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November 20, 2007

Wait 'Til Next Year

The Hawaiian Winter League Top 10

by Bryan Smith

Every winter, each organization sends its top prospects to the Arizona Fall League. Most every team has a problem with the league, but for years the lack of a better alternative left them with no choice when a project prospect needed some extra work. Despite an environment that strongly favors hitters, organizations continued to use the AFL as a way gauger the abilities of a number of their farmhands and organizational players.

In 2006, Major League Baseball attempted to help amend some of the problems built into the AFL by re-instituting the Hawaii Winter Baseball league. The league features a mixture of American and Japanese players, and offers a much more neutral—or even pitching-friendly environment—than the dry heat of Arizona could offer. The league’s first season was a success, as alumni like Joba Chamberlain have already gone onto successful following seasons in the minor leagues. While the HWB is seen as a stepping stone before the Arizona Fall League, it is building towards becoming a full-fledged alternative.

Many organizations use the HWB as a precursor to the Arizona Fall League, and send untested players—guys like Brad Suttle or Brant Rustich—to the Pacific. Some, like the Red Sox with Jason Place and Daniel Bard, send low-level projects to given them added repetitions to try and improve on already-disappointing seasons. Numerous organizations send hitters with approach problems, because of the perfect test from the Japanese that awaits them in the mixed HWB, where the pitchers from the Far East offer a backwards-style approach to pitching that leaves hitters adapting to different sequences of pitches.

“The Japanese pitchers were very good this year,” said Honolulu Sharks manager Randy Ingle. “It’s good for the American hitters because they see 3-1, 3-2 breaking balls.” While many of the Japanese pitchers had solid strikeout rates as a result of their breaking ball-first pitching styles, the developmental league offers good lessons for young hitters. As the HWB continues to evolve and find its place amidst the fall baseball landscape, look for organizations to send fastball-hungry hitters to Hawaii more often.

This season, Hawaii proved to be a good antidote for the Arizona Fall League, as the average hitter’s .257/.343/.396 season was a far cry from the AFL’s loftier numbers. The league’s neutral environment allowed for a good balance to be struck between hitters and pitchers, as well as between American and Japanese players. After conversations in the last week with coaches around the Hawaii Winter Baseball league, here are my top 10 Major League Baseball prospects from the league in 2007: