the Twins are not standing still. They have already discussed a couple of deals, including two offers for Joe Nathan. Neither initial offer amounted to much, and the Twins probably aren't likely to dump Nathan in same offseason as Santana after already watching Torii Hunter depart.