The Mill

Thursday Update

by Baseball Prospectus

We won't know for a while if the Padres or Brewers got the best end of this deal. A lot depends on whether Will Inman develops or not. I've heard scouts on both sides. Joe Thatcher is an Indy native picked up out of the Frontier League, so while his results have been fine, he's the very definition of free talent, something the Brewers really understand. Scott Linebrink is a nice acquisition for Milwaukee, in part because they believe in pitching coach Mike Maddux's ability to make quick fixes. Also, don't discount the value of the draft picks the Brewers will get when/if Linebrink leaves.

The Mariners are looking for pitching, but so is everyone else. Until they offer up more than Wladimir Balentien and a reliever, they're not going to get the answer they want, especially when asking about quality starters. Livan Hernandez? Maybe, but sources tell me that the M's don't want to bring in someone who hasn't pitched in the AL. One name that was pitched to me was Shawn Chacon, who's pitched pretty well in Pittsburgh.

Here's an interesting possible move--while everyone's looking at the Red Sox needs now, maybe they're looking to deal Moneyball-style. If everyone is currently overvalued at the trade deadline, maybe someone coming up will be undervalued. Does a Wily Mo Pena for Andy LaRoche deal make sense? Maybe not at first look, but for me it does. The Dodgers could use the power, and it would free up an outfielder to trade for a reliever like Octavio Dotel.

Names I'm not hearing: Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Matt Garza, Scott Baker. With all those pitchers in a wafer-thin seller's market, you'd figure Terry Ryan and the Twins could find some way to get a guy for the DH slot. OK, he had Justin Morneau there today, but he also had a guy with 23, 13, 9, 6, and 0 home runs in 5 of the 9 slots today. That's career home runs, not this season's totals.

Poker analogies are overused this time of year, but they work. My question--when do you push all-in if you're a GM? When do you say, "This is my last, best, final offer?" Is there ever a time when you're actually willing to stand up from the table? Right now, with 24 teams telling me that they think they're in it (they should check the Playoff Odds Report), there are teams that are bluffing. It may take well into the weekend to find out who.

--Will Carroll

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