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September 6, 2007

Schrodinger's Bat

Wily Mo Redux

by Dan Fox

"His power is unbelievable. He's like a 'Little Papi,' and I know that when his time comes, he will be a good player. Nobody hits the ball like Mo--nobody."
--David Ortiz on his now former teammate

In my inaugural column in this space back in March of 2006, I took a look at the prospects of outfielder Wily Mo Pena. Days before, he had been traded from the Reds to the Red Sox for Bronson Arroyo. Several times since then, readers have asked whether I had anything else to add given his 2006-2007 performances. So, at long last, today we'll take another look at the fortunes and prospects of Wily Mo.

Catching Up

Many thought that 2007 would be Pena's breakout year. After sustaining a fractured hamate bone which put him on the shelf for two months in 2006, and a strained left quadriceps that held him out of action for a month in 2005, the hope was that he could build on his career highs in OBP and batting average (.301/348/.487). This hope came despite the fact that those gains were largely fueled by a .411 batting average on balls in play.

Matters changed a bit with the acquisition of J.D. Drew over the winter. the plan was to use Pena against left-handed starters, and spot start him against right-handers. The assumption may also have been that he could come off the bench against the occasional situational lefty, but alas, as Nate Silver commented, this might not show Pena's best side. In any case, we know what often happens to the best laid plans and Pena got off to a rough start; he hit .172 in April while striking out in more than half of his at-bats. He rebounded in May--although he hit only one home run and two doubles--but then slumped again in June and July, hitting a combined .220/.272/.378. This all but sealed his fate in Boston; he became expendable so that the Sox could add a starting pitcher. The trade rumors that swirled around Pena primarily involved his being dealt to the White Sox in a package that would net Jermaine Dye. When that fell through at the trade deadline, Pena cleared trade waivers and was finally dealt to the Nationals on August 17th, where Jim Bowden, apparently trying to corner the market on former Reds outfielders, picked him up for a player to be named later; the Sox also picked up some cash.