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August 30, 2007

Future Shock

Ian Kennedy

by Kevin Goldstein

With two days remaining before the September crunch, the Yankees are still in a position they’re not used to-–on the outside looking in. Seven games behind the Red Sox, our own Playoff Odds Report gives the Bronx Bombers less than a four percent chance to walk away with the American League East title, which they have done in each of the last nine years. The good news is that they have right around a 60/40 shot at the wild card–-currently a three-team race that also features Seattle and Detroit.

While it’s hard to talk about what’s gone wrong for a team with a 74-59 record, pitching is the reason New York's nine-year run of American League East titles is coming to an end this year. The offense leads the American League by hitting .291/.364/.465 as a team and averaging a whopping 5.9 runs per games, but the pitching staff and defense, giving up 4.8 per contest, ranks eighth of 14 teams. The team has had its share of injuries, but also its share of ineffectiveness. While nobody (not even the Yankees) expected stardom, Japanese import Kei Igawa was supposed to be a solid back-of-the-rotation option, but instead he lasted 12 games with a near-seven ERA before going to the minors. Dealing with the injuries and waiting for Roger Clemens, rookies like Tyler Clippard (6.33 ERA in six starts) and Matt DeSalvo (6.18 in his six) weren’t up to the task, and while Philip Hughes was, he went and got hurt himself.

Now, after struggling much of the year, the usually dependable Mike Mussina has completely fallen off the cliff, especially in his last three starts:

Date   IP  H  R ER BB SO
8/16  5.0  9  7  6  2  2
8/21  1.2  7  7  7  2  1
8/27  3.0  9  6  6  1  0
TOT   9.2 25 20 19  5  3

On Wednesday, manager Joe Torre and his staff decided to skip Mussina’s next turn in the rotation. In previous years, this would call for some minor league veteran like Darren Hall or Darrell May or Donovan Osborne to make the spot start, but the Yankees are doing something different this year. First off, there are no such players in their current Triple-A rotation for the first time in ages–-they’re all prospects of varying degrees. Secondly, Joe Torre has learned a valuable lesson this year, one that will serve him well now that the Yankees actually have a good minor league system-–sometimes, going with the kid is the right choice. His evidence is simply Joba Chamberlain, who is quickly becoming a legend, despite pitching in just eight games. In those eight games, Chamberlain has delivered ten innings of shutout baseball, allowing just four hits and three walks while striking out 17. The overwhelming majority of his appearances have made the SportsCenter highlight reel, and how many non-closing relievers can say that, unless they’re giving up the big hit?