Lies, Damned Lies: Off... (10/18)
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October 18, 2007 Schrodinger's BatThe Baserunning Edition
"Never trust a baserunner who's limping. Comes a base hit, and you'll think
he just got back from Lourdes." Yes, it's that time of year again. No, I don't mean the postseason, exciting as that is as we gear up for the (almost) inevitable Rockies/Indians matchup. No, this kind of excitement can only be generated as we break out the baserunning numbers for 2007. We'll skip the long introduction that connects today's topic with an event or concept from science or history, but only say that, as described in a previous column, I've added a fifth category to track runner advancement on wild pitches, passed balls, and balks, which is creatively termed Equivalent Other Advancement Runs, or EqOAR for short. Also, keep in mind that all of these metrics are based on the concept of run expectancy (and now all uniformly use three-year averages) and are measured in terms of theoretical runs above what would be expected given the number and context of the opportunities in which the runners find themselves. So let's dig right in and go through the 2007 leaders and trailers in the five categories before cooking up the whole enchilada. Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs First, let's take a look at advancing on ground outs: Name GAOpps EqGAR Dave Roberts 41 2.81 Rafael Furcal 53 2.36 Aaron Rowand 34 1.80 Reggie Willits 25 1.70 Luis Rodriguez 6 1.16 Joey Gathright 23 1.14 Matthew Kemp 16 1.14 Melky Cabrera 34 1.13 Coco Crisp 36 1.11 Brad Ausmus 40 1.07 -------------------------------- Andruw Jones 28 -1.25 Dmitri Young 20 -1.26 Jorge Posada 34 -1.30 Mark DeRosa 24 -1.36 Ron Belliard 36 -1.38 Freddy Sanchez 32 -1.38 Aramis Ramirez 27 -1.40 Joe Mauer 25 -1.54 Jason Kubel 21 -1.59 Alex Gordon 29 -1.59
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Team Health Reports: Washington Nationals