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October 31, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

Offseason Plans, NL West

by Nate Silver

This is the last of a six-part preview of the impending offseason. Once I hit the ‘submit’ button and send this article to Christina, my column output is likely to be sporadic over the next several weeks as I tend to BP2K8 and PECOTA. I’ll still be pitching in on Unfiltered in the meantime, and we’ll have plenty of coverage for you as the stove turns from lukewarm to white hot.

Part I: AL Central
Part II: NL Central
Part III: AL West
Part IV: NL East
Part V: AL East

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Arizona Diamondbacks
2007 Record: 90-72, first place
2007 Attendance: 2.3 million, 12^th in the NL
2007 Payroll: $52 million, 26^th in MLB
Key Free Agents (2007): RHPs Livan Hernandez and Bob Wickman, 1B-S Tony Clark
Key Free Agents (2008): 2B-S Orlando Hudson, LHP Randy Johnson, RHPs Juan Cruz and Brandon Lyon
Key-Long Term Commitments: RHP Brandon Webb, $6.0M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option; OF-R Eric Byrnes, $10M/year through 2010; LHP Doug Davis, $8.25M/year through 2009; 4C-L Chad Tracy, $4.25M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: OF-Rs Justin Upton and Carlos Quentin, INF-R Mark Reynolds, MI-S Alberto Callaspo, C-L Miguel Montero, RHPs Max Scherzer, Yusmeiro Petit, and Dustin Nippert, LHP Dana Eveland
Needs: 1. One, maybe two quality SP; 2. A big-impact bat
What They Should Do: Weak Buy. There are a couple of countervailing trends to consider. First, as we’ve been reminded many times, this was a club that allowed more runs than it scored--if you simulated the past season a million times, the 2007 Diamondbacks would usually have finished closer to .500 than to 90 wins. And the bullpen isn’t quite as good as advertised, since you had a lot of guys who compiled great ERAs on the back of average peripherals. On the other hand, the core position player talent is remarkably young and played better down the stretch, and the D’backs will have several assets coming back into play that they couldn’t showcase in October, including Hudson, Johnson, and Tracy. If they did literally nothing this winter, Arizona would most likely field an 85-win club in 2008.

That is, of course, right at the range where adding a little bit of talent can go a long way, since there are a tremendous number of National League teams in that same territory. There’s an obvious place to upgrade in the starting pitching department; Webb, Davis, Micah Owings, and Johnson are a credible front four, but there’s a big drop-off after that (plus, there’s no guarantee that Johnson will pitch the entire season). One intriguing fit could be Greg Maddux, if the Padres do not pick up his option; he’s still a groundball pitcher, and he could take advantage of Orlando Hudson’s vacuum-like defense at second base. Otherwise, most of the alternatives require use of the trade market. Nick Piecoro mentions Cliff Lee, Ervin Santana, and Daniel Cabrera as possible alternatives. All of those make sense, particularly the latter two, and the Diamondbacks have some excess assets like Chad Tracy and Carlos Quentin to utilize.
What They Will Do: Weak Buy. I expect the Diamondbacks to adopt this philosophy, but it might he harder to get full value for pieces like Quentin than they recognize.