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August 7, 2007

Wait 'Til Next Year

Minor League Leadoff Hitters, Ranked

by Bryan Smith

Every June, the minor leagues are flooded with a new group of small, fast, up-the-middle players. Scouting directors take flyers on leadoff types in droves annually, and all the players have one thing in common: speed. However, the success rate of these players is especially poor, so over two previous articles, I have explored the traits beyond speed that good leadoff hitters have shown most often in the minor leagues. The quick five:

1. College numbers shouldn't cloud perspective on a player's tools; big programs have bad success rates with producing leadoff hitters.
   
2. The development of power is essential for a leadoff hitter to be good, so showing the capability for muscle growth at a young age is a must.
   
3. While power should be developed, it should also be somewhat apparent at a young age, with one home run per 200 at-bats (or less) in Low-A a worthwhile cutoff.
   
4. A player should increase his ability to make contact as he progresses through the minor leagues, and players shouldn't whiff in a quarter of their at-bats even in the minors.
   
5. Speed shouldn't overshadow a player's ability to draw a walk, as Doug Glanville types aren't very different than the players that made up my "Ugly" group.

With these rules in mind, I dove into the deep current crop of leadoff hopefuls in the minor leagues to try to predict those who will sink and the few who might swim. Here are 15 prospects, listed in alphabetical order, with their corresponding 2007 numbers and commentary about how their skill sets could fall into one of our pre-designed traps.

Peter Bourjos, CF, Angels, 20

Level(s)         AB       AVG        OBP        SLG       K       SB       CS
A-              131      .260       .329       .389      32       14        4

Last season I ranked Bourjos as the Pioneer League's sixth-best prospect on the heels of a campaign in which he showed elite speed and defensive skills as well as impressive gap-to-gap power. Bourjos has the body for the position--at 6'1", 175, there is room for him to add muscle to his frame--and he already hits for some power. The problem in 2007, as it was in the Pioneer League, is that Bourjos too often gets long with his swing. I'll overlook slightly below-average patience for now and focus on a strikeout rate that will need a significant jump downward for Bourjos to stay on our leadoff list.