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October 30, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

Offseason Plans, AL East

by Nate Silver

This is the fifth of six-part preview of the impending off-season. I had been holding off on the two divisions involving World Series combatants until the games had concluded, but with the Series’ hasty conclusion on Sunday--and Scott Boras’ equally quick declaration that it’s A-Rod Huntin’ Season--now is the time to cover the AL East, where all five teams will have some very interesting decisions to make.

Part I: AL Central
Part II: NL Central
Part III: AL West
Part IV: NL East

Boston Red Sox
2007 Record: 96-66, first place
2007 Attendance: 3.0 million, fourth in the AL
2007 Payroll: $143 million, second in MLB
Key Free Agents (2007): 3B-R Mike Lowell, RHPs Curt Schilling, Eric Gagne, Mike Timlin, and Matt Clement, 4C-L Eric Hinske, C-R Doug Mirabelli, RHPs Tim Wakefield and Julian Tavarez (club options)
Key Free Agents (2008): C-S Jason Varitek, MI-L Alex Cora, RHP Brendan Donnelly, LF-R Manny Ramirez (club option), LHP Hideki Okajima (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments: RF-L J.D. Drew, $14M/year through 2011; DH-L David Ortiz, $12.5M/year through 2010, plus 2011 club option; RHP Josh Beckett, $10M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option; SS-R Julio Lugo, $9M/year through 2010, plus 2011 vesting option; RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, $8.8M/year through 2011; CF-S Coco Crisp, $5.25M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: CF-L Jacoby Ellsbury, RHP Clay Buchholz, LHP Jon Lester, OF-L Brandon Moss, SS-S Jed Lowrie, RHPs Justin Masterson, Michael Bowden, and Craig Hansen
Needs: 1. 3B, if Lowell departs; 2. A starting pitcher, if Schilling departs.
What They Should Do: Weak Sell. The Red Sox can give away talent and still have the best 2008 club in baseball, perhaps alone in the majors other than the similarly deep Indians. I would certainly re-up Wakefield, whose option is cheap, and make a reasonable effort to re-sign both Schilling and Lowell, but there are reasonable contingency plans if either ask for too much money. If Schilling departs, you could still have a very capable rotation of Beckett/Matsuzaka/Buchholz/Wakefield/Lester. If Lowell leaves, you could move Kevin Youkilis to third base, David Ortiz back to first, make Manny your DH, and go with an outfield of Ellsbury/Crisp/Drew. That would give up quite a bit of infield defense, but would make most of it back up in the outfield. Alternatively, if you re-sign Lowell, you can trade Crisp for a prospect, targeting a corner outfielder or a catcher. Either way, the Red Sox should be getting a little cheaper and a little younger, while at worst only marginally affecting the quality of the 2008 team. A more severe iteration of this plan would be to deal Julio Lugo and give Jed Lowrie the shortstop position, but the Red Sox will probably need to wait for Lugo to have a better season and regain some trade value before they can do that.
What They Will Do: Hold. I’d guess that in the wake of his World Series MVP, the Red Sox will be willing to apply the precedent they established for Jason Varitek, and give Lowell one more year on his contract than they might give him otherwise. I’d also guess that if Schilling goes--and he’s more likely to leave than Lowell--the Red Sox will target some sort of fourth starter type in the free agent market. Both of these are perfectly defensible decisions.

Doing something drastic like going after Alex Rodriguez, on the other hand, is neither particularly defensible nor particularly likely. The Red Sox do well enough on the field, at the gate, and in player development that they have little reason to overpay for someone when there are palatable alternatives, and this is the one environment where I think concerns about A-Rod’s clubhouse and media distractions are tangible enough to weigh into your decision.

New York Yankees
2007 Record: 94-68, second place
2007 Attendance: 4.3 million, first in the AL
2007 Payroll: $190 million, first in MLB
Key Free Agents (2007): 3B-R Alex Rodriguez, RHPs Mariano Rivera, Roger Clemens, and Luis Vizcaino, 1B-L Doug Mientkiewicz, C-R Jose Molina, C-S Jorge Posada (player option), LHP Andy Pettitte (player option), RF-L Bobby Abreu (club option)
Key Free Agents (2008): RHPs Mike Mussina and Kyle Farnsworth, DH-L Jason Giambi (club option), RHP Carl Pavano (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments: SS-R Derek Jeter, $20.3M/year through 2010; OF-L Johnny Damon, $13M/year through 2009; LF-L Hideki Matsui, $13M/year through 2009; LHP Kei Igawa, $4M/year through 2011
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: RHPs Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Allan Horne, Tyler Clippard and Edwar Ramirez, OF-S Melky Cabrera, INF-S Wilson Betemit, OF-R Shelley Duncan
Needs: 1. 3B; 2. C, OF, and/or Closer, depending on who departs and who sticks around; 3. 1B
What They Should Do: Weak Sell. It’s safe to assume that no team has ever had this much talent coming off the books at any one time. So let’s start by considering what assets the Yankees still have locked into place. The starting rotation should not need Andy Pettitte to return, nor really need any outside help at all--a staff consisting of Chamberlain, Kennedy, Hughes, plus veterans Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina, could be one of the better groups in the American League, and there are ample reserves at hand in the form of Clippard, Igawa, Horne, and possibly even Carl Pavano. Yes, there are contingencies where several things could go wrong, but that’s just as true for the other 29 MLB clubs. The middle infield, with Derek Jeter and the strangely underrated Robinson Cano, is lock-solid. Jason Giambi should be back in the DH slot, provided he can stay healthy. An outfield of Damon, Cabrera and Matsui, with Shelley Duncan a candidate for work against left-handed pitching, is probably about league average.