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November 9, 2007

Prospectus Matchups

A First for the Ages

by Jim Baker

The Rookie of the Year Awards will be announced on Monday, and whether he wins or merely places, Troy Tulowitzki’s 2007 campaign deserves to be looked at in historical context. Overshadowed for most of the season by the hitting of Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun, it really wasn’t until Colorado went on its wild ride that people began to notice that Double-T was putting together one of the better rookie years in modern memory. Taking into account his outstanding defense (46/24 FRAR/FRAA), the quality of his rookie season goes way beyond mere modern comparisons. In fact, his WARP3 of 10.8 is the 15^th-best rookie showing since 1876. Today we’ll look at the 14 men who preceded Tulowitzki, with better inaugural campaigns to discover the sort of company he’s now keeping.

14.2 WARP3: Kid Nichols, 1890 Boston Beaneaters
Age at start of rookie season: 20 years, 8 months
Sophomore season WARP3: 11.0
Number of times topped in career: None

While Nichols never again attained the heights of 1890 again, he did crack double figures in WARP3 seven times, and came close once. He also lived long enough to be enshrined in Cooperstown at the age of 79. He’s probably never before been referred to as “The Greatest Rookie Sensation Ever,” so let’s do it now.

13.1: Dick Allen, 1964 Philadelphia Phillies
Age at start of rookie season: 22 years, 1 month
Sophomore season WARP3: 9.6
Number of times topped in career: None

Allen’s defense did a lot to keep him from ever again repeating his rookie success--his career FRAA of -97 detracted greatly from that mighty career BRAA mark of 587. One can’t help but wonder if his whole career would have turned out differently if the Phillies hadn’t collapsed down the stretch that year.