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June 14, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

The 2008 Chicago White Sox

by Nate Silver

After having gotten swept by Philadelphia, the White Sox record now stands at 27-35, and they barely have a 1-in-1000 shot of making the playoffs. Let me be honest for a second. If I had picked any other team to go 72-90 this season, and everyone thought I was an idiot for having done so, and that team in fact played down to my expectations, I would be doing a lot of gloating about that prediction. But since that team is the White Sox, a franchise that I have a great deal of affection for, it’s been at best a bittersweet pill.

So rather than dwelling on what has happened this year, let's instead turn toward the future, and see what the White Sox need to do to return to their contending ways in 2008. To do so, we'll revitalize the Tufte Takes On… series from last year.

You’ll notice a couple of upgrades to our framework. Firstly, I’ve expanded from four to five grades of player classifications, to come up with something that better corresponds to the stars and scrubs chart on a player’s PECOTA card. That is not to say that these grades are strictly PECOTA-based; I’m accounting for performance this season as well as my own intangible feelings about how a player is likely to develop. I have also expanded the number of players that I’m including in the analysis, accounting for all players on the 40-man roster as well as a wider selection of prospects. Finally, you’ll notice that the charts themselves have been given a makeover based on some helpful reader feedback. I hope that the new look will speak for itself. Onward.