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October 23, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

Offseason Plans, NL East

by Nate Silver

This is the fourth of a six-part preview of the impending off-season. In today's edition, we hop on the Acela and take a tour of the National League East.

Part I: AL Central
Part II: NL Central
Part III: AL West

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Philadelphia Phillies
2007 Record: 89-73, first place
2007 Attendance: 3.1 million, sixth in the NL
2007 Payroll: $89 million, 13^th in MLB
Key Free Agents (2007): CF-R Aaron Rowand, 2B-R Tadahito Iguchi, INF-S Abraham Nunez, C-R Rod Barajas (club option declined), RHPs Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Kyle Lohse, Antonio Alfonseca, and Jose Mesa, LHP J.C. Romero
Key Free Agents (2008): LF-R Pat Burrell, 1B/3B-R Wes Helms (club option), LHP Jamie Moyer, RHP Tom Gordon (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments: 2B-L Chase Utley, $13.1M/year through 2013; RHP Brett Myers, $10.25M/year through 2009; SS-S Jimmy Rollins, $7.3M/year through 2010, plus 2011 club option; RHP Adam Eaton, $8.1M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: CF-L Michael Bourn, OF-R Jayson Werth, C-R Carlos Ruiz, RHP Carlos Carrasco
Needs: 1. 3B; 2. Two top SP; 3. Relief depth; 4. C, maybe
What They Should Do: Weak Buy. The Phillies are in a bit of an odd position. They have four superstar-caliber talents in Utley, Rollins, Cole Hamels, and Ryan Howard, all of whom should be under club control for at least the next four seasons. Beyond them, though, the roster is something of a blank slate; there are a lot of contracts coming off the books between this winter and next, and there are few high-impact players in the farm system. Fundamentally, a team with four superstars should be in a position to reach the World Series if they can be league-average everywhere else, and that's what the Phillies should aim for. That would probably mean letting Aaron Rowand go and not attempting to sign another center fielder, and making do with some combination of Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Michael Bourn between center and right field. It also means being comfortable with Carlos Ruiz as your catcher. On the other hand, it would behoove Pat Gillick to increase his payroll by a net $10-$20 million, spending some of that on a solid third baseman and at least three decent pitchers between the rotation and the bullpen. Mike Lowell is the obvious target at the hot corner, and given what's out there on the market, the Phillies would probably be better served to re-convert Brett Myers to the starting rotation and aim for relief pitching instead. This would a pretty interesting fit for Alex Rodriguez, which might give the Phillies the best infield of all time.
What They Will Do: Weak Buy. The writing is on the wall because the Phillies' needs are so obvious, and here's guessing that Pat Gillick will read it.

New York Mets
2007 Record: 88-74, second place
2007 Attendance: 3.8 million, second in the NL
2007 Payroll: $115 million, third in MLB
Key Free Agents (2007): LHP Tom Glavine (player option), C-Rs Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro, 2B-S Luis Castillo, UT-S Jose Valentin, OF-R Moises Alou (club option), RF-L Shawn Green (club option)
Key Free Agents (2008): RHPs Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez, and Guillermo Mota, LHP Oliver Perez, OF-L Endy Chavez, 1B-L Carlos Delgado (club option)
Key Long-Term Commitments: CF-S Carlos Beltran, $18.5M/year through 2011; LHP Billy Wagner, $10.5M/year through 2009, plus 2010 club option; 3B-R David Wright, $10.3M/year through 2012, plus 2013 club option; SS-S Jose Reyes, $6.25M/year through 2010, plus 2011 club option; LHP Scott Schoenweis, $3.6M/year through 2009
Key Ready-Now Youngsters: OF-Rs Lastings Milledge and Carlos Gomez, RHPs Mike Pelfrey, Phil Humber, and Ambiorix Burgos, 2B-S Ruben Gotay
Needs: 1. C; 2. SP; 3. 2B
What They Should Do: Weak Buy. Repeat after me: there is no need to panic. The Mets absolutely have to find themselves a catcher, since both Paul Lo Duca and Ramon Castro are free agents. They need to re-sign Moises Alou in left field, but not Shawn Green in right, instead leaving the job to Lastings Milledge. And they may need to sign or re-sign a second baseman, as Ruben Gotay might or might not be a capable regular. But none of those swaps should require a substantial increase in payroll, and the starting pitching isn’t the disaster that it seems, since even assuming that Tom Glavine departs, Pedro Martinez has been resuscitated to take his place. Sure, it wouldn’t hurt if the Mets increased their spending a little, giving the 3.8 million fans who turned out to Shea Stadium last year something to chew on. But with Citi Field set to open in 2009, it’s more the talk radio jocks than the fans that need to be placated.
What They Will Do: Strong Buy. It’s not like Omar Minaya needs many excuses to be aggressive, and he’ll have several after the Mets’ performance in September. Let’s hope that youngsters like Milledge and Fernando Martinez aren’t collateral damage.